Forex Day Trader's Thread

[cpngtw]

Hey do y'all know what the new capital gains tax rates will be under Obama?

What will it be?

 

[N Rothschild]

tbh i think its goodnight sweet heart for the euro. when u consider most eastern block european countrys will start defaulting on their euro demoninated debt..eurozone banks will get raped..germnay will be the first to exit the euro and the euro will go to 0..yeh baby!

 

[bbc1183]

i like the euro short but i wouldnt put it past the us to reopen those printing presses and turn them on full either. i am trading the euro short partly because i expect the us equity markets to move lower. i also have a small position long gold in case the euro short doesnt pay off the way i want.

 

[N Rothschild]

gold will fall to (in the long term)

 

[N Rothschild]

i like the euro short but i wouldnt put it past the us to reopen those printing presses and turn them on full either. i am trading the euro short partly because i expect the us equity markets to move lower. i also have a small position long gold in case the euro short doesnt pay off the way i want.

forget about printing presses, its such a naive and amateurish way to look at things.

 

[bbc1183]

just simple economics

 

[N Rothschild]

not really, the fed printing up some cash is only a small part of the picture in money creation. and that money will never hit the consumer so it doesn't matter. the world is gona be busy paying down (of defaulting on debt) for the next few years which will result in massive deflation across the board, massive usd strength, falling stocks commodities etc. when so much debt is created, there is only one way to service that debt and the intrest, more debt! you cut off the supply of credit and HGUE amounts of money will be leached from the system to service that debt and intrest. hence deflation. when you create new debt you only create the amount for that debt, not the intrest to be paid as well, so without the continued creation of new credit it isnt possible to pay back all the debt AND the intrest. seeing the entire world economy and every currency in the world is based on the creation of debt

thats simple economics my friend

 

[N Rothschild]

look at it this way.

say there is 1 trillion of money in supply. you decide to inflate the currencey and lend out say another 5 trillion in new debt. that 5 trillion has to be repaid at some point, along with the intrest oo say at 1-5%. this will drain all of the original money in the money supply and leave you worse off than before!..so unless you keep creating new debt to service old debt...the money will dry up! we have reached the end of an era for cheap credit and huge leverage. the world will now return to more reaslistic prices, levels of wealth, gdp etc..

 

[bbc1183]

i agree with you, just trying to point out that im trading the euro against the dollar here. the money theyve printed so far hasnt hit the consumer either and look where its pushed the dollar. my point is my small position in gold is just a hedge, in case there is any future inflationary policy implementation in the usd. like i said, i do agree, id just hate to see a situation where us equity markets went lower while the euro failed to fall as much.

 

[N Rothschild]

imo we are on the verge of never before seen usd strength

 

[Pippy5000]

We're never paying our debts.. no one ever pays us so why should we pays ours.. personally, I would like to see our government pay Japan for being a loyal ally and pay China nothing.. not one penny.. if the USD is hurt temporarily that's fine.. we'll get over that

 

[RidderTrade]

indeed there will be problems in the eurozone, eventually the euro will probably not survive , a short to 0.50 cent long term is indeed possible..

 

[N Rothschild]

if you want to take a classical view on things. depresions and rescesions are nothing more than a means to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich..just like the good old days. the current "credit crunch" has seen the biggest transfer of wealth from the poor in history, because they borrowed what they couldnt afford! money isnt destroyed it is mearly transfered (like energy)

 

[RidderTrade]

but the first target remains 1.12 euro/usd , ofcourse you have the stupid bounces in between to revive the coming oversold condition of euro, so a long term short to hold, is kind of difficult

 

[Pippy5000]

Poor people are a waste of good money.. I'm a big fan of Reaganomics.

 

[N Rothschild]

but the first target remains 1.12 euro/usd , ofcourse you have the stupid bounces in between to revive the coming oversold condition of euro, so a long term short to hold, is kind of difficult

just give it 6months a year or so with a huge short eur pos and wait for nations like hungary to start defaulting like crazy from being unable to meet there debt obligations due to their own crumbling currency. and you will be a rich man!

 

[RidderTrade]

for example you bounce to 1.25 from 1.12, then you re-enter, and the suckers will buy another 650pip, the only thing you can do at that moment to hedge as long as needed, yeah its a surviving battle.

 

[N Rothschild]

Poor people are a waste of good money.. I'm a big fan of Reaganomics.

Cant beat a bit of regan's imperial circle

 

[Pippy5000]

I'm standing and saluting the great man right now

 

[Pippy5000]

when did you start hedging Ridd?