attempting ES futures

[piggybridges]

Im currently trying to learn to trade ES futures.

In the past I think maybe i've been looking at too many instruments and timeframes at the same time, as well as other things, and so have decided to concentrate on just the ES for a little while.

I've done lots of reading and studying and have been interested in daytrading for quite a while, although I know that there's a 1 in a million chance that ill actually be able to make any real money at it and make a living from it.

I've done OK paper trading in the past, and am trying to now trade live, only trading 1 contract so not too much financial damage can be done. Funded an account with mirus futures: - See if I can make 8k last longer than 2 weeks which is what it took my mate to lose all his!

I've only had this account for a little while. Yesterday I made 9 ES points, and the say before I lost about the same! Im pretty much break-even on the account, so now seems like a good time to start a journal.

Im gonna record my progress, good or bad , in this thread.

 

[Phantom666]

Good luck. Liquidity is awesome with ES so if you can devise a simple, reliable approach you have a good shot at being able to do what you do and scale up. It is VERY feasible to make a lot of money trading ES. All you have to do is make a good plan and stick to it.

 

[piggybridges]

Good luck. Liquidity is awesome with ES so if you can devise a simple, reliable approach you have a good shot at being able to do what you do and scale up. It is VERY feasible to make a lot of money trading ES. All you have to do is make a good plan and stick to it.

Cheers,
Although at the moment im only concerned with not losing everday like most of the people who I know who have given futures trading a go have done, as opposed to potential scalability.

Lots of people say that successful trading is 90% psychological and 10% methodological, and that as long as you are disciplined etc then you can make money.

I just dont think that's the case (although im wiling to be proved wrong).

I think it's pretty much all about method. Im very good at taking stops, disciplined in making sure that my entries meet my criteria, dont trade huge relative to my account etc etc, but all of that hasn't really gotten me far in the past. Just slows down how quickly you blow the account, I suppose!

I've spent hundreds and hundreds of hours reading various trading sites and books etc etc, but I am always left feeling that there is something out there that successful traders are using, that not many of us know about. When someone discovers this secret, they guard it with their lives, never to be discussed with 'outsiders'! lol. Maybe its all in my head, but it might explain why so many fail.

I occasionally trade 'with' someone who i met online on skype. He posts his trades live, and he is quite awesome! He trades quite big size and averages about 8 ES points per day from what i've seen. Staggering. Although he hean't really given any details as to how he does it, despite my attempts. I know that he uses some TA, but im sure he uses 'something' else, too.

I'll post my results for today later when i've finished. Hopefully wont have done too much damage!

 

[piggybridges]

ouch. Tough tough day. This account might not last as long as my mates!

 

[piggybridges]

Made some back there on that drop.
Not down as much as I was earlier now, thankfully.
Down about 250USD - was down nearly 1k earlier! every trade seemed to stop me out

i'll post another statement at EOD

 

[Phantom666]

Dude! 9 trades today on ES? I've taken one trade and I watch 4 things.

Over-trading?

 

[piggybridges]

-$215.88

Was down lots lots more earlier in the day, so quite pleased with that, really! lol

 

[TASK]

Good luck piggy, I too am learning about the ES and currently paper trading.

 

[piggybridges]

Good luck piggy, I too am learning about the ES and currently paper trading.

Cheers! I certainly need it!

At the moment the market appears to be gunning for my stops on pretty much every trade, no matter where i place them! lol

If I blow this account i'll be tempted to save some more money and then try again using random entry like a trader here called 'the hare' apparently does.

statement to follow later.

 

[piggybridges]

-$156

First trade was a good winner and I was up by around $400. Then pretty much every trade stopped me out, and then a few winners at the end of the day.

 

[piggybridges]

-$57.94

Not had a winning day yet in this journal, lol.

Doubt i'll trade anymore today as I wanna watch the football, but if I do I'll upload another statement later on.

 

[Trader 1]

You`ve got quiet a few trades per day . How do you identify potential trades ?

Good luck

 

[piggybridges]

You`ve got quiet a few trades per day . How do you identify potential trades ?

Good luck

At the moment im just using price action concepts, patterns and support/resistance on a 5min chart and also monitoring the longer term charts. Done OK in demo for a few months, but maybe it was just luck...?....I guess one never knows, really.

I've got lots of other ideas that I want to try out, so i'll give it another week or so, and IF I have any money left in this account i'll move on to another concept.
I think a few weeks is enough time to have some statistical significance when one is daytrading making a number of trades per day to access whether what I am using has a hope in hell, or not.

I often wonder if anything available to us retail traders actually 'works'. I know (in person) a number of smart people who have lost lots and lots of money attempting day trading. Sometimes I think that people online who claim to be successful daytraders are actually flat out lying either to improve their online persona or maybe looking for customers for something they are selling - I certainly hope that im wrong, though!

 

[timsk]

Hi pb,
I have a couple of suggestions for you to consider. In my experience, the ES is a very unforgiving instrument and it doesn't give you much room for manoeuvre. By that I mean it pretty well constantly flickers up and down 2-3 ticks at any given time. By contrast, the YM moves more cleanly as it trades 2.5 ticks for every 1 tick of the ES. Therefore. if you get your timing right, your trade can be 'on side' to the tune of 5-8 ticks with a stop in place at break even - so that if it snaps back (very likely) you'll at least get out without a loss. Alternatively, if the moves don't have much (any) follow through - you can take your 5 tick profit. It's much smoother and cleaner than the ES and, in this regard, it's more forgiving. If this doesn't make much sense to you - put up a chart of the YM next to the ES and contrast and compare the two. You should quickly see what I mean.

