Ok, euro already reached 1.1755 and is currently at that level. If we get to 1.1715/30 (which I think we will) - that is the levels to watch. If we break, it may trigger 1.1675/90. Very healthy retracement, and needed one. This is good for further continuation of the upside move. As I say, for now its considered only as a corrective move, but you never know what will it become 
good luck everyone!
good luck everyone!
Unfortunatly (?) I didnt enter the short position on cable. I had a sell signal @1.6660, and stop should have been placed @1.6740 (80 pips) with target of 1.6490 (170 pips). Not a bad ratio, but I wanted to short at 1.6680 for stop to be 60 pips. It never got back to that level to short, so I passed the trade. Maybe its for the best bcos swissy and euro are also on defencive now and those are the trades I am after for couple days now. Will be definatly entering these 2 positions, and another position - most probably short usdcad. here are charts with possible retracement areas for swissy and euro. But my entry may be independant on those levels anytime during the day. targets are same as I was posting. Although on euro target may rise higher. will see once entry aproaches.
Looking to sell usdchf - not sure yet when and at what price. I pass on euro, as stop there is around 1.1615 figure - big volatility recently, and target is only 1.1930, maybe 1.1970/80, so not best r:r here. I am choosing to trade swissy and maybe add long eurgbp to target 7180-7220. Will see.
Good Morning everyone!
No changes in current trades yet.
As for eurgbp: stop should be somewhere in 6960 - 6980 area, and target is in 7180 - 7220 area. Now if stop is at 6960 and target at 7180, its obvious maximum stop I can allow is 70 pips (which is a lot on this pair)...but lets say its 70 pips, so I can enter long only at/below 7030. Will wait today - it doesnt look that attractive at the moment, but still is a buy. Will watch it for now. Its friaday, so lets be careful with what we see - remember last friday!
No changes in current trades yet.
As for eurgbp: stop should be somewhere in 6960 - 6980 area, and target is in 7180 - 7220 area. Now if stop is at 6960 and target at 7180, its obvious maximum stop I can allow is 70 pips (which is a lot on this pair)...but lets say its 70 pips, so I can enter long only at/below 7030. Will wait today - it doesnt look that attractive at the moment, but still is a buy. Will watch it for now. Its friaday, so lets be careful with what we see - remember last friday!
Stop to breakevek on Canadian trade as well.
Open positions (both short):
[email protected]
[email protected]
stop on both @ entry level
targets as posted when opened
most probably those will be held over the weekend,
will look at the market later today, but its friday - and this time - short day (very sluggish and thin market in the end), so no use sitting around... most probably I finish work for today in couple hours - will see how US goes and that will probably be it. will post.
Open positions (both short):
[email protected]
[email protected]
stop on both @ entry level
targets as posted when opened
most probably those will be held over the weekend,
will look at the market later today, but its friday - and this time - short day (very sluggish and thin market in the end), so no use sitting around... most probably I finish work for today in couple hours - will see how US goes and that will probably be it. will post.
Ok, that is it for this week trading.
Will start posting tomorrow the summary and commentary on this week and the coming one to determone strategy for the coming week/near days. Trades will be held open.
Wish all to have a geat weekend,
Rezo Shmertz.
Will start posting tomorrow the summary and commentary on this week and the coming one to determone strategy for the coming week/near days. Trades will be held open.
Wish all to have a geat weekend,
Rezo Shmertz.
Sunday, October 12, 2003
EURUSD:
Weekly closing around 1.1800 (week opened around 1.1580, so we still advanced more than 200 pips this week). We have an up going channel for very long time now, and as we saw - each time the price got to its bottom (both sell offs on Friday a week ago and this Thursday) - the market used it to reestablish new long positions. Test of recent +1.19 highs seems to be inevitable now, when we are so close to that high. And at least a test is what we most probably will get. I cannot talk much about possibilities of break higher to new highs, because there is always a doubt, but retest seems to be very possible. On the onc hand, market is very overdone with this aggressive rally since we bounced off the 1.0770 level on Sep.02, but on the other hand, there is no limit to how far the market can go. We all know that market can be in overbought/sold status for quiet long time before correcting. At the moment one thing is for sure: till we are inside that channel, we are going up, but once we break it - we may get REALLY serious sell off. At the moment, recent highs of +1.19 are easily achievable through the channel, and that's another reason for me to think we are going to at least retest those levels once again.
Sentiment is pretty obvious out there, and I think no one has doubts about where the market was and is going since Sep.02. How far will this go? We'll have to wait and see, because noone really knows...
On the chart you can observe that there are some serious levels on the way down as supports:
1.1650 - 1.1700
1.1480 - 1.1550
At the moment I think we are not going to go below 1.15, but we may get there if we break the channel. In my opinion, a break of 1.15 would mean more than correction on the way up.
I will post more commentary on rest currency pairs in coming hours...
