Monthly Thread: December, 03

[rezo_s]

Hello everyone,

I think we are going to see further USD weakness soon. I am holding 2 short positions on USD, and may add some more - maybe today. Sentiment is pretty obvious on the market, and that is not so often when we have a definate movement. We should all try to benefit from this situation. Entries are very important as always, so lets try to catch some good moved out there.
I will be addig most probably short on USDCHF (both for longer term position and 60 pip profit) and maybe long on EURO for 50 pips. I am holding long on Euro, so there will be only short term 50 pips trade on that one if at all.

I would like to say for all those interested, that performance page for November was updated both on Moneytec post and on the website; You are welcome to browse.

I will post once/if I enter any trade.

I want to wish for you all, this day, week, month and Year to be very profitable

Regards,

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

Little commentary on what happened.

Euro retraced as low as 1.1935, swissy as high as 1.3015, cable steady around 1.7200;

Currently euro = 1.1970, swissy @1.2980...

Retracement - not bad for a further move. Euro didnt hold above 1.20? Bad sign? I still think it is has potential to go much above 1.20, but of course time will show.
We have crossed 1.20 point up and down multiple times on friday and today, which shows that 1.20 is not a key level anymore. At least it is not a phsycological level - it lost most of its phsycological value after it is being crossed up and down so many times. But it is still a level, noone can argue with that.

I am still looking to long Swissy (sell USDCHF). Will post once/if I enter.
Here is a channel on EURO - 240 min is more important, but 60 min channel bottom was broken (red line), triggering the dive to 1.1935.

Good Luck!

 

[rezo_s]

sell USDCHF now @1.2965

 

[rezo_s]

half position will be for 60 pip target with 40 stop

another half is for longer term with:

[email protected]

[email protected]

 

[rezo_s]

Good Morning Everybody,

The short term swissy was stopped : -40 pips

May reenter later, will see.

 

[rezo_s]

Resell USDCHF @current 1.2992

same 60 pips target and 40 stop, moving stop to entry after +25 and lock 10 after 40 pip move in favor

 

[rezo_s]

Well, while I was saving an image to show you that line was broken which should trigger further move south on USDCHF, short term trade almost hit its target of 60 pips.
Still holding the longer term short @1.6965, moved stop to breakeven now on that one.

 

[rezo_s]

And here we go. Target hit, +60 pips.

Longer term trade also looks promising with euro hitting new highs. Anywyas, stop is at entry point now.

GL,

 

[rezo_s]

I was asked on other forum about euro now - after a break of 1.20, so I will post here as well in case someone is interested:

there are good indications this move to keep running, especially now, when we broke at a very critical moment.

We can see that trend angle 2) is bigger than it was on the previous one 1) - good sign for bulls;
And another point (3) ) - we broke upside, not quiet a well formed pattern, but it is still indication of a break, which it no doubt is. In case we hold the break and dont get back below that line which as we see is standing exactly at 1.20 !! area, I think it is a sign of further appriciation.

Good Trading Everybody,

Rezo

 

[GeckoTime]

Nice analysis, thanks

 

[rezo_s]

Good Day everyone,

Here are some expected levels and tradng range for euro

 

[rezo_s]

Here's the Swissy.

Break of the supp line (blue one ) resulted in move down. If we as well break the red line which is around 1.2850, then I think we may see the acceleration of the move down. Even though, it is potentialy a good support. Will see.

Good Trading,

 

[rezo_s]

reco: sell USDCHF now @1.2893

short term trade 60 pip target, 40 pip stop;

stop to entry after +25 and lock 10 pips after we move +40 pips

Good Luck

 

[rezo_s]

For those who wasn't quick enough and didn't move the stop to breakeven yet (like me), I suggest doing it now. (its now @1.2873, been as low as /62 after the entry).

Euro is struggling to break one if the minor lines (inside channel line). If we break it, test of 1.22 will probably follow; if not, we may retrace as low as 1.2000/40 support area - see the chart couple posts above for bigger picture. And here is a zoom on the line on 60 min charts:

 

[rezo_s]

Good Morning Everybody,

Closed the longer term trade as well on USDCHF.
For now no more oprn positions;

I this is still a very modest corrections compared to upside move we had. Will be looking further to sell USD if all looks ok.

Good Luck Everyone!

 

[rezo_s]

Hi Everyone little pre-opening comment:

EURUSD:
Another weekly close near week highs. Bullish momentum is still really strong. I don't think we are going to see anything but weak and temporary correction in the near term. Any good retracement should be used to enter long positions. Firm and confident trend line is supporting this move for now, and the first line to be broken is that very same line. If we break is, we may retrace for initial test of 1.20 which for now should be the strongest physiological barrier.

 

[rezo_s]

If we take a look at 240 min chart, we can see a very nice channel that was lately tested to prove its strength once again. This is a very good sign for bulls, and now the channel is targeting somewhere around 1.2300/50 area for the first half of the coming week. However, if we break the channel downside, I think we may get a test of 1.20 and maybe even 1.1900/50.
1.1950 should provide a very good resistance without threatening the trend north. If 1.20, followed by 1.1950 and 1.19 will not hold, we may be talking about serious retracement which may occur in the end to be a more serious correction and maybe even reversal in the end.
No matter what, we are still in the bullish market and therefore I am considering only buy opportunities.

 

[rezo_s]

USDCHF:

Very long term line was broken on Friday which may accelerate the move towards 1.25 and maybe even lower this week. This line may be tracked all the way from July 2003. This is not a little thing. 1.25 may be just an initial target. On the longer term this may mean move to as low as 1.20.
But lets not jump into conclusions so fast. This was Friday action, which is always to be treated little differently. If the move resumes the coming week and break will be proven, I will be seeking to reenter my bearish USD positions.

To summarize, my strategy is to look at how bearish USD really is after the Friday seloff, and if Friday move is proven, take short USDCHF. This is the pair I prefer buying - Swiss frank. Looking at that chart, I will put a sell order at 1.2830 (the broken trend line) with 60 pips stop and target around 1.25 for the start. This is a truly good risk reward trade to take, because swissy may play the same "come back to broken line and bounce back" game as back then around 1.3160 in the end of November (see the November posting with charts).

That is it for now,

Have a profitable week,

Rezo Shmertz

 

[darktone]

hello rezo

i remember not so long ago you where stopped out a E/Y short.
:idea: Have you noticed the decending triangle in the hourly? we're also tucked up tight to the daily downtrend.
Low risk short perhaps?

regards
dt

 

[rezo_s]

Hi dt,

Last short I had on eurjpy was :

open: Nov.11

short eurjpy on [email protected]

[email protected] (60 pips)

target@ 121.50 (330 pips)

Close: Nov.11

Result: -2.21% (-60 pips)

It was a month ago, yes. I had several long trades on that one since then; but now I am sidelined. I am more looking to the north for this one. Triangel is not that serious on the hourly, and may cause maximum of 100-150 pips move on 60 mins if it is not in the main direction. At the moment, direction is neutral to north on this one as far as I see it, but in order to guarantee move north, we should see a firm break of 132.
The scenario I see is: this week we may retrace as low as 129, bears fails to gain momentum and move is weakening -> reversing to retest the 132 area. If we break, we are going to go above 1.40 again; This is the way I see it, but the view will be clearer in a day or two. At the moment I am looking at USDCHF - best on in my opinion for now, followed by EURO. Both look good against USD.

Good Luck,

Rezo