Charmer Charts Bund, Bobl & Gilts technical anlaysis forecast

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds remained in a narrow range yesterday, although the small upward moves saw the
market unwind the severe oversold conditions evident on the 60 min charts. This morning the chart pattern looks quite bullish and we should see this come higher if we can hold the 131.95/91 support.
Buyers should be in at these lower levels and they should only reverse position if we make a break below 131.86. If this occurs look for 131.76/73.
Now if we hold support we should be able to trade higher with 132.37/40 once more targeted. If we can break the 132.40 barrier buyers would be expected to come back into the market looking for a rally towards 132.60 then 132.73.

Bobl held support and came higher to target area of 122.24, seeing long positions covered. Today we still have the 122.28 resistance to negotiate and of we can break this region then we can go forward to 122.41 initially.
Here we look to cover all longs once more. Sellers are likely to be waiting on these highs
and it is up to the buyers to try and bust through this point, keeping the pressure then to the topside for 122.51/55.
Support is at the 121.85/82 region. A loss of this support still sees the market lower with 121.65/62 as your first target with a break signalling 121.53.

Gilts will need to regain ground above 123.86 for a run up to 124.15/17. The market
should pause here but there is scope for gains to 124.40/42 today. Watch for profit taking here as sellers attempt shorts at this stage today. Only a break above 124.50 activates stops on shorts as we head for the next target for the day at 124.66/70. Don’t expect much more on the upside for today.
Failure at 123.86 could lead to prices drifting back towards 123.59/52 and perhaps another test of Friday’s lows at 123.37 but this should meet with keen buyers once again today. They will wish to add to longs down to 123.25 but below 123.20 activates
stops as this signals further losses with 122.71/68 the next target.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds bounced yesterday as expected and the Dec contract came back to the 50% short term fib located at 131.76. We have closed towards the highs of the day, and therefore this morning if we can make a break above 131.76 we should look for further strength with 132.22 then targeted.
Here buyers would once more look to cover...they will only come back into the market if we can make a break above here. A break above 132.22 leaves 1232.37/40 then targeted.
However if we cannot make a break above 131.76 we are liable to pullbacks with 131.40 the targeted area. On dips to these lower levels we should be able to see buyers come forth. However once more they will not hold below 131/40 as a break below here sees 131.06 to 131.00.

Bobl came higher off 120.69 reaching 121.32. We are slightly overextended on the topside in the short term, so we may well see a small retracement early in the session to unwind this scenario.
121.11/08 offers support and if we cannot hold above this region we should look for the sellers to take us lower once more with 120.90 to 120.84 then looking to be the likely target.
Buyers are expected to come in at these lower levels and we would expect this support to hold.

Resistance is at 121.32/36. If we climb above this point then we are looking at the buyers taking us higher for 121.62/65 where we would expect the rally to peter out.

Gilts reached our target of 124.66/70 which capped as predicted.
We will need to beat resistance here at 124.70/74 today for a continued recovery to 125.02/04. If we manage to break through this resistance area then look for bulls to chase 125.24/30 as the next target.
However if we hold below 124.40 then bears will grow in confidence as they pressure for 124.19/15. Below 124.00 there is a small gap to fill down to 123.83 and this will be quite important today. Failure at 123.83 could lead to prices drifting back towards 123.59/52 and perhaps another test of Friday’s lows at 123.37. Buyers may try attempting longs here adding down 123.25 but below 123.20 activates stops as this signals further losses with 122.71/68 the next target.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds posted another day of weakness and came down to target area of 129.97. We have seen very little correction on the close and this does leave the buyers stranded a bit for this session.

However, some good news is that we are oversold obviously and therefore if we can hold the 129.99/97 support we can correct a little further on the topside with another go at 130.34/37
looking likely. If sellers cannot hold the buyers at bay here we should look for the market to trade higher past 130.45 for 130.55/59 which should be enough.

Now if we cannot hold above 129.95 we are looking at the market coming lower for
129.36/30 then 129.21 quite quickly.

Schatz held upside resistance of 109.37 and then we tumbled to 109.23. Support is at these lower
levels of 109.215/109.18 and it is unlikely that we can break and hold below here under current
market conditions.

If we fail to break lower look for a move back towards good resistance located at 109.37/39 once
more. Sellers should be waiting here and should hold the market at these higher levels.

After correction we should see the market come lower and then we could break 109.18. If this
occurs look for 109.13/125 initially.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds came down early in the session and broke 129.97 reaching 129.53. Overbought conditions kicked in and buyers came forth buying it back to 130.21 thus making us look overbought for the start of today's session.

