FX-2008: w/c Feb-18th

[trendie]

new week, new trades.
is trading supposed to be tediously boring? does it mean I have "arrived"?

anyway, Monday is Presidents Day in the US. Will anyone be bothering to trade? Does it affect their methods when the US is off, or dont you think it makes any difference.

glad to be working from home if this cold-snap continues.

 

[shadowninja]

Last bank holiday, the market dropped 200 pips or so didn't it?

 

[BBPI_FXTrader]

if i get a signal from my system, i will trade, if not then not, i don't care what day it is

 

[rav700]

My Analysis

This is just my over all analysis for the week:
First of all Day wise:

Monday:
Consolidation and ranging day sell at the high and Buy at the bottom with tight stop losses. Also the Us Markets are closed as it is Presidents Day. So this should be the scalping day…Beware of the RBA Mins if you are trading the Aud/Usd Pair I have posted the trade below if you wish to follow.

Tuesday:

This is an options expiry day so in relation with this from my experience
The Dow should make a nice fall and should take down all the respective
Currencies ie UJ-----GU---- GY to test their lows……

Wednesday: This is the most important day of the week
As we have the following MPC Mins @ 9:30 Am GMT-----8-1 Pre
Core CPI-@1:30 P.M GMT-----0.2% Pre
Fed Mins@7:00 P.M GMT----

My advice is wait and watch on days like this it is good to stay out of the market
When there is so much news out …..If I can see a good Trade setup then I will
Make a Call…..

Thursday and Friday:
These should be follow on days from the results of Wednesday. Hence I will post nearer the time


This could be a very good Trade setup for Aud\Usd

AUD\USD: Be careful on this one as RBA Mins are out on the 18th of February and the story of this is that it is has failed to break the 9100 barrier on 5 different occasion from the 14th of November. On Friday this particular currency has shown some bullish sentiment due to the mins coming out….

I guess one could short this pair at 9095 with as stop @ 9110
First target = 9044
Second Target=9014
Third Target=8995

If it breaks the 100 zone it is a totally different story:
Go long @ 9112 with a stop @ 9090
Target 1=9147
Target 2=9184
Target3=9225



What supports the Short trade:
A: There is a triple top – Which has initiated on the 2nd of February and has been completed on 15th of February…
B: The stochs are in overbought conditions on Daily, 4Hrly which is good enough for a signal to short
C: The risk reward ratio is very good at this point

Best of Luck Happy Trading Rav

 

[rav700]

Cable analysis for Monday

GBP\USD:
Long @ 574 with a stop @ 544
Target1=610
Target2=657
Target3=702

Short @ 735 with a stop @ 755
Target1=702
Target2=658
Target3=611

This should be a good pair to range trade on Monday…
My Preferences still remain bullish on the hourly and 4 hourly basis and I am expecting a 735 touch by the close of play and to be settling down around the
650 at the end of the trading session

 

[rav700]

I would just like to say that if there are any newbies that do follow what I trade please trade at your own risk...as I do my best at providing the full analysis...I will be posting charts soon if things go well on the forum again....
Best of luck all other traders...Trendie seems to be doing a good job of keeping the thread alive...
Take care

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[2be]

I would just like to say that if there are any newbies that do follow what I trade please trade at your own risk...as I do my best at providing the full analysis...I will be posting charts soon if things go well on the forum again....
Best of luck all other traders...Trendie seems to be doing a good job of keeping the thread alive...
Take care

Happy Trading
Rav

Hi Rav, I was not treading on Mon, but I agree with your bullish sentiment on cable. The 4hr chart looks good for a multipip move up (from 9480-9460 current level), especially when EUR/GBP eventually goes down (4hr chart looks ready for sbstantial move down). If and when this happens there will also be a good trade (short) on EUR/JPY with a MACD divergence displayed on the 4hr chart.
These moves shall be in place by the EUR index loosing strength or EUR loosing against CHF (4hr chart). EUR has appreciated at high speed against the basket of currencies and it needs to come down, this however does not necessarily mean a very substantial move on EUR/USD, though I think the pullback on this pair is also likekly, but atm usd is driven by equities, so we shall see what the S&P and the DOW will do.
Happy trading,
2be

 

[darktone]

Not so sure on cable atm. It had a chance to do something last week and failed. looking weak imo (at this point in time). Euro still looking strong across the board with room to move. JPY looks bout ready to kick some butt too.

 

[2be]

Not so sure on cable atm. It had a chance to do something last week and failed. looking weak imo (at this point in time). Euro still looking strong across the board with room to move. JPY looks bout ready to kick some butt too.

agree that EUR is much too strong atm, and its holding the cable down, there is Fib 88.6 retracement just below 9430, on the other side, there is not too much positive news from the UK to lift the cable either, so there seems to be a lack of decisive direction for the cable.

 

[ampro]

Not so sure on cable atm. It had a chance to do something last week and failed. looking weak imo (at this point in time).

Yes, it simply doesn't have the stamina to haul itself out of the crap at all. And it hasn't since it lost 2.0800 on the lame pullback attempt back in November.

It's been a sell candidate since then, and certainly a compound short since the turn of the year.

I can't for the life of me see a "long" on this pair at all. Definitely not below 9950, & should it manage to pop it's head above there, then the staged steps (higher lows) off a base any where around current levels would maybe justify switching sides.

But the value punt on this tired old vessel continues to roll from the short side on visits back up the ladder.

It's again sniffing at it's near term previous demand zone, having got hoofed pretty decisively down from the (prev) near term supply camp.

Again, looking back up the ladder must seem an awful long slog for any enthused Bulls at current levels.

 

[darktone]

Definitely not below 9950, & should it manage to pop it's head above there, then the staged steps (higher lows) off a base any where around current levels would maybe justify switching sides.

Have to admit my interest is a little closer than that. Certainly support in the 350 area but overall direction is down, on the look out for weakness around 650, if this plays out then 900 is a viable target.

imo

 

[ampro]

Have to admit my interest is a little closer than that.

Oh yes sir, it would sure be a boring state of affairs if everyone saw the same pretty price markers thru the viewfinder. That line in the sand up there at the 9950 about marks the extreme top of this drawn out range Cable is bouncing between. Secondary channel slightly below @ 9750-9650 warrants more than a cursory eye.

Mixed bags of stops will undoubtedly dictate those levels above/below. But it's not too difficult, given recent price action, to lay your traps at either side of the supply-demand camps to catch a lift. (9400 to the aforementioned channel).

It's what develops above that lower high marker up toward the big hurdle @ 9950 that will determine just how much poke these Pound Bulls still got in the tank.

All I was saying is, the less stressful option has been to bat prices back down off these upper levels. But I guess we'll see huh

Always keep a flip side option in your satchel.