Review Trading -Journal

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Hi everyone.
I´ll be posting here my trading reviews so you can see some of the trades I´ll execute during my trading day. Most of the trades here will be positive because I like to archive the good stuff. But trading is not like that, I also have negative trades. The good thing is overall my profits are greater than my losses.
The negative trades I usually study them and if the mistakes where significant, I´ll archive it too, so I can learn from it. Hope you enjoy.
If you want to see more, check out my blog: Review Trading
I am not selling anything. The idea with the blog is for it to be an extension of my trading journal. Just to archive my playbook, market view, preparation and trading ideas. Also from time to time I write articles to help begginers start trading. Feel free to contact me.

Fernando
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - MDVN - May, 10

Stock Selection Information
Goldman Sachs Reiterates Buy Medivation Ahead of Q1:13 Earnings Report
Benzinga's Top Initiations

MDVN - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - am vol - it was an idea from the morning sheet. Stock had good volume, greater than it´s normal average, so it was in my list.
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - To short the stock if it breaks the counter trend from midday.

Management
Entry Setup used: Counter trend break down - target the VWAP

MDVN - Intraday Chart

Trading Comments
Stock made a strong down move in the morning and consolidates (sellers in control). During midday it moves in the opposite direction (the counter trend). When it breaks midday trend line up, look for short position. First it consolidated below the trend line, I got in, but got stopped out. Then a divergence in CCI suggested another entry with good risk / reward. I try adding to the position at 51.30 (no trade was conducted at this price during the consolidation), but my offer did not get taken. When prices fail to continue down close to 51.00 I closed the position.

Evaluation
My worst mistake was not to add to the position. I tried but my offer did not get taken. Also the target was in the VWAP. If I have manage to add to position I would close partially at 51.06 and hold the core position for the final target at 50.70s / 50.60s. Still it was a great trade.
Must keep in mind that the first trade in the stock was an aggressive one. This would be a better choice if the market was weak, but since it was strong a more conservative approach would´ve been better.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - APOL - May, 14

Stock Selection Information
No relevant news on the stock. It was among the top positive for the day.

APOL - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - It was among the top positive for the day.
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - To go long above 20.25 on a pull back strategy

Management
Entry Setup used: Pull back strategy

APOL - Intraday Chart (with comments)

Trading Comments
Tape reading skills help to identify the 20.25 level. Buyers was not dropping this price. After it broke above the high of the day with increasing volume, I waited for the pull back and got a very good risk/reward position. 0.03 risk for a .30 profit (1/10).
Since I was expecting the market to make a sideways move or a correction I kept the stop on a close watch. The stock traded further to 20.75, but closing the position was the best choice when it fails to continue above 20.55.

Evaluation
I made two mistakes on this trade:
1-) I did not added to the position - this is a goal of my trading journal and I could not see a clear reason to add to the position, but I should´ve done it when the position start to develop.
2-) Fail to get back in the position - the stock was respecting the trend up so I should´ve got another long position around 20.40s.
Besides that it was a good trade with great risk and reward.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - M - May, 15

Stock Selection Information

Macy’s (M) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, 25% increase from prior dividend of $0.20. Forward yield 2.11%. For shareholders of record June 14. Payable July 01. Ex-div date June 12. The board increased share repurchase authorization by $1.5B, bringing the total share repurchase program to approx. $2.6B as of 04 May. (PR)

Macy's (M): Q1 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $6.39B (+4% Y/Y) in-line. (PR)

M - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - Earnings before the open
Pre-Market Volume - 6.56%
Trading Plan - To go long on a break up above 48.00 or to go long at a support level at 47.00

Management
Entry Setup used: Pre-market range break up | Pre-Market range fail break

M - Intraday Chart - with comments

Trading Comments
First trade was taken and it was a good entry. As the market was correcting and most stocks were failing to break pre-market range, this stock was hold. And there were buyers taking the offers, but the trade was stopped out.
Second trade was a really bad one. My plan was to go long if it break above the 48.80 level, but it never did. My anticipation cost me money. When it failed, I believe it would not continue the up move and soon would follow the market. So I shorted it on a failed break, but at a bad price. Should offer it around 48.70.
As it started working, I was concerned with taking the profit but had my target at 47.01, but I decided not to wait for it an closed the position. Tape reading helped me to get out of the position and to see it was hold the level in the open.

