Forex Day Trader's Thread

Pippy5000

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Nov 12, 2008
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#1
This thread is for live spot FX discussion as well as INTRADAY FX calls. Please do not discuss commodities or stocks at all, nor FX trades on time scales longer than 24 hours. Please do not make calls if you're using a demo account. Also, this thread is not to be used for posts about general trading theory, it is for those who actually trade rather than those who theorize about trading.

Please check out the last page of the thread to see what we're talking about today.
 
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Pippy5000

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#2
Lost nerve.. +55.. screwed myself to the tune of another +50

There's only so many times you can mutter "take the profit you idiot" before you do and then feel sick as you watch your trade mature into much larger profits.

Nonsense.. this price action is nonsensical. I'm not getting into this again.. Anyway, good luck when LSE opens limey brothers! I'll guess you guys will know if I made the right decision before I do as I sleep.

The big short will be on soon enough .. I just don't have the nerve to continue. The price action is completely sickening/primal, abdominal anger inspiring. 55 profit is good enough. I'd rather miss out on a mulitple thousand pipper than stay in this emotional hole any longer...

Look for a big short soon enough.. I'd check the daily US Dollar index charts for an obvious bullish signal for USD ;)

watch 85.5.. a break is worth 800 pips.. sustained time below will signal medium-term long Euros.. otherwise expect major retracement and expansion into the 90s.

There might be a WH announcement regarding the auto bailout "in a while" which could easily cause long Euros again or a monstrous, monstrous short .. keep the stops tight on long USD, but keep in mind that further Euro gains would be one of the most monmumental sustained moves of all time .. and the math doesn't actually support it.. Doesn't mean it won't happen but the math isn't there.

50, 100, 200 overbought is there. Profit-taking is there.. People have silly grins on their faces while they cash in knowing the bottomless pit of doom is on the horizon..

Please, please come a litle higher EUR/USD .. I will short you again and with more balls.
 
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Pippy5000

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#4
Oh I forgot to tell you to also watch for the Japanese intervening to weaken the JPY vs. the USD which will also strengthen the USD vs. the Euro. There's only so much the Japense will allow the USD to drop again the Yen.

believe me no one else will buy the Toyota Tundra ;)
 

Pippy5000

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Nov 12, 2008
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#5
Good Lord a Scottish-South African .. You must sound like an old lawnmower trying to start son..

It's a grrrrrreat day in Sooth Afrrrrrica :)
 
Apr 25, 2008
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#6
I'm a lazy scot, I put in the input box "Edinburgh, Scotland" and it gave me a south african flag. Geez.

I'm still waiting for the morning to make a move. Nice 55 pips you got though, I got a short from 1.4140 down to 14090 :D - I was planning on adding at 141 and ride it down till the morning but i decided against it.

I think i'll be bearish in january. Good luck mate, hopefully you catch the UK open if your awake for long enough :).

Wait a minute, why am I awake????
 

Pippy5000

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#7
Eat a piece of white bread and drink tons of water and a multi-vitamin.. You're still awake because you stayed awake past the fun drunk phase into the nasty feeling dried up phase.. Hit the hay with the prescribed medicine and don't worry about this boring 10 pip range EUR/USD is doing..
 

Pippy5000

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#8
I think i'll be bearish in january
Most definitely bearish on Dollars in 2009.. It just isn't the time yet.. I think most serious traders recognize this blip for what it is.. A correction, a retracement, wishful-thinking, short-term profit-taking opportunity.. Bright-eyed idealists are jumping up and down ..

The truth is that Euros are currently supported by thin air.. Euros are supported simply by the desire for Americans to make money in Europe in the short-term.. THERE'S NO POSITIVE NEWS FROM EUROPE TO WARRANT THIS.. let the US risk-takers get a little taste more and then watch them take the profits home to daddy.. Let them completely **** me off in the meantime by jacking the price up and down by 50 pips every 15 minutes..

