Hellen's thoughts

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🔔(UPDATE)🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to support area of 3950.
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➡️The recent confident bounce from the support area is quite telling in terms of the bulls' mood to renew the local highs again.
I think that wave “5” is developing, completing the impulse. After updating the level of 3895.22, I will advise that trades should be set trades to breakeven.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
✔️🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave 3).
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⚡️Reaching the 60 area is something I have been anticipating for quite some time and those who follow my ideas know that a downward move has always been a priority.
Therefore, I recommend either closing positions or should set trades to breakeven if you have not done so before.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18726.
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➡️In the coming week, I'm hoping for a continued upward movement, so I decided to update the forecast.
If everything goes according to plan, the price is currently starting an upward movement in the wave “3” of the middle order. I believe that the price is quite capable of reaching the resistance area at 1.18726. Despite the fact that the top of wave “1” is likely to be updated - I would still prefer a target somewhat more reliable and closer.

Fundamental context
Lately, U.S. data keeps showing signs of slowdown — especially in the labor market. The latest ADP report came out negative, and forecasts for NFP remain weak, around +50K. That eases pressure on the Fed and slightly weakens the dollar.

In Europe, inflation picked up to 2.2%, which is above the ECB’s target. It means the central bank has no reason to rush with rate cuts — giving the euro some fundamental support.

So overall, the background fits well with my technical outlook: the dollar is losing momentum, and EUR/USD might continue higher in wave “3”, targeting the resistance zone near 1.1872.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
✔️🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to support area of 3950.
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Well done.

 

[Atilla]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18726.
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➡️In the coming week, I'm hoping for a continued upward movement, so I decided to update the forecast.
If everything goes according to plan, the price is currently starting an upward movement in the wave “3” of the middle order. I believe that the price is quite capable of reaching the resistance area at 1.18726. Despite the fact that the top of wave “1” is likely to be updated - I would still prefer a target somewhat more reliable and closer.

Fundamental context
Lately, U.S. data keeps showing signs of slowdown — especially in the labor market. The latest ADP report came out negative, and forecasts for NFP remain weak, around +50K. That eases pressure on the Fed and slightly weakens the dollar.

In Europe, inflation picked up to 2.2%, which is above the ECB’s target. It means the central bank has no reason to rush with rate cuts — giving the euro some fundamental support.

So overall, the background fits well with my technical outlook: the dollar is losing momentum, and EUR/USD might continue higher in wave “3”, targeting the resistance zone near 1.1872.

I'm thinking the US markets wants to deliberately see a lower dollar. Some part of me thinks otherwise all the shenanigans about firing Powell and demading rate drop would take place behind closed doors.

I've always thought and have a bias towards the EUR/USD seeing 1.20+ sooner or later. 🤔

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884.
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➡️Colleagues, it appears that the downward movement is not over and I see several reasons to continue to look short.
The higher order wave “C” is looking to complete the correction and I expect the start of the middle order wave “3” to see the low update and reach the support area at 58.884.

📣Fundamental context
Oil remains under pressure as supply increases and demand outlook weakens. OPEC+ decided to slightly raise output for November, while U.S. inventories keep growing. Crude lost about 8% last week, and EIA now expects lower prices by the end of the year — all of which supports the idea of a continued downside move within wave “3” toward the 58.884 support area.

 

[gka]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884.
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➡️Colleagues, it appears that the downward movement is not over and I see several reasons to continue to look short.
The higher order wave “C” is looking to complete the correction and I expect the start of the middle order wave “3” to see the low update and reach the support area at 58.884.

📣Fundamental context
Oil remains under pressure as supply increases and demand outlook weakens. OPEC+ decided to slightly raise output for November, while U.S. inventories keep growing. Crude lost about 8% last week, and EIA now expects lower prices by the end of the year — all of which supports the idea of a continued downside move within wave “3” toward the 58.884 support area.

Hi Hellena, thank you for your fundamentals analysis of oil.

As you know, I have a mathematical description of markets which predicts, among other things, a short term trend channel (STTC) and a long term trend channel (LTTC). I call this model the volatility response model for FX. VRMFX for short.

I recently figured out how to predict the STTC and LTTC for oil futures. The attached daily chart for today shows the front month for oil which I understand to be the December 25 contract with the greatest open interest. The chart shows today's prediction and 99 days in the past.

The chart shows the STTC top, middle and bottom in blue and the LTTC top, middle and bottom in green. Bullish markets find support on the middle of these channels and bearish markets show resistance below the middle of these channels.

The CL.1 front month turned long term bearish and falling on the 4th August. So the VRMFX agrees with your analysis of a bearish oil market in the future.

gka

 

[Hellena Trade]

Hi Hellena, thank you for your fundamentals analysis of oil.

As you know, I have a mathematical description of markets which predicts, among other things, a short term trend channel (STTC) and a long term trend channel (LTTC). I call this model the volatility response model for FX. VRMFX for short.

I recently figured out how to predict the STTC and LTTC for oil futures. The attached daily chart for today shows the front month for oil which I understand to be the December 25 contract with the greatest open interest. The chart shows today's prediction and 99 days in the past.