Evaluation
I don´t think it was a great trade, but it worked. My entries were not all good ones, mainly the second entry when I tried to anticipate the market, but it helped me see the stock was no longer strong.
Last exit should´ve been at my target and not to take profits. This was my plan. I must correct this and improve my morning sessions,cause I am not being very efficient at them.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - CSCO - May, 16

Stock Selection Information

Cisco (CSCO) is now up 9.4% premarket following last night's earnings and guidance. Lazard's Ryan Hitchinson notes guidance was light, but likely beat a lot of the whispers out there. He also believes management is remaining conservative amid improving demand trends. A bellwether no more, Cisco's moonshot is having little effect on the [[QQQ]]s, which are barely green at the moment.

CSCO - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - pre-market mover. Not in trading idea sheet. Added after 9:00
Pre-Market Volume - 38.39%
Trading Plan - To go long above 22.00

Management
Entry Setup used: Fail to break down support.

CSCO - Intraday Chart with comments

Trading Comments
Tape reading helped a lot to get in at this trade. At the level the bids were being hit and there was a lot of volume done, but the prices were not dropping. Bids were holding and a lot of buying. So I got long at 23.48.
When it broke above the 23.50 level momentum up was strong. Around 23.75 momentum start to dry of, also identified from the tape, so I closed the position.

Evaluation
It was a great trade and very well executed. I did not see other reasons to get in after that and do not regret the exit. First 30 minutes of the day is for momentum trades. When momentum is done (the reason why I got in the trade), I must exit.
I could´ve added to the position when it broke above .50 level. This is the only thing I need to learn how to do in this momentum based strategies. To go "all-in" cause usually they are good trades. In that scenario holding some stocks for next up leg momentum might be possible.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - WCRX - May, 20

Stock Selection Information
Actavis to Acquire Warner Chilcott in $8.5B Transaction; Price is $20.08 per Share

WCRX - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - Relevant news on the stock.
Pre-Market Volume - 15%
Trading Plan - To go long above 19.50

Management
Entry Setup used: Consolidation above support

WCRX - Intraday Chart with comments

Trading Comments
The stock gap higher and sold off right before the market opened. When the down trend was broke, and stock start to consolidate at the 19.50 level we started looking for long entries.
The tape reading skill was fundamental for this trade. There was a fight between the 19.50 seller and the 19.48 buyer. Every time it drops the 19.48, immediately we could see the buyer stepping up again. As soon as the 19.50 seller was done, prices moved up.
The plan was to add to the position as soon as the 19.59 offer appeared and so I did.

Evaluation
It took me a couple of stops to get the right time of the trade, but that´s just how things work. The plan was to get in at the consolidation, cause as soon as the seller was done price would move fast up (as it did). Did a good job there.
Adding to the position as it start to work was a great thing, cause it allowed me to control my risk pretty well. I followed my plan to take profits fast and to close the position at 19.80 but I must adjust this plan. The correct response would be to take profit at 19.75 and to hold the core for the final target at 20.00. I did not believe it would get there, but it did.
Even with the mistakes it was a great trade.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - BMY - May, 22

Stock Selection Information

Benzinga's Top Upgrades
Citi upgrades Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) to Buy from Neutral and raises its price target to $55 from $33 saying the company's "very broad checkpoint agent [is] positioned to capture a very significant share of an emergent $24 billion checkpoint agent market." Citi also hikes its FY17 EPS forecast by 31%.

BMY - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Pre-Market Volume - under 3%
Trading Plan - To go long above 45.50

Management
Entry Setup used: Open drive flag pattern

BMY - Intraday Chart with comments

Trading Comments
Tape reading helped on entry, were I identified a seller around 45.65. It lift price once, but fail to continue, so I closed position. Then it lifted again, but this time it did not fail. Also the 46.18 level is were sellers start to hold.
The re-entry level was 45.75. There was a big buyer spotted at that level in the tape.

