ES Trading

new_trader

Legendary member
“Impossible to survive 3.5 years of Gold BEAR market for even Warren Buffet.”

"new_trader survived the impossible." :cool:

The gap mentioned in this post has been filled as expected. Some gaps take longer to fill than others and some may never get filled. There was an extremely significant development in yesterday’s trading session, something only a very experienced tape reader would understand.:cool:

272675



The Deranged Logic of Detractors (True Story)
The price of gold falls; the detractors write, “Ha ha, new_trader is losing money”
The price of gold rises; the detractors write, “new_trader is only trading demo”
Someone writes they lose money trading, the detractors write, “I can help you”
Someone writes they make money trading, the detractors write, “FUϹK you, prove it”


GC @ 1547.8
ES @ 3271.00


116,564
 

new_trader

Legendary member
Positives in your favor:
You have a burning desire to get good at trading, to be the best, to be head and shoulders above anybody at T2W, your church. Youstated clearly and unequivocally that you had invested all your money in Gold in 2013 and that if you were wrong, you would die an ignominious financial death (approx. worded). You scoffed "Gold is real money, it cannot go down, its going to kill all the suckers who claim it will crash" ...................... Then Gold preceeded to crash for YEARS, the 1st part in sheer near vertical decline.
Even Warren Buffet would not have survived. You lost everything, your entire nest egg. So it really does not matter what Gold does since or now. The BEAR market destroyed YOU and millions of your fellow Gold bugs.


What happens next is only a matter of time. :cool:

new_trader shreds the detractors' brain.


"new_trader's in your head now deadbroke fibo_trader, there's no escape, ever!"






GC @ 1552.2
ES @ 3281.25


116,678
 

new_trader

Legendary member
UPDATE: Although it's too early to say, it looks like the price of gold is going to consolidate around the price range the gap was formed. This would confirm the significant development I mentioned in this post.
  • A breakdown of the consolidation range should not extend too deep or last too long.
  • A breakout of the consolidation range, especially above the previous high, should be a significant move, mind the gaps!
  • It’s likely the breakdown/breakout will not happen until sometime around the next FOMC meeting -29 Jan 2020, especially if the consolidation continues until then.

272757



Gold is making or has already made ALL TIME HIGHS in many major fiat currencies, you need to ask if it makes sense to happen in every fiat currency. Gold to the moon, sometime soon?

272758



GC @ 1563.2
ES @ 3263.50



116,788
 

new_trader

Legendary member
The article below arrived in my inbox and it reminded me of THE STUPIDEST thing ever posted on Trade2win.:ROFLMAO:

Enjoy!

Calling all comedians - The gold market is so small it could fit in Warren Buffet’s teacup
  • Warren Buffet’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has a market cap that is a whopping 266 times bigger than the value of the gold registered for delivery at the Comex.
  • Warren Buffet could buy every ounce of registered gold at the Comex with 1.6% of his cash!


GC @ 1555.3
ES @ 3287.75



117,161
 

new_trader

Legendary member
Gold appears to have broken out of the consolidation range I mentioned in this post on Jan 11, 2020. The USD1600 level will take time to work through.


1582274412801.png



GC @ 1638.0
ES @ 3350.50


118,065
 

new_trader

Legendary member
The market has a dip and all the bears come out of the woodwork! The tape is telling me that this is just another correction in a market that is in the process of topping out, and I only ‘listen’ to what the tape tells me, everyone and everything else is irrelevant.