Hope you're all having a great weekend
EURUSD:
Weekly closing around 1.1800 (week opened around 1.1580, so we still advanced more than 200 pips this week). We have an up going channel for very long time now, and as we saw - each time the price got to its bottom (both sell offs on Friday a week ago and this Thursday) - the market used it to reestablish new long positions. Test of recent +1.19 highs seems to be inevitable now, when we are so close to that high. And at least a test is what we most probably will get. I cannot talk much about possibilities of break higher to new highs, because there is always a doubt, but retest seems to be very possible. On the onc hand, market is very overdone with this aggressive rally since we bounced off the 1.0770 level on Sep.02, but on the other hand, there is no limit to how far the market can go. We all know that market can be in overbought/sold status for quiet long time before correcting. At the moment one thing is for sure: till we are inside that channel, we are going up, but once we break it - we may get REALLY serious sell off. At the moment, recent highs of +1.19 are easily achievable through the channel, and that's another reason for me to think we are going to at least retest those levels once again.
Sentiment is pretty obvious out there, and I think no one has doubts about where the market was and is going since Sep.02. How far will this go? We'll have to wait and see, because noone really knows...
On the chart you can observe that there are some serious levels on the way down as supports:
1.1650 - 1.1700
1.1480 - 1.1550
At the moment I think we are not going to go below 1.15, but we may get there if we break the channel. In my opinion, a break of 1.15 would mean more than correction on the way up.
I will post more commentary on rest currency pairs in coming hours...
Hope you're all having a great weekend
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EURGBP :
Broke the triangle, I posted on thursday that I wanted to enter long position when it came back, but didnt ge to. Well, at least the bullish sentiment on this pair seems to be proven with this behaviour. Will see, maybe I still get to enter long here for 7180-7220 target.
Broke the triangle, I posted on thursday that I wanted to enter long position when it came back, but didnt ge to. Well, at least the bullish sentiment on this pair seems to be proven with this behaviour. Will see, maybe I still get to enter long here for 7180-7220 target.
EURJPY: Interesting situation developing here. For last 2 weeks I posted that this pair may be a sell, but not one of those two weeks confirmed the downside move or potential for such move. But now, I see some signs - enough to go short, and therefore this is one of pairs I will be looking to sell right at the week opening. Maybe even shourtly after the market opening. The initial target that seems to be reasonable and achievable is 125.50. Will look at the situation as market opens, because I still need a little confirmation at the opening.
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USDJPY: Huge seloff here, and no end is seen to it yet. I think next target is somewhere around 106.00/50. All possible levels are broken, despite many talking about correction. If we take a look at the chart, we see that there was (almost) not a single day of real correction after we broke the 116 neck line. The sad thing is that I've been waiting for a break of that line almost since the begining of this year, but I didnt get to benefit from this rapid seloff. I do not like entering agressive moves, and that is the reason for that. Another reason isthe interventions which were mixing both the market and the technical picture all the time causing confusion. Although, as I mentioned, next level seems to be 106.00/50 area, so I will be looking to sell for that target. Maybe this week, maybe later. In my opinion there is still much room for this currency pair to go (down), and 106 seems to be only the first target. Will see how it goes, no hurry.
USDCHF:
Holding short position taken on Thursday @1.3201 with target set at 1.2880. Stop was moved to entry level on Friday. Not much to add at the moment. 1.3130 is the last level. If price holds below that level, down move is not in danger. Once/if we break it for good, there are no serious barriers to retest those lows.
Holding short position taken on Thursday @1.3201 with target set at 1.2880. Stop was moved to entry level on Friday. Not much to add at the moment. 1.3130 is the last level. If price holds below that level, down move is not in danger. Once/if we break it for good, there are no serious barriers to retest those lows.
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Aussie has already broke its recent highs last week. Now I see target I am talking about recently - 7155. There is 7000 the round number which can provide resistance, but only temporary one. May consider this pair as a buy once I get a good price to enter if supported technically. Not much to talk about this pair as well. Of course correction is preferred before resumption of the move - that way market will have more power to push through 7000 number. Pure bullish pair here, but beware of the corrections caused by profit taking. If I see good entry, I will enter for sure.
USDCAD:
And finally the Canadian. Am holding short position from Thursday here as well @1.3330. Very aggressive seloff was seen on Friday, and just as on Aussie - now we are at new levels. We broke the June-July lows of 1.3350 area, the pair is near its 10 year lows, and week closed around 1.3210/15. I think it's a good sign for downside move potential. My initial target is set to 1.3070, stop was moved to entry level on Friday, and now looking forward to see the next week activities.
And finally the Canadian. Am holding short position from Thursday here as well @1.3330. Very aggressive seloff was seen on Friday, and just as on Aussie - now we are at new levels. We broke the June-July lows of 1.3350 area, the pair is near its 10 year lows, and week closed around 1.3210/15. I think it's a good sign for downside move potential. My initial target is set to 1.3070, stop was moved to entry level on Friday, and now looking forward to see the next week activities.