Evaluation
It was a good trade, but I made a mistake on execution when I did not get out at 46.05. My order was ready, but I did not have my screen correct selected. When I hit enter, it did not send the order. Still I manage to get out at 45.96.
Also I must learn to get back in. After closing a successful trade, must fine the stop where I would get back in again.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - HPQ - May, 23

Stock Selection Information

1-)The broad selloff isn't touching H-P ([[HPQ]] +14.2%) following last night's earnings. Jefferies' Peter Misek weighs in with an upgrade from Sell to Hold. He praises H-P for having the discipline to sacrifice PC market share to retain profitability (unlike DELL; Whitman (transcript): "Maybe that's what you do when you're about to go private.") Misek also likes the cash flow guidance of $7.5B - "(it) materially changed our view of H-P margin, cash flow, and EPS prospects."
2-)Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs
3-)UPDATE: J.P. Morgan Reiterates Neutral Rating, Raises PT on Hewlett-Packard Company on Expected Upward Trends
4-)Benzinga's Top Pre-Market Gainers

HPQ - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - Earnings released yesterday after the close
Pre-Market Volume - 15.5%
Trading Plan - Go long at support: 23.75 or 23.50 || Go long above resistance at 21.25

Management
Entry Setup used: Momentum plays on both trades

HPQ - Intraday Chart - with comments

Trading Comments
After a strong down move yesterday on the SPY, a bounce up was a possible scenario. HPQ had it´s earning released yesterday with a strong up reaction to it.
Today, at pre-market, it was trading in yesterday´s after-hours range. The possible supports were 23.75 or 23.50. When it open around 23.00, the bids were being hit, but price was not drop. Tape reading skill paying off this time again. Got it at 23.02 (after 2 stops) and the position develop. Momentum play to the upside. It slowed down around 23.30s and when it dropped I got out at 23.28.
It start to consolidate, and when it broke the consolidation up, another momentum play: got in at 23.49. This positions was held to 23.75.

Evaluation
The first 2 stops were very small losses, but this is part of the game. When the positions start to work I made my money back. It was one of my goals for today to get back in stock after a winning trade. HPQ provide me an opportunity, that I took, but still can improve on this skill. After 10:00 there was a break I could´ve built my position, since it was trending up.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - MRK - May, 28

Stock Selection Information

1-) UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Merck to Buy, Raises PT Following SOTP Analysis
2-) Three Big Pharma upgrades: Jefferies takes Merck (MRK) and Bayer (BAYRY.PK) to Buy from Hold and Deutsche Bank lifts GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to Buy from Hold.

MRK - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - Stock got upgraded from hold to buy
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - To go long above 48.00.

Management
Entry Setup used: Long above resistance

MRK - Intraday Chart - with comments

Trading Comments
Reading the tape help a lot on this stock today. First the bids were being hit and price was not dropping. When it moved above 48.00, it was my entry signal confirmed by what I saw on the tape. Later the 48.30 level started to work as a resistance. When it broke above, it became by adding entry signal. Finally when it start to show that the sellers were hold prices, I hold out.

Evaluation
I did not followed exactly what I had planned, closing my position before I wanted. My exits on the stock were not good. I could´ve taken a little bit more hit and get out at better prices. Still it was a good reading of the market, when I realized there was not much momentum, turning the positions into a holding one. Overall I was glad with the way I traded it.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - SFD - May, 29

Stock Selection Information

1-) Heard during Smithfield Foods' (SFD) conference call: Execs say the sale to a Chinese company is "good news" for the pork industry as a major U.S.-based food company ties in with an extensive Chinese distribution network. They also note Shuanghui sells in other major Asian markets such as Japan and Korea. Both CEOs reiterated that Smithfield's business and operations will remain largely the same. (webcast)

2-) More on the Smithfield Foods (SFD) acquisition: Under the seemingly generous terms of its deal to be acquired by Shuanghui International, no Smithfield facilities or locations will be closed and the existing management team will remain in place. The board indicates it expects resistance from U.S. regulators and has a breakup fee embedded as part of the deal - but with pork products flowing from the U.S. to China - (instead of the reverse) - landing approval may be easier than in prior U.S.-China mergers. SFD +25.1% to $32.49, 4.6% below the deal price.

