Hellen's thoughts

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): SHORT to the support area 1.15419.
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➡️The situation is quite interesting. I would not like to recommend selling, but judging by the waves, the price should update the minimum of 1.15419 and complete the wave "C" of higher order near the level of 1.15000.
Then the triangle (ABCDE) will continue to develop. And as much as I don't want to, I will insist that the price will continue the downward movement at least to the support area of 1.15419.

📣Fundamental context
The dollar continues to be under pressure - markets are increasingly laying expectations of a soon Fed rate cut due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. At the same time, the euro is receiving moderate support due to stability in the eurozone and investors' interest in alternative assets outside the dollar.
In fact, this may lead to some sideways movement, which will be expressed in the triangle (ABCDE).

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.
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The impulse continued - the forecast failed to materialize. I hate corrections)

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
🔔(UPDATE)5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6777.
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➡️The price has almost reached the target area. I think a small correction is possible today, then I expect the upward movement to continue.
I recommend to set trade to breakeven.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.
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➡️As I continued to watch oil I realized that the structure I built in the last forecast is still in place. I think we should expect a correction in wave “4” to the 59.3 area, then a continuation of the downward movement at least to the 54.00 support area. This will be the completion of the downward impulse.
I do not exclude the probability of lengthening of wave “3” and in this case there will be no correction and the price will immediately reach the target.

📣Fundamental context
The oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand, raising the risk of a surplus. Forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate higher production growth while consumption slows.
Rising inventories and a shift in the futures curve into contango suggest growing storage levels and weaker near-term demand.
Under these conditions, downside pressure persists, keeping the probability of a further decline high.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
🔔(UPDATE)🇪EUR/USD (4H): SHORT to the support area 1.15419.
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➡️The price has already overcome about half of the movement to the target area. At this stage, I think we should look out for a small correction and expect the downward movement to continue this week. When the level of 1.16000 is reached, I recommend that trades should be set trades to breakeven. In principle it can be done already now.
(Breakeven=Risk Free: Move Stop loss to the entry level).

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
✔️🥇 GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.
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⚡️I had no doubts that wave “3” has updated its maximum. Wave “4” still reached the support area and the forecast worked out its target level!

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to 61.8% Fibo of 4265.
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➡️Dear colleagues, in the new forecast the idea remains the same - the upward momentum (12345) is not yet complete.
At the moment I see the end of the formation of the corrective wave “4” at the level of 4000, as stated earlier, and the beginning of the upward movement in wave “5”.
I do not want to set distant targets, because their achievement may take time, so let's start small - the nearest target is the resistance area at 4265 - the area beyond the 61.8% level of wave “4”. I think that this is the nearest target that we should expect.

📣Fundamental context
Earlier this week, gold experienced a sharp pull-back after its recent record highs. Nothing to panic about — it’s simply a technical correction: investors are taking profits after a rapid and extended rally. Key drivers like central bank buying and lower rate expectations remain intact, so the broader bullish story is still alive. In fact, this brief dip may offer a better entry point before the next leg up.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.

The prognosis is off. I'm reanalyzing.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
✔️5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6777.
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Well done‼️

 

[Atilla]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.

The prognosis is off. I'm reanalyzing.

The oil sanctions US is pressing beginning to take effect. The news that China and India are now curbing their purchases and looking to buy from ME has sent the price up again.

Very difficult to respond to these types of news and fundamental unknown shifts in supply and demand quantities.

I think these changes may also help the dollar index a little as well.

 

[gka]

I am applying the VRMFX algorithm to spot gold and the COMEX front month gold future which is currently the December contract.

The charts below show the top, middle and bottom of the short term trend channel (STTC) in blue and the long term trend channel (LTTC) in green for tomorrow 27th October and 99 days in the past.

I am not optimistic about gold's continuing rally. The spot gold XAUUSD has fallen below the middle of its STTC currently 4159.87 and has been unable to break back up through.

The top of the STTC for GC.1 December contract is 4251.66 which is below the top of XAUUSD STTC at 4284.33. So the gold future is more pessimistic than the gold spot.

