FX Trading Sep 03-07

[trendie]

new week, new month. (hope your accounts were pleasantly improved by this volatile August - quite good 4hr stretches over past couple of weeks or so)

although mostly we are day-traders, any views on any pairs that might be worth watching on a longer time-frame?

good trading to you all.

EDIT: just rememebered! its Labo(u)r Day for the US, so happy holidays to the US traders out there. This reminds me of a seasonal trade in the Indices where you buy the Dow after Labo(u)r Day, and hold into the second week of the New Year. Anyone else heard of that one?

 

[Atilla]

new week, new month. (hope your accounts were pleasantly improved by this volatile August - quite good 4hr stretches over past couple of weeks or so)

although mostly we are day-traders, any views on any pairs that might be worth watching on a longer time-frame?

good trading to you all.

EDIT: just rememebered! its Labo(u)r Day for the US, so happy holidays to the US traders out there. This reminds me of a seasonal trade in the Indices where you buy the Dow after Labo(u)r Day, and hold into the second week of the New Year. Anyone else heard of that one?

Good evening all...

Looking at cable, with all the rate decisions I'm pencilling in a rise to 2.05 levels again.

I have cable in a band and don't see it falling below 1.98.

I'm flat at the mo waiting for a a small pull back and my 4 hour charts to show me the way.

Prosperous trading everyone.

 

[jacinto]

me no trade this evening

me expects wolfe wave down euryen

to be honest, think the target is a bit stretched on the time front (8 - 12 gmt) but wouldnt surprise me to get that ascending triangle in blue

 

[Atilla]

me no trade this evening

me expects wolfe wave down euryen

to be honest, think the target is a bit stretched on the time front (8 - 12 gmt) but wouldnt surprise me to get that ascending triangle in blue

I'm not too hot on EURJPY but here is a have a go attempt...

1st move EURJPY to 160.75 regions
2nd move EURJPY to 152.00 regions. Might even take it to 150.

On one hand there is the undwinding of the YEN carry trades and on the other the flight of clever money from the Dollar to the Euro (which I know you pooh pooh...).

Tough to call.

I'll start watching it see if I can get a handle on the moves.

 

[jacinto]

I'm not too hot on EURJPY but here is a have a go attempt...

1st move EURJPY to 160.75 regions
2nd move EURJPY to 152.00 regions. Might even take it to 150.

On one hand there is the undwinding of the YEN carry trades and on the other the flight of clever money from the Dollar to the Euro (which I know you pooh pooh...).

Tough to call.

I'll start watching it see if I can get a handle on the moves.

hi atilla,

me no opinion on anything

however me thinks 159.90 is a tough cookie. IMO, move is either down, or down :cheesy:

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD....:cheesy:

 

[JillyB]

I managed a +3 pips on my overnight trade. It wasn't in profit at 8am this morning so I left it with an OCO to take a few pips of profit.

Can't see there being any movement today either on the GBP/JPY or the Cable because of the holiday.

As Jesse Livermore said 'There's a time to go long; a time to go short; and a time to go fishing'.

Today is definitely a time to go fishing
Or finish off some backtesting!

 

[shadowninja]

Today is definitely a time to go fishing

That is what I've done. Came back with salad, apples, bananas, red wine, nuts, seeds, oh and fish. Amazing what you can catch at River Tesco.

I am short on EUR/USD....:cheesy:

I am thinking of going short and holding the position for a couple of days. Is your position just for the day?

ETA: I am going to wait until it breaches 13620 to confirm a new downward trend; at the moment, it could be a whipsaw with a continued upward trend. And it isn't moving quick enough for me to do an intraday trade right now (neither is EUR/JPY, annoyingly).

 

[Mr.Black]

I am closing my short for 17 pips profit....:cheesy:

 

[shadowninja]

Why? If it reaches a downward trend line, I'm buying in for a couple of days. It could touch 13620 and then head back down, which will be my indicator to buy. Otherwise it will continue to resume the original upward trend for the last week or so and today was just a whipsaw. All those in disagreement say, "Shut up, Darren!".

