FX-2008: w/c Jan-14th

[bbmac]

gbp

The screenshot is the potential resistance insofar as the 4hr previous sswing hi and lo's are concerned.

That overnight resistance in the 9650/60 area coincided with the 50% fib of the 9741-9566 (y/day's hi - today's asian low) which of course was also in area oof 50% fib (already breeched in y/days up move) of the 9829-9482 fall.

The nearer term 9618-20 area resistance was right on the 38.2% (already breecehd to upside) of the longer 9849-9482 fall, and came in the last 5/15min potential sbr zone of this down move 9583-9619.

Mni latest: offers 9630/35 likely above local resistance, stronger at 9650/60 area, with bids at the overnight/asian lows 9565 area stronger into 9550, ahead of 9525/20 and 9500 area possibily holding bids too.

Although an 82pips lo-hi range so far today, this early london/european session contained in a consolidation of 50pip range so far.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Confused picture atm, 1hr screenshot shows why:

The breackets show the recent 1hr congestion [where most price action has occurred.) There have been failed breaks to the upside and dosnside before a breturn to the channel congestion. The 2nd upside break failed from a higher high and the 2nd downside break failed from a higher low!!

make of it what you will. Lol.

 

[timm]

Hi Dev

I'm not criticising you for telling us really, and I'm not exactly perfect myself, but why are you telling us this?

I ask, because the way i see it, being informed of this by you provides members with very little, if any benefit.
Perhaps if you attached a chart, showing the trade and reasons for the trade, other members could gain something from knowing what trades you are doing :idea:.

Hey. Speaking as a spectator, I like to see people's live (or nearly live) calls on these threads. We used to have a lot of them. I couldn't care less about seeing charts and the mumbo-jumbo people come up with to justify their trades. You can keep that stuff for your journals IMO.

 

[bbmac]

reply to timm

timm, welcome to the thread.

Live calls are useful if within the spread, ie live in realtime particularly if trading on the 1min trigger as i do. This just isn't practical in a threaded forum like this, without a voice or at the least instant messaging text like a chat room. Obviously the longer time frame calls are less time sensitive but it's still a little impractical in this medium.

Late calls are pretty much useless as are comments like 'I just went short at 2000' when price is at 1950 particularly for day traders,.... as are posts like 'I just made 50pips on xx, without showing some explantation etc..'

As a result, This thread is about analysis more than anything, what you might call the 'mumbo jumbo'

 

[bbmac]

gbp returns to the 1hr congestion channel mothership. Lol.

The congestion channel broke to the downside past yesterday's lows at 9547-44 area, before a fast recovery off the lows at 9529, now finding local resistance at the 50% fib of the intraday down move 9654-9529.

The Set-up on the 1min (trigger) is shown below. The 5min (intermediate) having a confirming re-entry set-up.

 

[bbmac]

The 5min confirming Re-entry set-up at that 50% fib is shown below:


With these trend re-entry set-ups you often get an attempt at price going again with prevailing trend even if a new low/high may not be made.
5min Re-entry type 4

 

[fibonelli]

if "mumbo jumbo" is effective and intelligent TA, bring it on!

 

[bbmac]

forexfactory quicksilver's gbpusd thread

with reference to Timm's post above; I spent some time lately in the forexfactory's gbpusd thread started by a guy called quicksilver in the forex discussions forum. Like this medium it is a threaded forum and that particular thread is very well populated and active and can number well over 100 with members and guests at busy times.

Generally speaking it is a very low quality discussion with late / obviously false calls (one guy today even, after posting he had shorted at 9653 with stop at 69, then posted to say he had changed his mind and not actually entered the trade, as it quickly went against him ,lol) There is very little if any real analysis just a collection of ego's predicting whether it will go up or down. I won't be returning there in a hurry.

 

[bbmac]

gbp cont...

speaking of analysis;

Another downside break of that earlier mentioined 1hr congestion zone saw a smart recovery up and through for an upside break, price then breaking the 4hr decending t/line joining highs of 31/12 and 15/1 (coming through at 9700-05), price finding resistance at 9719 area the 38.2% of the 0101-9482 move which too is in the hourly 9705-9755 congestion zone discussed y/day.

 

[29Investments]

Where are all the old traders gone ? dc2000, trendie, jacinto etc.

Havent been on here for months and it seems to be limited to the ramblings of one person!