So we have resistance at yesterdays highs. If this level cannot be broken early in the session we should look for the market to come lower with another crack at 129.50/48 looking likely. Here possibly buyers will enter, but we still have the 129.21/17 target in the back of the sellers minds.

However above 130.21 leaves the buyers with a good chance of 130.34/37 to 130.45 before downward pressure resumes.

Bobl based at 120.08. Good recovery off these lower levels but we haven't closed above 120.38 which is our first s/t fib level. Also as we have failed to close above this level, sellers are going to be poised to make a rush on the downside. 120.12/08 remains target. Sellers are advised to cover to here. Re-sell a
loss of 12008 for 11994/92 to 11982.
Back above 12043 sees 120.60/64, but this should be the top.

Gilts fell as far as 121.93 before climbing as the market become over sold.
We now have to beat tough resistance at 122.75/78 to allow a test of tough resistance
at 123.00/01. Watch for some profit taking here as sellers attempt shorts they
will need to keep stops tight as if we make it through this obstacle we could run up
to 123.26/31. This could mark the high of the day as only above 123.36 can then
allow further gains with 123.67/71 the next target.
Failure at 122.78 keeps pressure to the downside for a test of 122.45/43. We could
see some buying here, bearing mind the severe over sold position. However a break
lower keeps sellers in control to 122.20/16 with a test of yesterday’s lows at 121.93
below. If this level does not hold today then look for 121.78/76 as the new target.
Only below 121.63 sees further losses to 121.41/38 today.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds finally did the correction that was expected and we then came higher for 130.79.
Small downward correction on the close, but if we can hold above 130.45 we should once
more be able to trade higher for 130.83 then 130.90/92.

Buyers would be advised to cover to here and await either a break of 130.95 or buy into dips
back to 130.55/45. Now if we cannot hold the 130.45 support we are looking at the market coming back lower with 129.99/987 then targeted.

Bobl bounced well yesterday and this went some way to ease short term oversold indictors.
We are looking for this to trade higher early in the session and if we can clear 120.64 we should be able to maintain strength and come higher for 120.84/89.

Here buyers are advised to take profits. They should re-instate longs above the s.t 50%
level at 120.96 as this would also give the contract a boost leaving 121.36 then targeted.

We have support at 120.43 to 120.36 and only if we lose this support would we see the market start to come lower once more.

Schatz is still dangerously oversold on the med term charts, and thisd signals that we are near a
base. If we can hold the 109.23/215 support over the next few sessions then we should see the market begin to turn to move higher....All indicators are primed for this.

The break point on the topside will be 109.42. Once we can clear this resistance we should be
able to make further gains to 109.53 then 109.58.

UK Gilts beat tough resistance at 123.00/0 and then broke above 123.36 as we topped at 123.44.
We are a little over bought on the 60 minute charts so a correction is possible but should provide a buying opportunity for a rally later in the week. 123.08/01 is your first support and below here should see 122.86/84 trade. However below 122.80
keeps corrective pressure for a test of 122.68/60. This should be an excellent chance to establish longs here with stops placed below 122.50 as this leads to further losses.
If we can hold on to 123.00 then bulls will push on for a test of 123.31/35 resistance before yesterday’s highs at 123.44. If we can push through here look for 123.67/71 as the next target. Sellers will wish to attempt shorts here with stops above 123.77. Above 123.83, buyers will be jumping in for a push towards 124.15.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds came lower, but you can see from the above chart that we held the uptrend line and although we have closed lower uncles we lose 129.80 there is scope today for this to move higher back towards the 129.99 resistance and beyond.

If we can clear 129.99 we should look for the market to come higher with 130.55/56 once more targeted. Failure to hold over 129.80 sees the long term uptrend broken, and sellers would take this a sign of weakness with 129.50/48 then 129.36/30 the objective.

Bobl failed to make any headway on the topside yesterday and held 120.48 and came sharply lower. Now we do have support from previous lows located at 120.08 and given the severe oversold conditions on both 60 min and med term charts we expect this support to hold. We should get a bounced back to 120.46/48 where sellers are waiting once more. Sellers are looking to hold unless we break above 120.56.

Now as stated support is lower at 120.12/08. If we do lose this support and hold below here then we are looking at the market coming lower for 119.82 to 119.73 quite quickly.

