FX Trading Dec 03-07

[trendie]

last month of the year. about 3 full weeks of trading before the Christmas festivities.

how was your November? mine was pretty mediocre. I wonder this is because I am getting used to trading, and there are fewer surprises to experience as the months go by.

personally, I am winding down for the year, and taking stock of the past year.

 

[shadowninja]

Well, I was just starting to develop a style that works whether the market is going up, down or sideways. When I first joined T2W, my style could only deal with a bullish market and a sideways market was proving to be a pain. 2008 is looking very promising.

 

[shadowninja]

EUR/USD: Was there a spike, just before 10pm?

 

[shadowninja]

It's annoying that it's recorded on IG/Prorealtime. Jumps from 14650 to 15150. Ruining the view as it is making everything smaller.

 

[2be]

last month of the year. about 3 full weeks of trading before the Christmas festivities.

how was your November? mine was pretty mediocre. I wonder this is because I am getting used to trading, and there are fewer surprises to experience as the months go by.

personally, I am winding down for the year, and taking stock of the past year.

Whether the next 2/3 weeks shall provide good moves IMHO to a great degree depends on Asian, especially Japaneese traders and their capital involved in the carry trade. If the Yen continue to strenghten below 107 in relation to the USD then the good feeling of Christmas on the Wall St would be somehow undermined, as the DOW and the other indexes would loose. I think this scenario is more likely to be in the first qt of 2008, and if so there is still enough optimism for the carry trade to give us jet another spike on the DOW. Whatever the media will say, the simple matter of money supply shall always govern the markets, and as long as the Asian traders are ready to found the carry trade, the DOW shall go north. One shall be carefull, for this flow of capital not only might, but certainly will be reversed, and we will call it correction. The question is:When??? Possibly not before the end of this year. If so the Yen shall weaken, the USD might continue its relative value, cable rangebound and so the Eur/USD.

 

[trendie]

GBPUSD seems to have halted its upswing, and seems to be going sideways.
is is ready to drop for 100 pips?

 

[smbtnt]

GBPUSD seems to have halted its upswing, and seems to be going sideways.
is is ready to drop for 100 pips?

Might well be 100 pips but my bias would now be up as we have taken out previous intraday highs. It could be coiling for a rally but the retracements might be fib deep.
Interesting session today.

 

[graemenash]

Long GBPUSD 2.0637 offered, stop 2.0620 bid. Will the curse of Mondays strike again? :|

EDITS
-------
1342 price breaks start point of retracement; stop to b/e
1344 exit b/e

 

[shadowninja]

Interestingly, IG's spot GBP/USD price is 20637.4-20640.4 and their Forward Mar-08 price is 20560-20572. That suggests something, right?

 

[trendie]

Might well be 100 pips but my bias would now be up as we have taken out previous intraday highs. It could be coiling for a rally but the retracements might be fib deep.
Interesting session today.

there was a pretty pattern, showing price congesting in a narrow range after the up-move, so I thought a break-out approach was in order. (2.0655 / 20)
it hasnt done a great deal, and the US session is coming soon, so I am no longer convinced.
also, ISM news (red=important) on the horizon, 3-pm, so will knock it on the head for today.

 

[shadowninja]

Well, that news rocked the market. Wasn't a poke at you, trendie. I was just expecting something more interesting to happen. Disappointed it didn't... I stayed out in case it messed up a trade but I might as well have carried on. And my teeth feel crap because instead of trading, I chomped sweets. :cheesy:

In response to this afternoon's news, a top analyst at Citybonk said:

 

[bbmac]

Nice action in cable today, a smart recovery off 0527lows taking out the last 30/1hr minor lower swing high of downtrend, finding resistance initially at 0639, finding support at 0612 for a further upside break, that area being a higher swing hi-higher swing lo and forming the RBS area (white lines.) price then finds resistance at 0654 (X) area retracing back inside that now 5/15min RBS zone finding support at the 23.6% fib of the move, and a 2nd test of it (point B) allowing a higher high at point A before a further retrace back into what is now a 5/15min congestion channel (red lines) the RBS area being 0654-0621, again finding support at the 23.6% of the total move at point C, points B and C being classic higher lows that followed higher highs in the uptrend.

My point really is that these RBS zone when coexistant with the 'next time' frame and these congestion zones when similar can act as good RBS/SBR.

Hope you had a good day

 

[bbmac]

The 1hr chart shows the minor congestion area that cable found resistance in before the further upside break, arguable not clear of the 'whole' 1hr congestion yet. See screencap.

 

[bbmac]

Cable breaks out the asian 0655-0527 range to the upside before a further downside break, retracing off minor support at 0600 to find resistance now (SBR) at bottom of asian range, which was the U.s session lo yesterday also.

Finding support at 0590 now.

15min screenshot shows it well;

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot shows the 1min trigger regular see-saw divergence set-up at a higher low around that 0590 support in cable today. (see-saw divergence explained here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/27050-re-entering-trend-2.html )

 

[shadowninja]

Any of you lot riding this juicy spike? Well done, if you jumped on it. I spotted it but didn't have the balls to click the "go" button. 50+ pips.

ETA: more like 70 pips. Ho hum!

 

[bbmac]

look where it found support, in that hourly congestion from yesterday now turned support (RBS)

 

[bbmac]

Had a nice 5min confirming set-up for a reversal without the small retest that gave rise to the 1min see-saw divergence set-up. Ie the 5min (trader_dante) pin bar at the bottom was retested.

5min Reversal type B.

 

[bbmac]

1hr inverted H&S (cup and saucer thingy??) not good on patterns, lol

 

[phaeton]

look where it found support, in that hourly congestion from yesterday now turned support (RBS)

and ~61.8% of the yesterday up move