Re: Long or Short ?
Neil, for the short term, it may be a play (although I think that play is almost over, but who knows), but for the longer term (day - week - month), it is still early to talk about play south, and it is dangerous to play against such an agressive and strong trend. But if you are intraday trader, it could be an option - but towards the trend line; or on a break...
neil said:€$ confuses me at the moment. The daily chart looks long yet lower time scales all seem to point towards a short. I am on side lines at the moment albeit I feel I should be short.
Maybe I have a frozen trigger finger for the moment
Neil, for the short term, it may be a play (although I think that play is almost over, but who knows), but for the longer term (day - week - month), it is still early to talk about play south, and it is dangerous to play against such an agressive and strong trend. But if you are intraday trader, it could be an option - but towards the trend line; or on a break...
Good Morning,
Open position:
short USDCHF@ 1.2765, stop ar entry level,
target: 1.2320
Target is over 400 pips, but the thing is that we have lots of breaks on Swissy which should accelerate the move further. I talked about it in the week opening. There were at least 2 major line breaks on swissy, and 1.23 is seen only as initial target for this trade. For the future there are good chances to see even lower.
Open position:
short USDCHF@ 1.2765, stop ar entry level,
target: 1.2320
Target is over 400 pips, but the thing is that we have lots of breaks on Swissy which should accelerate the move further. I talked about it in the week opening. There were at least 2 major line breaks on swissy, and 1.23 is seen only as initial target for this trade. For the future there are good chances to see even lower.
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Very nice evidence of sentiment for USD weakness to be still present on market. Those who followed the last hour of the market should know what I mean. But still its early to talk about anything certain yet. Lets see if we get to see new highs today; or will it be next week? New highs are needed to strengthen the technical picture which looks overbought at the moment (euro).
Anyways, look at the image - for now the trend line is the guardian of bulls (btw bulls are the ones protecting it - so it works both ways ). As long as it holds, north is the play. Afterwards...well, we talk about it once/if it happens. For now we are selling the greenback.
Anyways, look at the image - for now the trend line is the guardian of bulls (btw bulls are the ones protecting it - so it works both ways
). As long as it holds, north is the play. Afterwards...well, we talk about it once/if it happens. For now we are selling the greenback.Attachments
Well, as I said in the first post of this month, sentiment is rarely that strong and obvious, and I wished we all to try to profit from it. Hope most of you did
Anyways, for now it all looks very good, and despite the overbought market, extreamly bearish USD sentiment is pushing Dollar down; simple enough. This is one of those examples when overbought/sold situation can last for long long time. Just look at Aussie, and you'll understand that when sentiment/trend is strong enough, trend just goes on. As I showed on the image earlier, for now, the trend channel is a good indication on how to act for now, and it is keeping the move in place.
I am finished for this week,
See you all next week, same time, same place
Have a nice weekend Everyone,
Kind Regards,
Rezo Shmertz
Anyways, for now it all looks very good, and despite the overbought market, extreamly bearish USD sentiment is pushing Dollar down; simple enough. This is one of those examples when overbought/sold situation can last for long long time. Just look at Aussie, and you'll understand that when sentiment/trend is strong enough, trend just goes on. As I showed on the image earlier, for now, the trend channel is a good indication on how to act for now, and it is keeping the move in place.
I am finished for this week,
See you all next week, same time, same place
Have a nice weekend Everyone,
Kind Regards,
Rezo Shmertz
Forgot to mention:
for those who are holding the short USDCHF, I suggest moving the stop to slightly above day highs not to endanger the bigger target and be taken out on sudden spikes - I moved to 1.2720 to lock some little profits for now. That is what I did, you see for yourselves
cheers
for those who are holding the short USDCHF, I suggest moving the stop to slightly above day highs not to endanger the bigger target and be taken out on sudden spikes - I moved to 1.2720 to lock some little profits for now. That is what I did, you see for yourselves
cheers
Good Morning Everyone,
Well, Saddam was captured, USD rallies, but as we see - sentiment is still bullish and serious participants only used the opportunity to short even more USD - maybe for fast profits, and maybe not - we will see that. My positions were closed.
For now this is slightly mixed picture if we look at a technical side; the trend line which was supporting the up trend was penetrated due to this gap, but price was almost instantly returned back above that line (see charts posted earlier). We can see only buying right after the opening lower occurred. 80 pips rally in Asian session despite the gap is a god indication for which way the market is looking, and it is looking north (euro).
But as I said, technical picture was messed up by this situation, and therefore, I am not ruling out possibility for temporary consolidation - maybe even correction (but who knows - as I said, sentiment is still bearish on USD). For now, if we break the trend line once again (if we break 1.2175), it may and in my opinion will trigger a test of 1.2080, maybe even the 1.1950 - level that many are looking as possible good level to reestablish euro longs - this is a good level, and should for now provide the first serious support.