The coronavirus is not the reason for the market decline, it’s the excuse that will green-light Central Banks to do much more of what the market has been begging for - Lower interest rates and more QE. There is no way, no how, no why that Donald Trump wants to go down in history as a one-term president, he will literally crack skulls at the US FED if he don’t get more of what he demands - lower interest rates and QE∞

IMO: The market will make new highs before the next US election.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH


GC @ 1587.3
ES @ 2988.00


118,309
 

new_trader

Legendary member
If I was to ignore all the news about the current bogeyman and just focus on what the tape is telling me, I would say the ES is going to find support in the low 2200’s (+/- 150). I am always prepared to be wrong and learn something new in the process, however it was my reading of the tape that got me into stocks near the 2009 lows and kept me in stocks throughout the US debt downgrade, GREXIT, BREXIT, The trade ‘war’, that bogeyman, this bogeyman…etc…etc…

My forecast is this:

The next market rally will take stocks to a new nominal high and that will be the final high and end of this bull market. I can’t say exactly when that will happen, but my guess is that Donald Trump will do ‘whatever it takes’ to try and win the next election. He has claimed ownership of the stock market rally since his election, so the final rally could happen later this year.

Gold is acting like it did during the last crisis but with one major difference - DXY is over 100 and gold closed above USD1500. In other words, the gold price has remained strong despite the apparent strength is the USD.

The only reason there are unprecedented moves in the markets is because there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies in place since the 2008 financial crisis. All the people who argued with me in this forum over the years about fiat money and Central Bankers…THIS IS YOUR FINAL WAKE UP CALL. If you don’t ‘get it’ now, YOU NEVER WILL.

"It makes NO DIFFERENCE what the pin is that bursts the bubble. It was Governments & Central Bankers that created the bubble in the first place."

Here are some reminders:
  1. What is money? Where does our money come from?
  2. Keynes Vs. Hayek
  3. Jun 9, 2014 - Financial Crisis forecast
  4. Nov 30, 2014 - We're headed for a great big worldwide recession!
  5. Mar 21, 2015 - Central Bankers make things worse



GC @ 1501.1
ES @ 2266.50



118,887
 

new_trader

Legendary member
Gold closed above USD1700... a very bullish sign. No sign of any wars either!

1586238595109.png




  • Did new_trader get shaken out of his entire gold position in the 2013-2016 bear market?
  • Did new_trader take this opportunity to sell his entire gold position above USD1700?
  • Is new_trader still holding his entire gold position?

Stay tuned to new_trader’s journal...





GC @ 1718.7
ES @ 2658.25



119,451
 

new_trader

Legendary member
Gold closed 2020 Q2 above USD1800.... That's a whole new handle and gold’s first close above USD1800 since September 2011! :cool:

1593584161848.png


  • Did new_trader get shaken out of his entire gold position in the 2013-2016 bear market?
  • Did new_trader take this opportunity to sell his entire gold position above USD1800?
  • Is new_trader still holding his entire gold position?

Stay tuned to new_trader’s journal...


GC @ 1802.5
ES @ 3073.75





121,167
 

new_trader

Legendary member
What happens next is only a matter of time. :cool:
new_trader shreds the detractors' brain.
"new_trader's in your head now deadbroke fibo_trader, there's no escape, ever!"
116,678


Breaking: Gold hits a new record high

1595827299740.png
  • Did new_trader get shaken out of his entire gold position in the 2013-2016 bear market?
  • Did new_trader take this opportunity to sell his entire gold position above USD1900?
  • Is new_trader still holding his entire gold position?

Stay tuned to new_trader’s journal...



GC @ 1928.7
ES @ 3216.50
 

new_trader

Legendary member
Re: Gold

The time for silly talk, pretty coloured lines and magic round numbers is over. I'm going to start buying physical gold next week. I'll begin with 1 ounce and will double down with every $US100 price drop. $100/ounce is neither here nor there when looking at the big picture.

The simple case for gold: Deflation is the bogeyman that Central Planners all around the world use to justify their inflationary policies. The mainstream Anal-ists are telling us that the price of gold is falling because there is no inflation, which is utter B.S. They refer to inflation as being the Government fudged CPI figures that only a dimwit would believe. But US Treasuries don't lie...unless it is the Central Planners doing the buying with money created out of thin air. The U.S FED is in a dilemma and gold will ultimately reveal the truth.