 

[trendie]

Where are all the old traders gone ? dc2000, trendie, jacinto etc.

Havent been on here for months and it seems to be limited to the ramblings of one person!

we're all still here.
this series of threads have been going for a long time, and we have all been through the ask every question possible phase, tested loads of systems (hans123, delta, breakouts), gossip, tidbits, advice and calls.
we need a new draft of newbies to join and ask those questions all over again. :cheesy:

it has been judged that posting calls without some background is a waste of time, so that has fallen by the wayside.

jacinto has moved on, as he may have learnt all he needed and found no more use for T2W, as have a few others.

 

[wasp]

for what it's worth, view from the other side of the fence is that charts don't have a whole lot to do with it today. Everything's geared up to schizophrenic micro analysis of company results, the next tick in the S+P etc, and it's connotations for general, market wide risk appetite. Carry trades are gyrating in turn with this and it really is this, above all else, that's been driving the FX markets today, trust me.

It's been a pretty silly market today and while people trading v short term may be making a few quid out of it (and I hope you all are) good chance that there's no method to the madness today.

Just my $0.02 as always - good luck all.

GJ

I beg to differ GJ, the charts always tell you the answers....... You may well be right for the gears and cogs behind the why, but there were plenty of signs to the sell off in the Kiwi and Aussie markets on the charts, there always is

 

[wasp]

we're all still here.
this series of threads have been going for a long time, and we have all been through the ask every question possible phase, tested loads of systems (hans123, delta, breakouts), gossip, tidbits, advice and calls.
we need a new draft of newbies to join and ask those questions all over again. :cheesy:

it has been judged that posting calls without some background is a waste of time, so that has fallen by the wayside.

jacinto has moved on, as he may have learnt all he needed and found no more use for T2W, as have a few others.

The thing is, once the old regulars have found their feet as it were, there's very little to say. Once you have your rules and method and it works consistently; you're no longer testing and trying out new things etc, you just get on with it. Like any job, its all exciting at first and you go on about it all with wonder and sharing, but after a while, it just becomes monotonous and you learn to just trade the plan and that's it.

I think, in the old days when these threads were at their peak, everyone was still searching and testing ideas and looking for answers. We all have them now, so like Trendie says, we need a new batch of newbies to come along and do it all over.......

Also, these threads always seemed to be geared towards cable. I don't even watch cable these days and Jacinto went the way of the yen markets I believe....

 

[wasp]

Does anyone watch other markets to see for the day ahead? I know its common practise to watch the euro, cable and eur/gbp but there can often be a lot of clues in the Australasian markets for what may happen in the European ones in the day ahead.

Only just really noticed myself as I rarely watch/trade cable and the euro these days but definitely seems to be something worth keeping an eye on.

 

[wasp]

There may be.......

...... trouble ahead, but while there's music and .......... etc!

possibilities if resistance is held

 

[ali.walji5]

anyone noticing the bearish head and shoulders on the daily dollar index? may be a sign of things to come...
will try post chart

 

[shadowninja]

The thing is, once the old regulars have found their feet as it were, there's very little to say. Once you have your rules and method and it works consistently; you're no longer testing and trying out new things etc, you just get on with it. Like any job, its all exciting at first and you go on about it all with wonder and sharing, but after a while, it just becomes monotonous and you learn to just trade the plan and that's it.

So, true. I spend most of my day either doing business-related things or browsing forums (or playing Battlefield 2). I tend to trade EUR/USD more, too, and just use basic indicators to tell me when to go in. Nothing clever. I did post a potential pinbar and retrace move on the Trader_dante's thread. Not sure anyone noticed. *shrug*

 

[FXSCALPER2]

naturally, but v wary these days of trying to hard to equate correltion with cause and effect.

GJ

Equating correlation with causation is a logical error.

 

[wasp]

So far, so good........

...... trouble ahead, but while there's music and .......... etc!

possibilities if resistance is held

See whether support holds or lower we go.......

 

[knucklehead]

Made 257.89 percent in 2007 trading the markets. That was BAD made over 350% in 2006, I'm slacking
Follow the trend my friend, but it can change, occasionally Happy trading.

BTW that chart is going SIDEWAYS ....Don't trade it!

yah money is in the BIG swing....Mr Livermore
Made over 100 million in stock market crash of 1929.