Schatz came lower to 109.18, but still the market remains dangerously oversold. I think that we need to see the oversold indicators turn however as although a base is in sight, we just trade down.

10918 offers support. If we lose this level then we should see the market trade lower for 109.13 to 109.11.Buyers are expected here and we should hold longs unless below 109.11. So we have closed at session lows. If we can hold 10918 on the open then we have scope for a correction back towards 109.29. Above here and buyers will be back in the market once more for 109.25 then 109.35.

Gilts headed lower a s expected to reach the target of 122.68/60. This was expected to be an excellent chance to establish longs here and indeed the low of the day was seen at 122.63 before we bounced to 123.06.

We may see a dip back to support at 122.68/60 again today for a buying opportunity and buyers may wish to add to longs down to 122.50 with tight stops below 122.45. This should keep sellers in control for 122.16 before the lows of 121.93 which could hold again today.

If we can regain 123.00 then bulls will push on for a test of 123.31/35 resistance before this week’s high so far at 123.44. If we can push through here look for 123.67/71 as the next target. Sellers will wish to attempt shorts here with stops above 123.77. Above 123.83, buyers will be jumping in for a push towards 124.15.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Gilts headed lower to our level of 122.16, over running just a fraction to 122.14 before a bounce.
If we dip below 122.16/14 today we should see a test of the recent lows at 121.93 which could hold again today. The market is oversold on both daily and hourly stochastics and a double bottom would give a green light to bulls to push the market higher. However a break lower should target 122.71 before the 122.55/45 area as the next stop. Below here sees excellent support at 121.12 for a buying opportunity.

If we can regain 122.45 then bulls will push on for a test of 122.63. Bulls could struggle here but a break higher is always possible and this would allow a break of the downtrend from early Sept. Next stop is 122.79/80 for profit taking on longs and an attempt at short positions. Stops needed on a break above 122.84 however which signals a test of 122.94/00. This should mark the high for today if we get this far.

Bunds slammed through the uptrend line and came sharply lower to 129.22. This is the med term 75% fib level and as such would look for this to support the market at least in the short term.

We could well go back to the uptrend break point of 130.02 and here is where we would expect sellers once more to come back into the market. If we do not retrace early in the session and lose 129.17 we should expect further losses for 128.76/77 through to 128.67/66.

Bobl came lower just holding above 119.73 target. We have shown very little strength here on the close....but we again are desperately oversold.

119.73 is the key today. If we can hold this support we have a chance of trading higher to ease these oversold conditions. The daily pivot is located at 119.95. If we can break above here we can see this come higher for 120.45.

Sellers are likely to be waiting here and they should not give way to this resistance easily. Now if we break below 119.73 then we are looking at this market coming lower for 119.59/52.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds exceeded our objective of 129.21 reaching 129.08. Now we see buyers came back into the market at these lows and we then saw the market move to 130.21 before edging slightly lower on the close.

Now as we have bounced quite significantly off these lows and we are still at dangerously oversold levels on the med term charts....we should continue to move higher at the beginning of the week. Now if we can break and hold back above 86 then we would be able to jump to 130.21/34. Buyers initially advised to cover here. Look to re-instate above 130.34 as this back above the trendline and also the med term 38% fib level and as such fresh buyers would feel a little more confident in coming back in, looking then for quite a rally.

Now if we falter at 129.86 we are looking at 129.08 to 128.95 then targeted.

Bobl just dipped below the 119.73 region for 119.70 then we came screaming higher for 120.25 before closing up a tad higher.

Now even though we have traded higher we are still showing oversold on the daily charts
and this could mean that we continue to trade higher this session. 120.26/28 is the key today. If we can climb above this resistance early in the session we can trade higher with 120.48/56 then the targeted area. You may find the market coming under a bit of pressure here...but we would still look for strength until the overbought scenario unwinds.

Failure to break the 120.12 resistance leaves us looking a little bit softer with 119.82/75 then targeted. If we fail to hold 119.70 then we are looking to come lower.

Schatz held support and came sharply higher to 109.23 closing quite good as well. If today we can break the 109.23 resistance then we should look for further strength leading to 109.29 initially.

If we can hold below here there is scope for the market to come back a little lower for 109.18. Now if we can break and hold the 109.29 resistance we should be able to surpass 109.325 on our way to 109.35 and beyond.

Now if we cannot hold 109.18 we can come lower for 109.13/125 where once more buyers are expected to come back into the market.