All the Technical Anal-ists are pointing to US$1000 being the target price for gold because it is a sexy round number, but none of them can explain why $2000 wasn't sexy enough in 2011...go figure...:rolleyes:

While I don't doubt that $1000 can be hit, or $900 or even $800...I'm not trying to pick the bottom with gold. I am buying as much as I can afford before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond. I have a goal of owning a certain number of ounces and I am nowhere near that goal because the price took off in 2011.

Gold is going to be my "Jesse Livermore" trade...I will either go bankrupt or make a killing...although I'm not using any margin, I'm buying outright...


As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!

"before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond."

I wrote the above quote on Jun 29, 2013 and today:
Gold breaks above
USD2000
1596180598018.png


new_trader was stackin' while the detractors were laffin'
  • Did new_trader get shaken out of his entire gold position in the 2013-2016 bear market?
  • Did new_trader take this opportunity to sell his entire gold position above USD2000?
  • Is new_trader still holding his entire gold position?

Stay tuned to new_trader’s journal...


GC @ 1992.6
ES @ 3257.75





 

new_trader

Legendary member
What happens next is only a matter of time. :cool:
new_trader shreds the detractors' brain.
"new_trader's in your head now deadbroke fibo_trader, there's no escape, ever!"

Spot Gold Breaks Through $2,000 With Haven Seekers Piling In


new_trader was stackin' while the detractors were laffin'


GC @ 2022.0
ES @ 3291.75
 

new_trader

Legendary member
I had a few ounces of gold before I started seriously stacking from 2013 when I believed the price of gold was nearing a bottom, and the FUNDAMENTALS for gold were bullish. I had accumulated 203 oz by December 2018 when the FUNDAMENTALS for gold informed me that the price of gold was going to start rising and the days of ‘cheap’ gold were probably over for at least a couple of decades.

Approx 5 years later I reached that goal and made my last purchase of physical gold in December 2018. I am now Long 203oz physical gold, owned outright in safe storage. I am still adding to my physical silver position [currently 2020oz]. In addition to this I own derivatives and stocks related to gold. I will only add to my physical gold position if it dips below $US1300
GC @ 1401.2
ES @ 2991.75

I wrote this post when the price of gold was USD1401.2 oz. Gold closed this week at USD2046.1 oz- a gain of USD644.9/oz.

I am long 203 oz of gold which means I have made USD130,914 in 1 year, give or take.

This equates to USD18,702 every year or USD1558 every single month for the last 7 years in row.

There are people in this forum who say that I don’t understand fundamentals.

I say to those people; has your strategy made over USD1558 every single month for more than 7 years in a row?

Take my advice and ignore anyone who says they 'trade' fundamentals because they don’t know what they are talking about.

If you want to make serious money:

YOU DON’T TRADE FUNDAMENTALS
YOU STACK THEM.





GC @ 2046.1
ES @ 3347.25
 

new_trader

Legendary member
I’m sure there will be some people who completely miss the point of my post above by focusing on the total return in percent and completely overlook the fact that I did NOT use leverage. Re-calculate the above figures using the same leverage applicable in FX trading. [After a quick search I find that a few brokers quote 30:1 leverage, so unless I have miscalculated, with that kind of leverage my total return would be ~ 1200%]

Could those who were trading gold price fluctuations have made more that this? Absolutely! Does this mean they were trading the fundamentals of gold? No.

Just to ‘prove’ my point, I will provide a YouTube clip of a completely random stranger I have never met to support my argument. Pay particular attention to what he says about the USD from around 20 seconds in…replay that part over and over until it sinks in. Watch the entire video, what he says about ZOMBIE traders [at about: 2min 55] is 100% correct.

 

new_trader

Legendary member
Positives in your favor:
You have a burning desire to get good at trading, to be the best, to be head and shoulders above anybody at T2W, your church. Youstated clearly and unequivocally that you had invested all your money in Gold in 2013 and that if you were wrong, you would die an ignominious financial death (approx. worded). You scoffed "Gold is real money, it cannot go down, its going to kill all the suckers who claim it will crash" ...................... Then Gold preceeded to crash for YEARS, the 1st part in sheer near vertical decline. Even Warren Buffet would not have survived. You lost everything, your entire nest egg. So it really does not matter what Gold does since or now. The BEAR market destroyed YOU and millions of your fellow Gold bugs.

