Trading journal

[rezo_s]

Hello Everyone,

Little introduction here.

My mane is Rezo Shmertz, I live currently in Israel. If you wish you read about my trading style, its http://www.marketac.com/style.htm, my standard risk management applied: here
If someone is interested in getting familiar with my trading, those pages contain enough information to get the general idea.
I will be posting my trades and analysis here if there is no problem on side of this forum community

Currently I am looking to tale long position on AUDUSD, and short USDCHF. Maybe long the cable. Right now I am waiting for good entries. I will post once I enter any trade.

Have a good day everyone,

Rezo

 

[turtle trader]

Hi Rezo

What's your trigger for the AUD/$ - perhaps a close above July high?

Am currently short $/CHF following the break of reverse H&S neckline - it looks more than ready to me, what are you looking for here?

cheers
Turtle

 

[rezo_s]

Hi Turtle,

Well, my target on aussie is 7155
As for usd/chf, I opened today s [email protected], but was closed at breakeven after decline to 1.3255 (it got back to 1.32 and now it doen again @1.3145). I am considering to resell if I get to. Target is 1.2870/80, heres what I posted on moneytec.com earlier today, and the chart:
"thanx to downside pressure the channel was broken downside showing strong move to come. For now the cannel border should provide resistance. If we get back into channel, its not a good sign."
Will see. Market is volatile, but if I get to reenter, for now its possibility for sure.

 

[turtle trader]

Re $/CHF

Do you place a stop at breakeven? Given your target (which, near previous low, makes good sense to me as a medium term target) don't you need to give the trade a bit more space - maybe put a stop inside the old channel?

turtle

 

[rezo_s]

I may give a trade to run much more before moving to b/e, but in this case there is a chance for deeper correction, which can take out my initial stop and with more chancec smaller stop, so its safer to move to b/e. this way, in the worst scenario I dont get to profit from the trade - it will be kiss the stop and goodbye...I prefer it like this, and its better like this (over the time)

 

[darrenf]

Hello Rezo and welcome to T2W

I have read some of your posts previosly on Money tech although I only look at it now and again. I trade currencies almost solely and judging by your descriptions, we follow a fairly similar methodology.

I would agree with your comments about moving stops to b/e fairly quickly. This does result in a higher number of stopped out trades obviously but means losses are low over time which I also prefer. I am much more comfortable leaving a trade to run when I know the worst case scenario is no profit.

However, I have been doing this for a shorter time than yourself and also have a full time job. I trade my own account and have started from a low capital base. My results so far are promising, up 30% in a little over 2 months. Long may it continue! Max drawdown so far has been 6%.

Due to my job, I trade fairly long timescales although this seems similar to yourself (1 to 20 days being fairly typical).

Anyway, I look forward to reading/ contributing to your posts.

PS. I much prefer T2W to Moneytech. It is obviously less focused on forex, but most people on here are very helpful/ friendly and there are some very accomplished traders to learn from.

Darren

 

[rezo_s]

Hello Darren,

Moneytec community is quiet friendly/helpful. Sure, there are exeptions, but aren't there always and anywhere Anyways, very nice trading %results there. Good Luck !

On market:
Very nice move on swissy (now 13190) - maybe I get to reenter yesterday short at even better price. Now lets see where is it going to...I am watching the channel area - if it gets back into in, we may get higher correction (look at yesterday's chart for the channel). Euro (n.11687) is still in chanel, so it may take some time for ruto to advance higher. Maybe we go to lower border of the chanel before/if the move resumes. For now - I am waiting.'
Aussie bounced back as well (n.6820)...

 

[darrenf]

Rezo

Take your point on Moneytec. I suppose my preference may just boil down to my familiarity with T2W.

My only open position is long eur/usd from 1.1578. My stop is at breakeven so happy to let this position run for now.

Darren

 

[darrenf]

Rezo

Have just been perusing your homepage.

It's remarkable (and quite reassuring to me) that despite a relatively short trading history (of mine), our results are extremely similar in terms of risk/reward ratio, % of winners/ losers/ breakeven trades. Your attitude and measures towards risk control are also very similar.

As I say, it's reassuring to know that the methodologies I have developed personally for trading my own account are not a million miles away from those of a professional trader who is managing funds on behalf of others.

I will continue to follow your progress with much interest.

Darren

 

[rezo_s]

Very good, Darren.

Sorry couldnt reply earlier...litle buzy - not with market - its pretty mixed and uncertian at the moment. I've got a feling (just a feeling, not more) that tomorrow (because its friday) we may get some surprises. And its never good in forex...I am glad to see that you are doing good. All the best to you.
I was watching USDCHF, wanted to reenter, but seems like we are going to get correction. I cannot say exactly what I think, as picture is little mixed, but for longer term it is most probably for weaker USD...Will see. I prefer trading the market rather than forcasting it.

