FX-2008: w/c Feb-04th

[trendie]

new week, new month.

so, how was your first month of the new year?
has it been a good start?

does anyone believe the idea that the patterns in the first month are representative of the coming year?

 

[shadowninja]

"so, how was your first month of the new year?
has it been a good start?"

End of 2007 was bad but January has been good. This is on demo accounts, mind.

"does anyone believe the idea that the patterns in the first month are representative of the coming year?"

I just trade what I see. I won't try to predict anything.

 

[fibonelli]

EUR/USD (CME Futures) showing a possible triple top.

 

[ChowClown]

G'day all,

Missed the GBP/USD swing long this morning and now watching a potential Wolf Wave (short) off the 15min:- 795ish first then a run down around 720. This would help set up the next leg long (daily chart)...with an initial target of 2.0195 (1.382 extension)....

 

[shadowninja]

EUR/USD (CME Futures) showing a possible triple top.

Forexyard (who have their own thread on T2W) suggest a target of 1.4900...

 

[a_gnome]

The markets are all rather quiet today, perhaps digesting the mixed news from last week. I can't see anything trades that interest me enough to put on a position.

 

[tomaz55]

G'day all,

Missed the GBP/USD swing long this morning and now watching a potential Wolf Wave (short) off the 15min:- 795ish first then a run down around 720. This would help set up the next leg long (daily chart)...with an initial target of 2.0195 (1.382 extension)....

hi chow
i agree that cable will shoot up soon, i'm long at 9685 for 2.0030 tgt

 

[a_gnome]

Good break-down in EUR/USD. Unfortunately I was out on a walk but had I been at my desk I would have got in at around 1.4760. Interestingly enough EUR/GBP has moved sharply as well so GBP/USD has made a much more muted response.

 

[ampro]

Word has it the gist of the data was leaked y'day in a minor speech by an Institute Supply Management bod. Hence all the hoo haa.

 

[2be]

ISM released early there. Pretty weak number.

There is still a real possibility for cable to retrace lower, even to the late 9500

 

[ampro]

There is still a real possibility for cable to retrace lower, even to the late 9500

Well, I guess the stops are lining up all the way back to the years (closing) lows @ 1.94

T’was a bit of a hurried ascent from there last month, so I don’t doubt they’ll want to have another sniff at that zone. This s&r flip zone sitting at 9650 thru 750 is pretty important (for the Pound Bulls) for near term direction. Main Pound Bull stops will be layered above 1.9950 from here.

Things could accelerate down fast if the (weak?) stops cave around current levels. Certainly decent 2 way markers in the vicinity to suit all tastes though.

 

[2be]

Well, I guess the stops are lining up all the way back to the years (closing) lows @ 1.94

T’was a bit of a hurried ascent from there last month, so I don’t doubt they’ll want to have another sniff at that zone. This s&r flip zone sitting at 9650 thru 750 is pretty important (for the Pound Bulls) for near term direction. Main Pound Bull stops will be layered above 1.9950 from here.

Things could accelerate down fast if the (weak?) stops cave around current levels. Certainly decent 2 way markers in the vicinity to suit all tastes though.

Hi Ampro, I think that is is highly unlikely fo cable to breach9336, the Low made on Jan 22 2008, without first having a substantial trip north in the region of 20195 (mentioned by Chow earlier on) or even further into the mid 20300, and then a substantial move south is unticipated. The question is whether cable has reached the low in its present journey south (forming a part of EW 4, that if you are using EWs)
Happy trading to all!

 

[shadowninja]

They say demo accounts are easier to make money with. I've lost about 100pips today trying to pick the bottom.

 

[2be]

They say demo accounts are easier to make money with. I've lost about 100pips today trying to pick the bottom.

The next fib ret is 0.618 @9577 and 0786@9476 Both are possible, but the time is running on slightly in favour on the first, though the second is not exluded.

 

[ampro]

Hi Ampro, I think that is is highly unlikely fo cable to breach9336, the Low made on Jan 22 2008, without first having a substantial trip north in the region of 20195

The question is whether cable has reached the low in its present journey south (forming a part of EW 4, that if you are using EWs)

No, I don't pay too much mind to all that kinda stuff to be honest. If folks can make money utilizing whatever floats their boat, then all good & well I say.

I just prefer to keep tabs on the near term activity (supply-demand) levels first, followed by the next line & so on. If I get a low risk opportunity to take it on (either way), or compound a position I'll step up.

I don't care which way it pops first, long as it pays me a wage

Never underestimate the stench of fear!! If enough fearful money becomes unsettled, you'll crack your head on 1.94 faster than you can blink regardless of what Mr Elliot, Mr Fibonacci or Uncle Tom Cobley says

Good hunting.

 

[ChowClown]

The next fib ret is 0.618 @9577 and 0786@9476 Both are possible, but the time is running on slightly in favour on the first, though the second is not exluded.

Hi 2be,...cable giving joy this morning Happy 'walking' a 15min fib down to track this beauty...my target areas range 542 down to 506. Mindful though of how quickly they might turn this, from here.

 

[2be]

The next fib ret is 0.618 @9577 and 0786@9476 Both are possible, but the time is running on slightly in favour on the first, though the second is not exluded.

Buying first lot at 9574, hoping for the 0.618 fib retracement to hold SL 9470 just below the 0.786 retracement, target 9950

 

[ChowClown]

Buying first lot at 9574, hoping for the 0.618 fib retracement to hold SL 9470 just below the 0.786 retracement, target 9950

...fingers crossed for you. I won't be interested in longs until a higher high and low print above todays current high (9660).

 

[2be]

Hi 2be,...cable giving joy this morning Happy 'walking' a 15min fib down to track this beauty...my target areas range 542 down to 506. Mindful though of how quickly they might turn this, from here.

Hi Chow, I know that my entry is against the trend, since the big SL and a relatively small load, I calculate fibs on daily time frame at the close of the US session (CIS EOD data feed).With this in mind I intend to build my position if the trade progresses well.I will also take shorter trades when I sence there is stronger direction to the north.
Good to hear from you, happy trading.
2be

 

[ChowClown]

I'm still in nappies, as far as trading for a living goes...not yet confident/comfortable enough trading the intraday shifts in bias. In time perhaps.

ATB