Let us wait for the option ARM bubble to explode (look it up) .. The world is screwed in 2009 and that doesn't equal 1.418 Euros.. This isn't the Great Depression but it's not Disneyland either..
 

Pippy5000

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#9
Well.. with this ridiculous volatility you could go long or short on Euros and easily get stopped out on these random 90 pip moves.. I'm out altogether until this calms down.

All the experts seem downright angry today that their math isn't working in regards to the USD sellfest.

I'm concentrating on JPY for the rest of the week.
 

hwsteele

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May 18, 2004
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#12
So how are you doing now?
Did you ever get back into a short?
about 4200 was the big moves 50% retracement so I can see why you were looking for a short.
and about 4600 is the 62% retracement. Might look for about a 600 point retrace from around there.
 

Pippy5000

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#13
You were wrong, it happens.
Actually I was right in the long run old bean ;)

Did you ever get back into a short?
well howdy there Tex!

Yes, I shorted with 8 lots at 1.47 just like I said I would .. after being stopped out with 4 at 1.45 .. I took profit at 1.43 on the last trade from 1.47

All happened while I was asleep

I don't have any clue as to the direction from this point so I'm done for the week. We're currently at 1.425 and the possibility of a big stop loss going long or short is too extreme. Lots of investment banks and other whales are causing moves I've never seen before.
 
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hwsteele

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#14
Nice call!
As is obvious there is a reaction right(4200-4300 area) now, but when ever it's done my money is on a 300+ pip move back down.
 

Pippy5000

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Nov 12, 2008
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#15
After seeing today's price action I want nothing to do with EUR/USD .. Might as well spin the wheel and say "black" or "red" .. We're at the mercy of the big boys now and it's been irritating.

Euro started the day at 1.44 jumped to 1.47 and then down to 1.42 in just a few hours..

I tell you what though if you are willing to use a monstrous stop loss then you have a pretty good chance of making some huge profits as well. I might be tempted to short again with 1 lot at 1.45 with a stop at 1.483 and a t/p at 1.35 .. Until it comes up to 1.45 again I'll leave it alone..

I will short with 8 lots at 1.47 again no matter what.. A solid double or triple top at 1.47 and I might be tempted to use 16 lots for the short.

Euro is at 1.427-8 right now and I'm not feeling great about trying to squeeze anymore short juice out of this lemon just yet.. If I miss the big short down to 1.30 so be it..
 

Pippy5000

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#16
Actually here's something I just read from the guys at Reuters..

" Another custodian notes that they have had two solid days of huge real money Euro buying, and they"ve sold GBP, AUD, and USD the heaviest (in order) over the 24-hrs heading into today"s NY open. Over the past week real money have been huge EUR/USD buyers, and sold HUF, Kiwi, and USD in size (in respective order). A bank tech team we respect immensely say anything under a 1.4350 close after a spike reversal capped by the 200-day M/A at 1.4713 screams SELL. Spot last 1.4290. "
 
Nov 15, 2008
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#17
Euro/USD last two days moves is like a mad elephant who himself don't know what direction he heading. I am fullly amazed by such unpredictable movements. Lets see what happen next, likely to move down little more around 1.3700
 

Pippy5000

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#20
I ended up +$3,160 on that trade setup :)

I'm tempted to go long EUR/USD at 1.398 but the sheer magnitude of the Euro sell-off today during the last hour of the NY session makes me too nervous to do so.. In this thin trading environment there's an equal chance of a continuation of the selloff due to the close below 1.40 ..

I missed all of the action on EUR/USD except for 30 pips from 1.40 to 1.397 .. There's not supposed to be much support down here in the 1.30s but 1.397 has held pretty nicely for the time being.. As I said before you can't trust anything you see during the last week of the year.. My personal feeling that the EUR/USD tank had a lot to do with EUR/GBP profit taking combined with USD strength. Will the uprend continue now?? Don't know, I'm on the sidelines EUR/USD unless it comes down significantly in which case I'll put quite a few lots long..