The chart shows the STTC top, middle and bottom in blue and the LTTC top, middle and bottom in green. Bullish markets find support on the middle of these channels and bearish markets show resistance below the middle of these channels.

The CL.1 front month turned long term bearish and falling on the 4th August. So the VRMFX agrees with your analysis of a bearish oil market in the future.

gka

Not a bad observation. By the way, you can watch weekly contracts on CME. there are a lot of interesting things there).

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6646.
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➡️Colleagues, in the last forecast I was counting on price reaching the 6550 area, but that plan turned out to be a long term plan. I see the sense in making some shorter term targets.
The closest target I see is the 6646 support area, where wave “4” ends. This is a corrective movement, so it is necessary to realize that the price may continue to fall after reaching the target.

Fundamental context
U.S. inflation remains elevated — CPI rose to about 2.9 % YoY, with core inflation around 3.1 %. At the same time, the labor market continues to cool, and corporate earnings show mixed results. Combined with the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing fiscal uncertainty, this creates pressure on the stock market.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18726.
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the forecast didn't come true.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4104.
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➡️Colleagues, gold is going up steadily and right now it is hard to say where the correction will be. If we look at the wave structure, I expect the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the middle order wave ‘5’. because wave “5” completes the impulse - it complicates the concept of where exactly this wave will end. I think the psychological level of 4100-4105 is suitable for this target.
I expect the price to reach the 4104 resistance area.

📣Fundamental context

Gold recently broke above $4,000, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.

Central banks continue to accumulate gold, supporting demand structurally.
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 target to $4,000, citing a weak dollar and sustained global demand.

Given the strength and stretched momentum, a pullback is plausible — but the exact timing remains unclear.

 

[Atilla]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18726.
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the forecast didn't come true.

German factory orders and industrial production numbers this week, coupled with political fiasco in France has dampened the Euro yes.

However, on balance, after some pause I think it'll continue in its trend.

Historically, rise in gold meant geopolitical risk and fact US talking about making bitcoin part of bank reserve ratios are all a bit of a sign the dollar is showing signs of future vulnerability imo. Falling demand for oil and switch to cleaner energy in the long run will all make some small impact on demand for dollars too.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.16827.
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➡️Colleagues, the recent continuation of the downtrend has made me reevaluate my wave analysis a bit.
If everything is correct, we are now witnessing a correction - triangle (ABCDE).
In this case, wave “C” should not update the minimum of wave “A”. This means that I expect the upward movement to start either from the current values or after the correction is completed around 1.14876.
Then I expect the beginning of the upward movement at least to the resistance area of 1.16827 - the middle line of the triangle.

Fundamental context

The U.S. dollar is showing signs of weakness — recent labor data came out softer than expected, and markets continue to price in further Fed rate cuts. This reduces demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

At the same time, the ECB is likely to keep its current policy unchanged, as there’s limited room for additional easing. That gives the euro a slight fundamental advantage.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
✔️5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6646.
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The goal was achieved in a short time!
But now the location of the waves must be reconsidered.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
✔️🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884.
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Target reached with a good workout of resistance.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🔔(UPDATE)🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4104.
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➡️The price has updated the 4061 level and now I think it should set trades to breakeven.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56-57.
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➡️Colleagues, price is actively moving in a downward direction and I believe the move is not yet complete.
Earlier I saw this move as a big correction, but now the structure is more of an impulsive one. This means that the price is moving in the wave “3” of the higher order (Red), which should be completed soon.
For this to happen, the price needs to complete the correction in the wave “4” of medium order and then update the low, reaching the support area of 56-57.
The extension of wave “3” is possible - then the price will reach the target without correction.

📣Fundamental context
Global oil inventories are forecast to rise through 2025, putting downward pressure on prices despite efforts by some producers to restrain output.
OPEC+ has been increasing production again, which adds to the supply burden.
Meanwhile, demand forecasts have been trimmed amid softer economic growth indicators in key consuming regions.
Major banks have lowered long-term price expectations for crude — the balance is tilting toward a more bearish outlook.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.
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➡️Gold is actively rising and I believe that before the impulse ends we should see the correction that many are expecting.
As of today, I see the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the approaching start of the correction in wave “4”. It makes no sense to put any distant plans in the correction and I think that the support area of 4040 looks quite attractive.

📣Fundamental context
Gold continues its rally and recently broke new highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, global uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Central banks are still actively increasing their gold reserves — this structural demand adds support even if price pullbacks occur.
Supply growth is modest — mining output is constrained, and recycling of gold is not enough, which limits the downward pressure on prices.
Given this backdrop, the chance of a correction rises as momentum stretches — but the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for further upside once the correction completes.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
✔️EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.16827.
The price reached the target without reaching the support area. Maybe in the next forecast I will insist on this correction.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🔔(UPDATE)🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56-57.
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➡️It looks like wave “4” ended at 59.456.
This means that the downward movement will continue, but I still recommend that trades should be set trades to breakeven.