3-)Smithfield Foods (SFD) confirms it sold itself to Shuanghui International for $34 per share in a deal valued at $7.1B. The transaction is slated to close in the second half of 2013 after regulators weigh in. SFD +25.9% premarket to $32.70.

4-)UPDATE: Shuanghui Intl., Smithfield Foods Agrees to Combination, SFD Holders Will Receive $34/Share in Cash

5-)Smithfield Foods (SFD) is close to selling itself to China's Shineway, according to a WSJ report. A deal would land in the $4.5B to $5B range to mark a 25% to 30% premium over Smithfield's closing yesterday. SFD +23.2% premarket to $31.99.

SFD daily chart

Watch List Reason - Had relevant news in the morning, big gap up and great pre-market volume
Pre-Market Volume - 320%
Trading Plan - To go long above 27.00

Management
Entry Setup used: Many different entries.

SFD intraday chart with comments

Trading Comments
Tape reading was extremely useful today with this stock. It was clear that there was a very strong buyer at the stock. From time to time we could see prints greater or equal a 1500 done at the bid, and prices would just not drop. That gave me a lot of confidence to trade the stock in the morning. First half hour I don´t care about about what the market is doing, after that it confirmed that would try to move higher, which also helped the confidence in the up move. So I was building a position around and had a good position when above the up trend line. I was expecting it to explode at some point due to the amount of volume the buyers were taking, which never happened when I was positioned. When it broke the up trend and the 32.58 buyer dropped I closed the position with some profit.

Evaluation
I did a great job in sizing up and building the position at the stock. My trading plan was good and I executed it correctly, the trade just did not worked as expected. I was in control of my risk and adding / taking profits as the stock was moving up, manage to have a very strong position with a very good price on the stock.
Tape reading was critical to this trade cause I could see the buying pressure on the stock.
I also manage to be positive on the stock and for future trades, if I am able to execute as well as I did today, I am sure it will pay off big time.
Note: in the afternoon the stock move a 1.25 on an explosive move, probably because of the amount of buyer it had in the morning.
 

fercabr

Junior member
26 0
Trade Review - EMC - May, 30

Stock Selection Information

EMC increases the size of its buyback program to $6B (authorized over three years to December 2015) and says it plans to repurchase $3.5B worth of common stock by the end of FQ2 2014. The company also initiates a quarterly dividend of $0.10/share and says it plans to alter its capital structure to include more debt while still "maintaining a strong investment-grade profile." (PR)

EMC - Daily Chart

Watch List Reason - News on the stock
Pre-Market Volume - 10%
Trading Plan - To go long above 24.25 -

Management
Entry Setup used: big seller stepping lower

EMC - Intraday Chart with comments

Trading Comments
Tape reading was the key here. The initial plan was to go long on the stock, but at the open there was a huge seller on the box, offering 1.500.000 shares at 25.05. So I opened a short position in front of him. It did not take long for the trade to develop. At the 24.75 level some buying took place so I closed the position. The initial plan was to just take profits on a 100 shares at this level and hold a core, but I messed up execution. When it spiked up the plan was to add, but since I had closed the position I short it again. When the 24.75 level dropped again, I planned to add to position, but my offer did not get taken. Close it when it stop moving down.
On the way up the 24.92 level was holding prices, but market was moving up and the sellers were not strong to hold prices down. When the bids lift to 24.93 a long position was opened for a scalp, expecting the 25.05 to defend the level, but he was not there anymore.
When it got to the pre-market highs sellers came back I tried a short position but got stopped out on the spike up. Too bad, cause prices drop after that.

Evaluation
My first mistake was to close the position at the 24.75 level. That was not my plan, but I hit the wrong button when executing the trade. I manage to get back in, but failed to add when my offer did not get taken and prices dropped.
Also on the way up, the long position was strong and I should´ve held it when I saw that the seller was not at the 25.05 add to the position.
At the pre-market high i should´ve shorted it again at the 25.23 level. Too bad I did not.
Even with these mistakes, I had the trade under control at all times and it was a very profitable one.
 
 
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