I am going to keep an eye on what happens next in order to decide next steps. It is too early to start buying the USD for me, but its also mixed enough not to short it. For now I am sidelined, and will decide later on.
Anyways, have a good day and week
Rezo
Well, Saddam was captured, USD rallies, but as we see - sentiment is still bullish and serious participants only used the opportunity to short even more USD - maybe for fast profits, and maybe not - we will see that. My positions were closed.
For now this is slightly mixed picture if we look at a technical side; the trend line which was supporting the up trend was penetrated due to this gap, but price was almost instantly returned back above that line (see charts posted earlier). We can see only buying right after the opening lower occurred. 80 pips rally in Asian session despite the gap is a god indication for which way the market is looking, and it is looking north (euro).
But as I said, technical picture was messed up by this situation, and therefore, I am not ruling out possibility for temporary consolidation - maybe even correction (but who knows - as I said, sentiment is still bearish on USD). For now, if we break the trend line once again (if we break 1.2175), it may and in my opinion will trigger a test of 1.2080, maybe even the 1.1950 - level that many are looking as possible good level to reestablish euro longs - this is a good level, and should for now provide the first serious support.
I am going to keep an eye on what happens next in order to decide next steps. It is too early to start buying the USD for me, but its also mixed enough not to short it. For now I am sidelined, and will decide later on.
Anyways, have a good day and week
Rezo
Hello Everyone,
Pretty quiet week for me. No trades till now, but seems like we are seeing possibility for a correction today. The question is whether this time we penetrate the trend line or not. I should remind you and to myself, that any line is to be broken eventually, and it is only matter of when will it happen.
The theory of "trend is your friend" means nothing more than:
if sentiment was "__a__" (bullish/bearish), then more chances that it will stay "__a__", rather than change. Something radical should happen suddenly or slowly over the time in order to change the sentiment = market mood = trend.
Reaction on Saddam capture is the best example. Sentiment was truly bearish on USD, and even such a positive news as capture of Saddam cannot beat the market sentiment, i.e. the trend. Even if the saddening following explosions wouldn't happen to boost the renewed seloff of the USD, it would still happen - USD would continue to fall. It would be only question of time once again.
Ok, less of theoretical monologues - lets get to what we are all more interested in: which way, when and why?!
Well, lets take a look at the chart I post - nothing much - only the trend line which I am posting for several weeks now, and it was a good line to follow - that was the only thing needed to trade since we got 2 bottoms which are needed to draw a trend line.
So will the line hold once again or will it be broken? I don't know. do you?
But it is still a very good chance to take a long position. I have put a buy order at 1.2250 with a 30 pip stop, targeting the 1.25 level. I may also cancel the order and enter on market price. We'll see about that. I will keep you updated the minute I do. For now order is in place.
Good luck everybody!
Rezo
Pretty quiet week for me. No trades till now, but seems like we are seeing possibility for a correction today. The question is whether this time we penetrate the trend line or not. I should remind you and to myself, that any line is to be broken eventually, and it is only matter of when will it happen.
The theory of "trend is your friend" means nothing more than:
if sentiment was "__a__" (bullish/bearish), then more chances that it will stay "__a__", rather than change. Something radical should happen suddenly or slowly over the time in order to change the sentiment = market mood = trend.
Reaction on Saddam capture is the best example. Sentiment was truly bearish on USD, and even such a positive news as capture of Saddam cannot beat the market sentiment, i.e. the trend. Even if the saddening following explosions wouldn't happen to boost the renewed seloff of the USD, it would still happen - USD would continue to fall. It would be only question of time once again.
Ok, less of theoretical monologues - lets get to what we are all more interested in: which way, when and why?!
Well, lets take a look at the chart I post - nothing much - only the trend line which I am posting for several weeks now, and it was a good line to follow - that was the only thing needed to trade since we got 2 bottoms which are needed to draw a trend line.
So will the line hold once again or will it be broken? I don't know. do you?
But it is still a very good chance to take a long position. I have put a buy order at 1.2250 with a 30 pip stop, targeting the 1.25 level. I may also cancel the order and enter on market price. We'll see about that. I will keep you updated the minute I do. For now order is in place.
Good luck everybody!
Rezo
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Ok, we have a Hanukkah holiday coming here in Israel, and when it is over, New Year period is coming soon, so I am announcing about closing of the current "trading" year.
I would like to wish you all Happy Hanukkah, Marry Cristmass and a Happy New Year!
It was a pseasure to communicate with you and see you all next year
Once again, happy and pleasant holiday season,
have some good time - we live only once in this life as far as I know
Sincerely Yours,
Rezo Shmertz.
I would like to wish you all Happy Hanukkah, Marry Cristmass and a Happy New Year!
It was a pseasure to communicate with you and see you all next year
Once again, happy and pleasant holiday season,
have some good time - we live only once in this life as far as I know
Sincerely Yours,
Rezo Shmertz.
