ES EMINI Trading - The gap and others

aversano said:
Gladiator, how do I join your room?
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Its completely free, apart from an initial cost of $200 for your first three months and then after that every month an additional fee of $49 on a 12-month contract and subseqent $150 per month after the initial 12-month in a sepparate contract.

For this you'll recieve access to the website; chat room; forums; archives; videos; live trades and trade newsletter.

You can pay through paypal.

Cheers
 
robster970 said:
I can summarise my trading career pretty much as:

1. Wrote software system then realised that there was more to it than indicators
2. Threw all indicators away and then started to trade price only
3. After about 6 months of doing that, started to see how price reveals lots but then realised my problems lay within me. Started analysing my behaviour which is a feature of my landscape to this day.
4. Built a trading plan but took the plan too literally. Realised I still didn't know what was going on.
5. Read some stuff about market structure and how markets actually work, who the participants are, what they are doing, etc
6. Realised that in order to be successful I had to provide a 'service' to the market which then shaped my trading plan
7. Realised that events drive indices and then started to incorporate a fundamental/economic/political view into trading
8. Started to really incorporate price action and discretion in risk mgmt and trade execution (not trade selection) and turned from losing pts to making pts

Now I'm in a process of refinement and I can feel certain things that were concious decision making become more cognitive and intuitive. It's still early days for me, and like you this is a part time thing which consumes all my spare time.

I still have a long way to go....
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Curious, but what do you look for in fundamentals; a sentiment? a direction? Im on a slow economics learning curve at the moment:learning what makes currencies move...
Also, do you swing trade? Ever traded currencies, if not why, if so how was it?

:)
 
FXTrend240 said:
Curious, but what do you look for in fundamentals; a sentiment? a direction? Im on a slow economics learning curve at the moment:learning what makes currencies move...
Also, do you swing trade? Ever traded currencies, if not why, if so how was it?

:)
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Two things I'm looking to ascertain:

1) Has the fundamental view of the world changed to make the index under or overvalued in the eyes of the main mkt participants? (i.e. has their strong support or resistance moved or weakened?)

2) Can a short term news event be used to guage direction for the day from a speculative point of view?

As an example, I went into yesterdays session thinking that the index is overvalued but not hugely so. I have concluded this because the economic news coming out of the US and RoW was just not 'strong' enough to warrant the rise this week, also the absence of volume indicating it was minor participants driving price up, not the majors.

When the news about India then came the price went down quite sharply, I knew it was not serious news and that major participants will probably find support where I thought it would be. It turned out it was a bit lower at 1150 rather than 1155. Incidentally yesterdays fall was to do with options expiration and nothing to do with the Indian economy. Inflationary consequences are priced in IMO.

So it's not straight economics per se, but more how I think the market to react to economic information vs where I think the value traders see serious mispricing and come into the mkt.

With regards to FX, never traded them. Just don't do it for me. I trade breakouts/reversals and trends based upon key levels using only price and volume. The 200 MA on the weekly seems to have mystical powers IMO but that's it for me. I loosely refer to my trading as swing trading but know really it's not swings in their strictest sense.
 
errrm..are you saying that options expiration coincided with the exact moment of indian announcement?
 
No. I'm saying the main volatility on Friday was down to quarterly options expiration and had little to do with indian interest rate change. It's what I think. Like I said, inflationary consequences of recent fiscal policies are priced in I reckon and people know that interest rates will go up to deal with it. Also India isn't exactly the US is it and it's been a high growth economy for a number of years preceeding and running concurrently with the last 2 years of financial grief.

Like I said, no surprise.

Do you genuinely think that news event is what moved Friday so sharply or is it inconceivable to believe that the main holders of options where trying to push prices as close to their strike prices as possible?
 
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Hmmm, well on that note are you thinking that the US market has, or is yet to price in rising Chinese inflation?
 
Studog said:
Hmmm, well on that note are you thinking that the US market has, or is yet to price in rising Chinese inflation?
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It's yet to price it in. I think it's out to lunch on it at the moment because nobody can figure out whether chinese fiscal policy will get in under control. Personally I think when China goes bang, RoW will go bang as well. That's a statement of the obvious I think.

Also the US is the greatest consumer of cheap shiny sh1t, and the chinese are the greatest manufacturer of cheap shiny sh1t. It's in their mutual interests to keep the bubble moving along nicely.

47% of US bonds are held by the Chinese and they're sat on 3tr USD in reserves. It's not in their interest to trash the US economy.
 
aversano,robster970

Hi, G'Day, hola ...

You fellas seem to be trading the open on the ES using a gap method. Haven't seen you mention the gap of what? (yesterday's close against today's open?)

Also, price action during that portion of the day is often pretty rowdy. As in wild price swings, no apparent trend but 4 & 5 point price bars, and so on. Yet you don't mention those issues in any of your posts. ???

At any rate, I am also an ES guy and find anything along those lines worth a read.

Noticed mention of the phsycological side of trading. Seems as if I've observed that in myself and have just recently gained some ground in that area.

Also, coincidentally, trading price and volume seem to be winning out with fewer indicators.

Have to agree with you also on time & price being a bit difficult to ascertain what is being portrayed.

I've attached a 5 min chart from Friday 3/19 and the 2 trades I took. Price started running, volume was present, I hit 2 - 1 pt trades. I should also say, I only get to watch the market the first hour or so and the last hour or so.

Putting all those concepts together mentioned above seems to have improved my trading. Of course, now that I mention it, my results will probably tank...

Glad to see your inward retrospect seems to be the guiding principle and being able to react to it in a positive way shows the pursuit of a trader trying to learn and grow.

Can you put up a chart of a trade?

Regards,
 

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