I will let you know if I see any sign of another gold rally using the VRMFX.

gka

 

[Hellena Trade]

The oil sanctions US is pressing beginning to take effect. The news that China and India are now curbing their purchases and looking to buy from ME has sent the price up again.

Very difficult to respond to these types of news and fundamental unknown shifts in supply and demand quantities.

I think these changes may also help the dollar index a little as well.

Well, it's hard to be specific right now. We all have new data every day....

We have to do more detailed analysis.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 59.00.
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➡️Colleagues, the situation is complicated, but I still expect the price to renew the local low of 56.40.
It looks like the price is forming a complex compound correction (WXY) and I think that for now it is worth looking at the 59.00 area as the nearest most likely level.
Ideally, I would like to see the completion of wave “C” in the area of 64.80.

📣Fundamental context
According to the latest IEA report, the global oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand. For 2025, production is expected to rise by around 3 million barrels per day, while demand growth is forecast at only 0.7 million barrels. This imbalance increases the risk of oversupply and inventory buildup across key regions.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
GOLD (4H): LONG to 61.8% Fibo of 4265.
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The correction took too long, the idea didn't work out.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 7000.
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➡️Colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and at the moment the formation of wave “3” is taking place, but the chart shows a gap that should be closed.
Therefore, I believe that the price can go into correction of the small wave “4” to the area of 6823, but the priority is still the upward movement, as I believe to the resistance area of 7000.

📣Fundamental context
U.S. business activity strengthened in October: the S&P Global PMI rose to 54.8, indicating expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors.
However, uncertainty persists — business sentiment and export performance have weakened, while the partial government shutdown limits data visibility.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue rate cuts as the economy shows signs of slowing.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#GOLD
🥇 GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area 4219.
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➡️Colleagues, I am not abandoning the idea that the upward movement is not over yet.

It seems that the correction in wave “4” is very long and I think that it may continue to the support area 3807 and there is an important nuance - it is quite difficult to label all this movement as wave “C”, because it contradicts some rules of wave construction, but there are exceptions and I tend to interpret the downward movement in this way.
There is one more option, which does not contradict the rules and it is a “shortened wave ”5" at 4377, and then (ABC) looks more adequate, but I will not display this option. In both cases, I expect a resumption of the move to at least the 4219 area.

📣Fundamental context
Against the current macro backdrop, gold remains well-supported: the U.S. dollar is under pressure, and bond yields continue to decline after recent weaker economic data. This environment sustains demand for safe-haven assets.
Short-term pullbacks and profit-taking after record highs appear natural — overall interest in gold stays strong, particularly amid expectations of further Fed policy easing.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
✔️EUR/USD (4H): SHORT to the support area 1.15419.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#SPX500
🔔(UPDATE)5️⃣ SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 7000.
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➡️The support area has been reached, but the gap is not fully closed. Nevertheless, I suggest looking at long positions - perhaps wave “4” has completed the correction.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#Oil
🔔(UPDATE)🛢Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 59.00.
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➡️I still do not have high hopes for the movement in wave “B” and think that perhaps this movement is already completed.
As I wrote earlier - the situation is quite tense and I am waiting for impulse waves in order to forecast most accurately.
I will most likely be making a fresh forecast because there are some changes in the wave markup.

 

[Hellena Trade]

#EURUSD
EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistanse area 1.16296.
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➡️Colleagues, the rather complicated correction suggests that the upward movement is gradually slowing down and I think that we will see a rather confident move towards the 1.16296 area.
The difficulty is that on higher timeframes we are dealing with a ending diagonal, and these are quite complicated figures to analyze.
Nevertheless, I think that there is a probability of reaching the support area of 1.14647 before the upward movement.

📣Fundamental context
The U.S. dollar is under pressure: weak economic data and expectations of monetary easing are reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. The euro is receiving moderate support amid relative stability in the eurozone economy and investor interest in non-dollar assets. These conditions set the stage for a resumption of the EUR/USD pair’s upward move.