1597730266463.png


The big news for gold bugs is that Warren Buffett, a long time critic of gold and gold bugs, has invested in a gold mining company...unfortunately for his investors, he didn't follow his own advice and be greedy when others are fearful....others except new_trader :cool:

1597730948357.png



1597731046085.png




GC @ 2004.1
ES @ 3378.75
 

new_trader

Legendary member
The market has a dip and all the bears come out of the woodwork! The tape is telling me that this is just another correction in a market that is in the process of topping out, and I only ‘listen’ to what the tape tells me, everyone and everything else is irrelevant.
The coronavirus is not the reason for the market decline, it’s the excuse that will green-light Central Banks to do much more of what the market has been begging for - Lower interest rates and more QE. There is no way, no how, no why that Donald Trump wants to go down in history as a one-term president, he will literally crack skulls at the US FED if he don’t get more of what he demands - lower interest rates and QE∞

IMO: The market will make new highs before the next US election.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH


GC @ 1587.3
ES @ 2988.00118,309

On Feb 29, 2020
@new_trader posted: IMO: The market will make new highs before the next US election.

AUGUST 19, 2020 / 12:07 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs as Apple tops $2 trillion in market value

The Bears
are gettin'
Rekt!
:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:



GC @ 1968.5
ES @ 3392.50


 

new_trader

Legendary member
If I was to ignore all the news about the current bogeyman and just focus on what the tape is telling me, I would say the ES is going to find support in the low 2200’s (+/- 150). I am always prepared to be wrong and learn something new in the process, however it was my reading of the tape that got me into stocks near the 2009 lows and kept me in stocks throughout the US debt downgrade, GREXIT, BREXIT, The trade ‘war’, that bogeyman, this bogeyman…etc…etc…

My forecast is this:

The next market rally will take stocks to a new nominal high and that will be the final high and end of this bull market. I can’t say exactly when that will happen, but my guess is that Donald Trump will do ‘whatever it takes’ to try and win the next election. He has claimed ownership of the stock market rally since his election, so the final rally could happen later this year.

Gold is acting like it did during the last crisis but with one major difference - DXY is over 100 and gold closed above USD1500. In other words, the gold price has remained strong despite the apparent strength is the USD.

The only reason there are unprecedented moves in the markets is because there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies in place since the 2008 financial crisis. All the people who argued with me in this forum over the years about fiat money and Central Bankers…THIS IS YOUR FINAL WAKE UP CALL. If you don’t ‘get it’ now, YOU NEVER WILL.

"It makes NO DIFFERENCE what the pin is that bursts the bubble. It was Governments & Central Bankers that created the bubble in the first place."

Here are some reminders:
  1. What is money? Where does our money come from?
  2. Keynes Vs. Hayek
  3. Jun 9, 2014 - Financial Crisis forecast
  4. Nov 30, 2014 - We're headed for a great big worldwide recession!
  5. Mar 21, 2015 - Central Bankers make things worse

GC @ 1501.1
ES @ 2266.50
118,887

I wrote the post on Mar 21, 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 stock market panic when THE BEARS were saying it was the end of the world :ROFLMAO:. The chart below shows just how accurate my call was:cool:. I have not altered my original forecast - it is the beginning of the end of this bull market in stocks (ex gold).

1599027556577.png


What I think will happen next: Unless The Tape informs me otherwise, the stock market will rally at least another 10-20% from here, and then crash, big time (50 - 60%). But, it will be crashing from such a high level that the low will be around the low of the COVID-19 panic from earlier this year, probably lower. That does not matter, it is the percentage drop that everyone will be focusing on. Newbies gonna get REKT!


GC @ 1970.7
ES @ 3543.25
 
 
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