Gilts tested 121.93 which held as predicted. As we wrote on Friday ‘‘The market is
oversold on both daily and hourly stochastics and a double bottom would give a
green light to bulls to push the market higher.’’ Indeed the market raced higher
from the lows to 122.80/84 resistance. We had recommended profit taking on longs
here and attempting shorts and the market plunged as expected from 122.83.

The market may need a pull back initially today as we build our base for gains later
in the week. Support seen at 122.39 and then 122.28 which could be today’s low.
Between here and 122.16 should see buyers establishing longs for the expected
move higher. Only a break below 121.90 would ruin the plans for a recovery in this
market.

A break lower should then target 121.71 before the 121.55/45 area as the next
stop. Below here sees excellent support at 121.15/12 for a buying opportunity.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Bunds did trade higher reaching 129.87. We have eased slightly on the close, but still retain a position of strength. Now if we can break and hold back above 129.87 then we would be able to jump to 130.21/34. Buyers initially advised to cover here.

Look to re-instate above 130.34 as this back above the trend line and also the med term 38% fib level and as such fresh buyers would feel a little more confident in coming back in, looking then for quite a rally.

Now if we falter at 129.86/87 we are looking at 129.08 to 128.95 then targeted. Buyers are expected back at these lower levels.

Bobl had a narrow range, but the overall view remains unchanged. So we are still buying
dips unless we lose 119.70.

Schatz just couldn't hang onto gains and failed to make any headway on the topside. If then we lose 109.11 we should trade lower to the 109.07/05 support.

Buyers are expected in at these lower levels adding to 109.035. Again you should keep stops below 10902. A loss of 10902 sees further weakness down to 108.975 where we would be looking to go long once more.

109.11 holding sees another move to 109.18. If we can break this resistance look for 109.23. 120.26/28 is the key today. If we can climb above this resistance early in the session we can trade higher with 120.48/56 then the targeted area. You may find the market coming under a bit of pressure here...but we would still look for strength until the overbought scenario unwinds.

Failure to break the 120.12 resistance leaves us looking a little bit softer with 119.82/75 then targeted. If we fail to hold 119.70 then we are looking to come lower.

Gilts failed to break above 122.62 for the rally to commence and fell back to
122.07/03 support.
If we can hold on to this level today then buyers may at last see the recovery we have been looking for in the last day or two. We will need to see prices back above 22.55 initially to break the very recent downtrend. From here we can challenge 22.71 before 122.84/87 which could be tough to beat today. A break higher however, would then open the door to 123.12 for some profit taking.

Only a break below 121.90 would now ruin the plans for a recovery in this market. A
break lower should then target 121.71 before the 121.55/45 area as the next stop. Below here sees excellent support at 121.15/12 for a buying opportunity.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Today's Charmer Charts forecast for German Bund, Bobl Schatz and UK Gilts (Available at 7am).

Bund Dec Contract - Bunds exceeded our upward target of 131.59, trading to 131.67 before falling sharply lower. Now the close has been a bit disconcerting and we shall have to see if we can hold the 50% short term fib level of 130.58 coupled with support at 130.55. If we fail to maintain over here then we are looking at coming lower for 130.34/25, but this should be the base and we should be able to trade higher from these lows. We gave resistance located at 131.06. If we can claw our way back to here buyers would be looking to cover. They should then re-instate longs over 131.06 for 131.24 then 131.32/40.

German Bobl Dec Contract - Bobl has dipped back below trendline support on the close and also has made a double top formation on the 60min charts which leaves us looking slightly more weaker today with expected declines back to 120.45/42 initially.
If we fail to hold this support then we are looking at further weakness evident with
120.28/23 then looking likely. Buyers should come in here and try and defend the market
However they will not hold if we lose 120.20.
Now if after this lower close we hold up and try and break the 120.64 resistance we do have scope to trade higher with the highs of Friday looking to entice.

Schatz fulfilled our downside target of 10925 which we stated Friday. This is quite important to today's range as well. This level represents the 38% fib level and if we can hold this point we can trade higher from these lows.
Short term we are oversold and this should help support the market this session. So...as long as we hold 109.25 we are looking at trading higher once more. 10937 is going to prove to be a difficult area to break to would look to cover all longs to here and only re-instate further longs above 10939.
Now if we lose 10925 you will find sellers coming back into the market and we should be able to trade lower to 109.18/17. Sellers are advised to cover to here and buyers are expected unless we lose 10915.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract - Gilts gave us the correction we expected with the break below 123.59/58 taking prices to 123.31 to provide the buying opportunity we hoped for as we bottomed at 123.26. So 123.31 will be pivotal this morning. Below here targets 124.04. If this level cannot find sufficient buyers today then we look to close the gap down to 122.65. This should be all we see on the downside for today so expect brave buyers to be out looking for bargains at this stage in the hope of a bottom here
today.
Above 123.31 gives hope for a recovery to 123.59. This could be a tough hurdle but if we make it higher then 123.82 should follow and perhaps 124.00.