ETA: crunch time right now! (17:40)

 

[rjc]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this thread for a while and thought I'd pop in and say hello.

I went short earlier today on eurusd with targets around 1.3580, 3480 and 3420. I'm only a break even sort of trader though so the chances are I'm wildly wrong.

 

[JillyB]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this thread for a while and thought I'd pop in and say hello.

I went short earlier today on eurusd with targets around 1.3580, 3480 and 3420. I'm only a break even sort of trader though so the chances are I'm wildly wrong.

Hi RJC,

Nice to have you here. I personally don't trade the eur/usd, but I know that there are others on this thread that do.

It's been pretty quiet here the last few weeks - holidays etc, - but hopefully everyone should be getting back into full time trading mode soon.

I'm long on the Cable tonight for my overnight trade - just waiting for my entry to be triggered. I'll let you all know how it does in the morning.

 

[tightstops]

make the first target 1.3590

 

[rjc]

Thanks for the welcome JillyB and looking forward to participating more as time permits. Tightstop, thanks for that - just looked and revised first target to 3595.

As is often the case with these things though, the main strategy I use has thrown up several poor signals in a row after the large moves in August with conflict between different time frames. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as the 8hr chart is still giving me signals to short eurusd but we are getting close to a possible change in trend - the 4 hour is already indicating a potential upwards move. I decided though to stick with just concentrating on one time frame at a time so while the 8hr says down I'll hang on but there may be a fierce updraught

 

[shadowninja]

I suspect there is money to be made by shorting intraday or 1-2 days. Looks like the last two weeks of steady climbing from a low of 13360 to a high of 13722 has finished, looking at the 1 hour chart.

ETA: personally, I'm waiting for the hour chart to touch the descending trend line (guestimate, around 13615, this afternoon some time), then if it heads back down, I'll buy.

 

[hornblower]

Thanks for the welcome JillyB and looking forward to participating more as time permits. Tightstop, thanks for that - just looked and revised first target to 3595.

As is often the case with these things though, the main strategy I use has thrown up several poor signals in a row after the large moves in August with conflict between different time frames. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as the 8hr chart is still giving me signals to short eurusd but we are getting close to a possible change in trend - the 4 hour is already indicating a potential upwards move. I decided though to stick with just concentrating on one time frame at a time so while the 8hr says down I'll hang on but there may be a fierce updraught

Hi
I trade the euro /usd
looking at the daily chart for the last month ,we are in a down trend, price hit the fib line at 1.3669 and is now at 1..3611, next fib line down is 1.3554

on the 22nd of july we had a higher high, and then higher low
on the 6th Aug we had a lower high , and on the 16th aug a lower low
31st Aug a lower high , and I am looking for a lower low at 1.3554
and lower after that
regards
Hornblower

ps on the 15 min chart its running down the 63 degree gann line and that strong signal at the moment

pps 1150 am
anyone fancy a reversal around 12.30 and a return to 1.3606 for 4 pm today ?

 

[hornblower]

euro/usd
long from 12.25

stopped out for -10

 

[shadowninja]

euro/usd
long from 12.25

Why so? I am guessing Fib Retracement?

 

[jacinto]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this thread for a while and thought I'd pop in and say hello.

I went short earlier today on eurusd with targets around 1.3580, 3480 and 3420. I'm only a break even sort of trader though so the chances are I'm wildly wrong.

hi rjc,

welcome, i dont trade the eurusd much anymore. at the moment focused on yen pairs....mostly eurjpy and audjpy. nice little movers. dont really like gbpjpy, gives bigger moves, but kind of gives me the creeps.

also trade cable, but not of late for the same reason.

happy trading

j

 

[Marwan2010]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this thread for a while and thought I'd pop in and say hello.

I went short earlier today on eurusd with targets around 1.3580, 3480 and 3420. I'm only a break even sort of trader though so the chances are I'm wildly wrong.

RCJ - if you think you are wrong - than YOU ARE!
what you think will manifest
what you focus on will happen