Monthly Thread: August 2004

[rezo_s]

Hello Everyone!

Hope you are all doing great.

I am currently concentrating on EURJPY, and waiting for a break.
We are in a triangle. This is a weekly triangle, and once we break that formation, good position may be taken. At this point it is trying to break upside, and I will be waiting to see a break before entering. First small position may be taken after a break of 136.30/40.

The 135.80, which is last month high, was tested yesterday and is being tested today. We saw some selling coming form 135.80 area. Once we break this level, we should test the above mentioned 136.30/40.
Then, as a confirmation and a final break we have to go above 137.30/50 area and overcome the 138, which should trigger a start of a whole new trend. If this happens, we may talk about a new tendency, potentially (technically) targeting 140 and 150.
But a bit early to talk about it, so lets first wait for a break of 136.30/40, taking small longs there with stop below 136.00, targeting 137.00, and in case we break 137.30/50, enter new longs with target of 140.

best luck!

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

ok, right now we are trading at 136.35/40. Lets wait for current hour close and I will consider buying.
Dont buy large amount, because we are still in dangerous area.

If hour close will be above 136.55/60, then its too far for entering already. Otherwise, I will consider entering.

I will post on this hour close.

Good Luck!

 

[rezo_s]

ok, hour close was slightly above 136.40

Bought at 136.45 with stop at 135.85 with small leverage of X1.15.

 

[rezo_s]

Moving to entry point at 136.75;

Cover half at 136.95

GL & GT

 

[rezo_s]

Morning everyone.

Covered EURJPY long a moment ago at 136.07

It lloks like unable to hold on levels above 136.30/40, and now may head lower before possible retest to break upside.

Good Luck Everyone!

 

[rezo_s]

Eurusd

Hello Everyone,

Hope you are all having a wonderful weekend.

Comments for the coming week:

EURUSD:

On Friday we got a very strong closing, but first lets zoom out and take a look at a weekly chart:

 

[rezo_s]

EURUSD:

One may say that things don't look so surprising after a bullish closing a week ago. But its not all so nice once we take a closer look on daily action...

On Friday 2 weeks ago (July 30), we closed around 1.2020, which was below the weekly line. This line seems important after market being able to hold it in period from April-June and finally bouncing from it all the way to 1.2460 in July.
Therefore, when we closed a week below this supportive line on July the 30th, it was quiet a bearish signal. The following week we were in flat market until Friday with the payroll numbers which drove the Euro from 1.2050 all the way to 1.2280 instantly.

Same scenario repeated itself for this week – almost no action until the Friday US data which drove the Euro all the way to 1.2380 areas.

Is this an interesting market and easy to trade? I don't think so. Not unless you know what the US numbers will be.

The question is: will this 2 week consequent weak US data and USD weakness finally set the direction? I say there are very good chances that it may.

Here is a daily chart where you can see the Fridays->flat week->US data Friday->

 

[rezo_s]

EURUSD: My strategy

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My strategy for the coming week (or at least for tomorrow) is simple – I will try to buy EURUSD in1.2270-1.2300 area if I get to, targeting 1.2450 for this week, and if we overcome this recent high, then we can look forward for 1.2700 as the next target area. I may take long position even slightly above 1.23, and in that case I will post about it.
=============================================

 

[rezo_s]

Eurjpy

EURJPY:

As for other currency pairs, of course USDCHF as an upside-down twin of the Euro is an alternative to trade, and I will be using it as a hedge instrument in times of news announcements. This is something new I will be using now. For now I will be testing it before applying, and therefore I will post it all here.

Nothing complicated – trading as usual, but if trade is open when we expect for news to come out, I will be hedging the position with the correlating pair. If there is no news expected – no hedging will be applied.

Ok, back to other pairs I am focusing on – not much. I am only looking at EURJPY except for EURUSD and nothing else. All the rest still look too mixed for me to trade. I tried to trade EURJPY last week, and posted here about it. So now, let’s take a look at it again after last week close.

EURJPY: The triangle on weekly chart looks broken and now we can expect for further strength of this pair.

Weekly close of this pair is indicating that we are breaking out of this formation to target levels well above 140 in the future. Of course for the final confirmation we need to go above 138.00, but in my opinion it is only a final stage. Bullish sentiment is obviously becoming stronger and I will be looking to buy this pair.

 

[rezo_s]

EURJPY:
================================================
My strategy for this pair is to try buying, targeting 137.70/80 this week, and if we break higher, then 140. Levels at which I will be buying are not defined yet, but I think it may be somewhere around 136.00 area. I will keep you updated on this pair.
================================================

Good trading week you all and Good Luck!

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

Good Day Everyone.

Updates on the above mentioned topics: EUR/$ and EUR/Y:

EURUSD: Nothing much happening for now. Euro trading in 1.2335-1.2385. Lets wait for move towards 1.2270-1.2300 or at least close to 1.23.

EURJPY: traded near its highs and even retested levels above 137.00, but is now retracing a bit. Trading around 136.65. Waiting for further weakness towards 136.20/30 - the 240 min trend line. If I decide taking long position from there, stop will be below the day line. i.e. below 136.10.
I will update.

Good Trades!

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

Here is a daily chart if you want to see where the line in the previous post came from. You can also observe it on weekly chart I posted yesterday. BTW, its already trading at 136.55 - just made a new day low of 136.48. Euro is also making small steps down.

GL!

 

[rezo_s]

ok, little update on EURJPY:

its trading right now at 136.30/5. Almost reached the level I was talking in the previous post.
Lets see how it handles this point and make some decisions later today or early tomorrow.

 

[rezo_s]

Lets wait. No hurry here. I think more consolidation should follow.

136.20/30 shoyld provide some support. Will update.

 

[rezo_s]

Hi all!

follow up on EURUSD and EURJPY:

E/$ - still waiting for some retrace towards 1.23 levels (or slightly above there)

E/Y: more interesting. Yesterday we were to 136.20/30, and even touched 136.10. Now we are trading at 136.40, and I am considering a buy on next dive towards 136.20/30.

I will use a stop at 135.80 with leverage ~X2. Will be risking about 1% or less.

 

[rezo_s]

Will be taking half of the position and moving stop to entry point at 136.70. First target afterwards will be 138.00.

Good Luck!

 

[rezo_s]

Bought EURJPY at 136.30

 

[rezo_s]

ok, here we are before the CPI numbers.

EURJPY is trading around 136.40.

I will not be covering the position, because now we are expecting for US news, and this pair will not be directly influenced by it. (there is no direct US dollar position).
However, I moved the stop to 136.95. Slightly below 136.00/05, because if we go down there, I think it may mean we broke down and it may trigger further weakness before possible upside move. Stop is there to avoid being stopped on false spike.

 

[rezo_s]

the chart

 

[rezo_s]

got stopped at 135.95. Hour closed below the supp line. This may trigger further weakenss. lost about 0.7% on this trade.

Some action on those numbers. not so good one for me though

Better luck to me next time...