All the best,

 

[rezo_s]

Here are the level - I think if we go through 1.3280 area and close there well, we may get 1.34 easy. On the downside its only 1.3120/30 as I mentioned earlier. Dont know why, but I have close eye on this pair...is it for good or bad? well, we'll see that togather

 

[rezo_s]

Hello everyone.

Here's my strategy (more or less) for today. I am looking at:
audusd
usdchf
usdjpy
gbpusd
eurusd
as still good trades against USD. But now I think its better to wait for correction - at least a little in order to enter. I will choose maximum 3 of those listed above, and will decide later which once(s). When/if the correction starts, I will watch it to decide whether it is worth entering or not. Its Friday, so I hope to get good entries thanks to positions closings in the end of the week.

Good Trading,

Rezo

 

[rezo_s]

Ok, we did get a little push back. When I posted the last one, swissy was at 1.3165, now its 1.3205...If we look at the last chart, I think we are testing 1.3210 now. If we go through it, we get to /3250, followed by /80...as I said, if we go through /80, we may see 13400 (well, actually some resistance may be met @3350 first), and we may get even to mid 1.34s, as in that case we are back into channel...for now, even if it gets back into channel, I will be considering to sell (inside the channel), because next break to follow may be for good and towards 1.28s at least. Actually it is already getting back into channel, but there are 2 lines as you may see.

 

[rezo_s]

well, here we go - the seloff on euro and swissy, Euro @1.1630 (70 pips down in 10 minutes). If we look into euro channel, I think we are going to 1.16 area for now; lets see how it goes afterwards. Same on swissy - now @1.3260, and inside the channel. But swissy has much more room inside the channel - upto +1.34...lets see where is this going.

 

[rezo_s]

Euro is going down, but if we look at the picture, 1.1570-1.16 area may be a good place to take long positions. We already saw how the price bounced off those levels, and I think its not a bad possibility for trading. I will be looking close at those levels and if confirmed technically and entry signal appears somewhere near that area, I will be taking long for possible upper border of the channel: 1.1850 -> +1.19. Will determine exactly later before entering. Depends on what the stop width will be. At the moment its 60-100 pips. Very wide possibility. Exact level will be determined before/if entering, and depends on entry price and volatility till then.

 

[rezo_s]

Ok, lets take a look at euro once again:
Well, it is about to break downside, and if it happens, we may target 1.1365 at least - maybe 1.13.
For now this conclusion is made purely on the cannel pattern. I don't see this scenario becoming reality yet. However, if there will be no bounce back upside on Monday-Tuesday, I will probably be shorting (lets see the week closing first). Will see. I am watching the market for now, and may still take long if there will be a signal. If the buy signal arrives above 1.1585-95, I will pass the trade, because stop will be very wide. Another one on watch is cable. May take long here as well. Correction is little overdone due to end of the week position closings. Nothing to be surprised about. Even the break of channel may be taken skeptically because of Friday. On Friday we don't see what market wants for next week, but rather what it did current week...well, mostly on Fridays this is the case, and no matter what, Friday is always different from regular mid week day... :!:

 

[rezo_s]

I'm done for this week, see you all soon

Good weekend!

 

[ChartMan]

I see you like tramlines... a man after my own heart

 

[rezo_s]

Saturday, October 04, 2003


EURUSD:
Weekly opening around 1.1460
Weekly closing around 1.1570

As we see, on the longer term charts we still got euro going up. So for now there are still no serious concerns about the Fridays' sell off. However, we are going up without any more or less serious correction for one month now (since we reversed near 1.08). I am not saying 1 month of move in certain direction is what it takes for market to take corrective move, but on the other hand I cannot say that we are going to resume the move up right away. Friday action sometimes brings in confusion, so for now, in order to say whether I am going long or short for the next week, I will watch the market for the coming 2-3 days. It's still too early to short now (need more confirmation), and not the best time to take longs as well. I think couple days will clear the situation. Unless of course we are going to get into flat market.
Same situation is observed with the rest of the majors. This may be the Friday confusing market, and may be the real thing. In addition there are 2 euro crosses I will be taking closer look at in the beginning of the week - eurgbp and eurjpy, but little later about those two. Meanwhile I will soon post here a table with possible initial targets for the near future (1 week - 1 month) in either direction, i.e. what are the targets if we are going up, and what are the targets if we are going down (once again, I will need 2-3 days at least to take any position on majors and decide which way to trade, so keep yourselves updated).

cheers ChartMan

 

[rezo_s]

I see you like tramlines... a man after my own heart

Tramlines :cheesy:
Actually they are of some indication, but not of the biggest importance for me. I use these lines as a confirmation tool, and not for trade decidion...For example, swissy did break the channel downsid, but now its back in...so if euro does break downside, it wont nessesarily mean anything, just as everything regarding markets :-0