hungrybear
Active member
- Messages
- 209
- Likes
- 0
Yes, interestingly on both the cash and the futures! Gap filled nicely, but Dax about 20 points short.
End of W3 up Bonsai?
End of W3 up Bonsai?
- Status
hb
from now to expiry, I would expect both cash and futures to
behave (during hours) in quite a similar manner.
F.V diff seems to be about 3 pts ?
And as the dow closed more or less where it was at 4.30 there
seems to be no internal momentum to push ftse any higher.
as you say, gap closed and a/d is negative.
as for the wave count, this clearly is not the wave 4 I was expecting.
so probably wave 3 of c as you suggest.
it will be interesting to see whether the 1 day breaks its fall ?
from now to expiry, I would expect both cash and futures to
behave (during hours) in quite a similar manner.
F.V diff seems to be about 3 pts ?
And as the dow closed more or less where it was at 4.30 there
seems to be no internal momentum to push ftse any higher.
as you say, gap closed and a/d is negative.
as for the wave count, this clearly is not the wave 4 I was expecting.
so probably wave 3 of c as you suggest.
it will be interesting to see whether the 1 day breaks its fall ?
hungrybear
Active member
- Messages
- 209
- Likes
- 0
If this is a C-wave it cant' go much further as it can't take the top out
if it is the end of c then any break of 4000 should give a
low risk short.
if it breaks to a new high then we have to reconsider what
is going on as 4411 was itself a new high.
My first thought is we may find ourselves in a new 5 leg up move
with 4411 as end of wave 1 ?
That would put top of the channel within reach !
and a run up to thanksgiving is not unknown ?
low risk short.
if it breaks to a new high then we have to reconsider what
is going on as 4411 was itself a new high.
My first thought is we may find ourselves in a new 5 leg up move
with 4411 as end of wave 1 ?
That would put top of the channel within reach !
and a run up to thanksgiving is not unknown ?
end of c would make 'B', so the retrace could be 'large'
if we make a new high, I am thinking that 4411 was wave 1
so this rally may be wave 3 (starting at 4277 ?) . in which case no retrace required in the near term.
its still only first thoughts.
PS: actually, I think the high was 4412.3 ?. can somebody confirm ?
if we make a new high, I am thinking that 4411 was wave 1
so this rally may be wave 3 (starting at 4277 ?) . in which case no retrace required in the near term.
its still only first thoughts.
PS: actually, I think the high was 4412.3 ?. can somebody confirm ?
Last edited:
not much to choose between any strategy it would seem.
so have added another long with a view to reversing if wrong.
arguments in favour are a bit thin
mm's trying to make it expensive to buy in ?
no sign of a gap anywhwere.
indicators are in favour of up move.
arguments against
correction to 4277 may have been too brief to get rid of the bears
climb looks too steep.
so have added another long with a view to reversing if wrong.
arguments in favour are a bit thin
mm's trying to make it expensive to buy in ?
no sign of a gap anywhwere.
indicators are in favour of up move.
arguments against
correction to 4277 may have been too brief to get rid of the bears
climb looks too steep.
that is certainly what your chart shows.
however, I have taken a somewhat different view.
one of the problems with momentum indicators is that they can
get overbought very quickly with a sharp move.
so they often fall even though the price is rising in the period
after the sharp move.
nevertheless 'momentum' is still positive .i.e above zero.
part of the problem is the length of the macd we use.
or any indicator for that matter which has a periodicity which is
shorter than the length of the price move.
they tend to work themselves back to neutral first before moving up again. well, the best indicators do.
however, I have taken a somewhat different view.
one of the problems with momentum indicators is that they can
get overbought very quickly with a sharp move.
so they often fall even though the price is rising in the period
after the sharp move.
nevertheless 'momentum' is still positive .i.e above zero.
part of the problem is the length of the macd we use.
or any indicator for that matter which has a periodicity which is
shorter than the length of the price move.
they tend to work themselves back to neutral first before moving up again. well, the best indicators do.
you see this is where knowing you wave count comes in handly..I am a bit lost to where we actually are. but agree with you about indicators when the marketslike this....they can start doing funny things after such a strong, straightish move. Thats why I move over to longer 60 min time frame when it's like this.
its that time of day again and I am probably in the
worst possible position.
It has broken my 1 day but has not yet decided whether
the retest is to be a success or failure.
The Dax has not yet broken down.
The dow has made what could well be a high .
still no gaps
the a/d is picking up
and macd is ready to reverse.
worst possible position.
It has broken my 1 day but has not yet decided whether
the retest is to be a success or failure.
The Dax has not yet broken down.
The dow has made what could well be a high .
still no gaps
the a/d is picking up
and macd is ready to reverse.
Im sure you know what to do...stick to your usual rule whatever that might be. Nasty day imo again...tightish range but it more the fact that it was ranging aroung the highs that made it tough. My charts finished on a mixed not again. Similarly in the US the 60 min chart saying uptrend strong but as soon as theres any price action to confirm this chart I think I will ahve to join it. Until then trend is up.
<img src='http://lc-d.sc8.finance.lycos.com:443/1069778881765?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:SPX.X&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=STOC&Param1=55&Param2=34&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0'>
<img src='http://lc-d.sc8.finance.lycos.com:443/1069778881765?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:SPX.X&Interval=15&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=STOC&Param1=55&Param2=34&Param3=&FontSize=10&BgColor=0.255.0&TBgColor=0.255.0'>
- Status
