FX-2008: w/c Jan-28th

[bbmac]

Roll up Roll up...

The NFP circus is in town today, Hoorrah!! Lol.

Wednesday's ADP saying +130k jobs against consensus of around +50k additions. All this follows last months disappointing +18k, and rise from 4.7 to 5.0% in un-emp rate and fall in manuf jobs.

PS: currently listening to magic.fm, I know of no other radio station that can play the carpenters, kenny and dolly and michael bolton in the same un-interupted mix.

 

[ChowClown]

Intraday thoughts...

Cable: i'm still biased long from this week's action so far, short bias will resume with an hourly close and break below 9815. Still have a long fib target from last week around 2.0020 which refuses to go away...maybe the news later will sort that out.

 

[rav700]

Hello, all
I have started trading full time...now after months and months of complications....
I will be glad to start posting again...
So how are you chowclown....:_)

 

[rav700]

So where are we currently.......lol
Cable has not got a clue wether it has got it clothes on or not...NfP and Ism should help it figure that out...
1. Chart Analysis shows that cable is definately in an up trend ....target =2.0050
2. February is generally a down month for cable ie last 15 Years data..

I will be shorting cable with all the major fundamentals and seasonal patterns and techincall indicators in mind at the 2.0050 level if i get a chance and ride it down all the way...

Best of luck
Rav

 

[ChowClown]

Hello, all
I have started trading full time...now after months and months of complications....
I will be glad to start posting again...
So how are you chowclown....:_)

Howdy Rav, you've bitten the bullet too eh....good on 'ya and good luck...liking your cable analysis :smart: although we're ready to turn on a dime.

What have you decided to trade in your plan?

 

[a_gnome]

Gosh, this is just like old times with Rav and Chow back. All we need now is JillyB, DC, Jacinto et al. and the gang will be complete.

I've started looking at some currency trades again and in an effort to add "liquidity" to this thread I'll do the odd post. I'm concentrating on EURUSD atm as the chart looks cleanest - this is an important concept that I'm working on presently.

Currently long from 1.4849 (pull back in an up-trend) though I am not expecting much movement before the NFP figures so I've got a tight stop in at 87 and I'll be closing out before the news release.

 

[bbmac]

9825-9959 seems to be the near term trading channel...upocoming U.s NFp etc may put paid to that.

Certainly today is rangy on the lower time frames, see 5min screenshot attached.

Some contraction in Daily pip ranges -vs- average ranges also this week, Today 52 lo-hi, y/day 113 for example, 5 day average 123, 10 day 176, 20day 170.

january saw a pip range lo-hi of 620 falling about it's averages for 5, 10 and 20 weeks being 706, 634, 601 respectively, although this week so far at 228 lo-hi falling below its 5 10 and 20 week averages of 364, 377, and 354 respectively. Doubtless NFP etc will affect this situation.

 

[bbmac]

chart rfeerred to above now attached

trouble with site today,? anyways screenshot attached here.

 

[shadowninja]

Well, I'm hoping GBP/USD falls, too. I have someone sending me a few k in USD.

 

[ChowClown]

trouble with site today,? anyways screenshot attached here.

...think so - chug....chug......chuuuuuug.

 

[bbmac]

screenshot is clearer

Apologies fore screenshot above this one is clearer although may be overtaken by events as cable busying up strongly off 9885 area support.

 

[ChowClown]

Gosh, this is just like old times with Rav and Chow back. All we need now is JillyB, DC, Jacinto et al. and the gang will be complete.

I've started looking at some currency trades again and in an effort to add "liquidity" to this thread I'll do the odd post. I'm concentrating on EURUSD atm as the chart looks cleanest - this is an important concept that I'm working on presently.

Currently long from 1.4849 (pull back in an up-trend) though I am not expecting much movement before the NFP figures so I've got a tight stop in at 87 and I'll be closing out before the news release.

Excellent, will be good to have you around. DC told me before Christmas that he would be getting back on it, after time off travelling. Hopefully he'll pop by sometime....we seemed to have a mix of good folk here for a while, for sure.

 

[a_gnome]

Currently long from 1.4849 (pull back in an up-trend) though I am not expecting much movement before the NFP figures so I've got a tight stop in at 87 and I'll be closing out before the news release.

Looks like I got lucky on that one: I managed to sell it out on the pop-up to the figure. Of course it may well power through now but with the news out soon I got more out of the move than I was expecting.

 

[bbmac]

gbp friday

So, add in the most recent higher high at 9940 (in that resistance zone to 9959) and now the lower low as price sells past the previous low of 9885 area, and we got an even crazier pre-nfp ball game in gbpusd...or have we?? any one spot any clues?

 

[ChowClown]

So, add in the most recent higher high at 9940 (in that resistance zone to 9959) and now the lower low as price sells past the previous low of 9885 area, and we got an even crazier pre-nfp ball game in gbpusd...or have we?? any one spot any clues?

...Weds high/low still holding, for now....if that breaks i'll be looking for support around 1.9770-75. If Weds low holds, i have a revised upside zone of 1.9980-2.0010.

 

[ChowClown]

...Weds high/low still holding, for now....if that breaks i'll be looking for support around 1.9770-75. If Weds low holds, i have a revised upside zone of 1.9980-2.0010.

OK, watching now to see if it will close below Weds low for the next trade decision....managed a quick +11 on the initial test.

If the hour closes below 822, i'll watch for an entry off the 5min with 1st target around 770-75.

 

[ChowClown]

OK, watching now to see if it will close below Weds low for the next trade decision....managed a quick +11 on the initial test.

If the hour closes below 822, i'll watch for an entry off the 5min with 1st target around 770-75.

...all in, all out at 770 for +20. Happy to leave it there now until the ISM dust settles.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd post-nfp price action

Price spikes up to 9899 in the immediate aftermath of nfp before selling down to 9785 area on the mixed data (re this month's -18k and upward revision last mth) creating a potential 5/15min SBR zone of that former support at 9825-9899, finding resistance there on the pullback from those 9785 lows which also coincided with the then 23.6% fib of the intraday move down. A pretty perfect technical confluence with the hidden divergence.


1min Re-entry type 4

 

[ChowClown]

...back to watch again for a while and will take an hrly break long (or short) of the 3pm bar, if offered before 5pm. Will trail with 1min support/resistance to end the week.

Until next week. Have a good weekend.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

same 5min hidden divergence based set-up as above 1min set-up now at the former bids 9720/30 now turned SBR in the last minor 5min SBR zone following the pullback from current intraday lows at 9653 area.

Everything looks oversold intraday to 1hr, so not sure this will see a new low, but the set-ups generally see at least an attempt to retest the area even if it met with in this downtrend example, a higher low?

5min [intermediate] Re-entry type 4

Nice to see new faces on the thread, hope it continues, but needs more discussion/analysis/calls whatever to make it worthwhile...have a good w/e.