 

[CharmerCharts]

Today's Charmer Charts.com forecast (available from 6am)

German Bund Dec Contract
Bunds opened higher and this set the tone for the rest of the session. Gains were posted to 131.88 and we have managed to close higher. Still overbought on the 60min and daily charts, and if we lose 131.76 on the open we should trade lower.
Support comes in at 131.40/32. Buyers may well come back into the market at these lower levels. They should only reverse longs if we break the base of the gap at 131.28. If we lose this support look for 131.06/02 then 130.92.
However if we can clear 131.92 buyers are expected once more as we should then se the market trade higher for 132.20 which is expected to hold this session.

German Bobl Dec Contract
Bobl captured within a narrow range yesterday and just could not break the 120.84 barrier.
We tried most of the session and failed. Now this sideways action may well have been
enough to give the market some oomph today to be able to bust this resistance.
However, if we fail to break the break above here take this as a sign of weakness and watch the market come lower. A loss of 120.67 would push us lower for 120.51/48. Here we should look for buyers to come back into the market. They will only turn tail if we lose 120.45. If lose we should find 120.35 then targeted.
Now if we can make a break above 120.84 buyers would be in a better position to trade
higher looking for 120.99 initially. Cover to here and re-instate longs over 121.02.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract
Gilts topped out at 124.81, short of the 124.83/90 area in a quiet session which could keep the market under pressure today.
If we cannot hold above 124.40/37 then a dip below 124.20 should see 124.03. Below here we find support down to 123.86/82 today and so short covering advisable here as buyers may attempt longs. However stops will be needed below 123.76 as this will keep downside pressure for a test of Friday’s lows at 123.49 next.
Bulls will need to hold prices back above 124.40 for a chance of recovery today. This should lead to 124.60 initially and if we make it higher from here look for recent highs at 124.83/91 resistance. From here up to the 61.8% retracement level of 125.02 should be tough to beat today. However a break higher should then target 125.29 and perhaps 125.50 for a selling opportunity.

 

[CharmerCharts]

CharmerCharts.com daily forecasts:

German Bund Dec Contract - Bunds stayed within quite a narrow range yesterday as to be expected. So today we are looking at the market rallying a bit towards the 131.86/89 resistance early in the session.

If we cannot make a break above here we should look for the market to come lower back towards the 131.40 support. A loss through here would see the market coming lower with 131.24 to 131.02 then looking to entice. So if we trade higher and manage to break through 131.89 we would expect buyers to continue to drive this higher with 131.99/132.03 then the targeted area. Buyers will encounter sellers at these higher levels and we should then look to cover all longs. Buyers will only go back into the market if we manage to break the 132.03 resistance for 132.22.

German Bobl Dec Contract - Bobl held resistance at 121.09 and unless we break 121.12 we will trade lower this session. 120.72/70 looks set to entice early in the session. Sellers would be advised to cover to here. They are looking to re-sell if we can break through the 120.70 region. If we can achieve this we can trade lower to 120.64/60.

If buyers hold above 120.89 they can take this higher. If we can break the 121.09/12 barrier we can trade higher to 121.20/24 where we would once more look to cover. Buyers will re-instate longs if we can break 121.24 for 121.32/36.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract - Gilts remain overbought so a correction may be on the cards for today.

Below 125.07/05 should see a test of 124.93/88 where we may see short covering and some buying interest. If the market fails here however look for 124.73/65 as the next target on the downside. Only below 124.57 see further losses to 124.43/36.

Above 125.38 gives us a target of 125.50/58 on the upside. This could be enough of a rally for today but if we were to break higher look for the roll over gap to be filled up to 125.86.

 

[sellit]

Today's reports attached.

 

[sellit]

Today's Charmer Charts Bund and Bobl attached.

 

[sellit]

Today's reports attached.

 

[sellit]

Gilts and Bobl report attached.

 

[sellit]

bund, bobl & gilts attached.

 

[sellit]

Today's reports attached!

 

[sellit]

Today's reports attached.

 

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