You mentioned 'secrets' that only the select few cognoscenti know about. It's possible I suppose - but not very likely. That said, I think most traders have tools and techniques they wouldn't be without, which other traders may or may not find useful. So, not a secret as such - but definitely a key component of their edge - assuming they have one. For me, it's $TICK. I simply couldn't (and wouldn't) trade without it. Study the relationship between futures and equities and note which is strongest at any given time. In the main, the futures lead equities. However, neither will go very far without the other. If you can interpret the tug-o'-war between them and spot when they are 'in sync' - then trading in the right direction will not be too much of a problem. Then it's a question of timing your entries with an appropriate stop which is a tougher gig. On that front, I'd recommend you look at non-time based charts: tick, constant volume, Point & Figure and Renko etc. My trading moved on leaps and bounds when I made the transition.
Tim.

 

[pboyles]

Sometimes I think that people online who claim to be successful daytraders are actually flat out lying either to improve their online persona or maybe looking for customers for something they are selling - I certainly hope that im wrong, though!

I would say you are 100% correct.

 

[piggybridges]

Hi pb,
I have a couple of suggestions for you to consider. In my experience, the ES is a very unforgiving instrument and it doesn't give you much room for manoeuvre. By that I mean it pretty well constantly flickers up and down 2-3 ticks at any given time. By contrast, the YM moves more cleanly as it trades 2.5 ticks for every 1 tick of the ES. Therefore. if you get your timing right, your trade can be 'on side' to the tune of 5-8 ticks with a stop in place at break even - so that if it snaps back (very likely) you'll at least get out without a loss. Alternatively, if the moves don't have much (any) follow through - you can take your 5 tick profit. It's much smoother and cleaner than the ES and, in this regard, it's more forgiving. If this doesn't make much sense to you - put up a chart of the YM next to the ES and contrast and compare the two. You should quickly see what I mean.

You mentioned 'secrets' that only the select few cognoscenti know about. It's possible I suppose - but not very likely. That said, I think most traders have tools and techniques they wouldn't be without, which other traders may or may not find useful. So, not a secret as such - but definitely a key component of their edge - assuming they have one. For me, it's $TICK. I simply couldn't (and wouldn't) trade without it. Study the relationship between futures and equities and note which is strongest at any given time. In the main, the futures lead equities. However, neither will go very far without the other. If you can interpret the tug-o'-war between them and spot when they are 'in sync' - then trading in the right direction will not be too much of a problem. Then it's a question of timing your entries with an appropriate stop which is a tougher gig. On that front, I'd recommend you look at non-time based charts: tick, constant volume, Point & Figure and Renko etc. My trading moved on leaps and bounds when I made the transition.
Tim.

Cheers Tim.
All things to think about, and some of which I had already been contemplating, in fact.
In particular investigating the TICK and possibly looking at the YM.
I've played around with constant volume charts and tick charts with not much luck, but may re-visit them in the future.
In my experience, moving the stop to BE seems to just keep me losing out on potential gains. When I was demo trading it would always give me 2-3 ES points profit, and then stop me at BE, and then go even further in the anticipated direction.

I've also been thinking alot about risk:reward, stops, targets etc.
Of my 40 odd trades made so far, about 30 of them have offered me anywhere from 1-3 points profit before being stopped. It's tempting me to trade with a negative risk:reward ratio based on having a high hit rate, but im just not sure that the idea sits comfortably with me. Just a few wrong trades would eat up so many of my points gained.

I've still got lots of little things that I want to try.

I shall probably be implementing some new concepts/ideas with the ES that id already been contemplating next week.

I would say you are 100% correct.

Concerning

 

[timsk]

Hi pb - more thoughts on your thoughts . . .

In my experience, moving the stop to BE seems to just keep me losing out on potential gains. When I was demo trading it would always give me 2-3 ES points profit, and then stop me at BE, and then go even further in the anticipated direction.

With the ES then yes, I agree with you completely. Less so with the YM. If you trade 2 contracts which, at $5.00 a pop is still $2.00 less than a single ES contract, you have the option of closing the whole trade at +5 to +8 (for an equivalent 2-3 tick move in the ES), or closing one contract and letting the other run and moving your stop to b/e etc. The point is that you have options in the way that you don't have when trading the ES! Admitedly, this says more about me and my skills (or lack of them) than it does about the ES, nonetheless, I find the YM much easier to trade for quick gains. Have a look at it and try your methodology on demo. My money is that your bottom line will be much healthier at the end of the day, even allowing for the (relative) increased cost in commissions.

I've also been thinking alot about risk:reward, stops, targets etc.
Of my 40 odd trades made so far, about 30 of them have offered me anywhere from 1-3 points profit before being stopped. It's tempting me to trade with a negative risk:reward ratio based on having a high hit rate, but im just not sure that the idea sits comfortably with me. Just a few wrong trades would eat up so many of my points gained.

Again, this is easier to cope with trading the YM, IMO. If you trade a P&F 3x1 chart, your stops could be as little as 4 ticks on the basis that if price moves against you enough to register a 3 box reversal - then the trade is probably a dud and it's best to exit. If you're not familiar with P&F charts - there's loads about them on the interweb and a handful of excellent articles right here on T2W - starting with this one:
Point and Figure Charting: Part 1 - The Basics
Tim.

 

[piggybridges]

I have to go out now to drink beer, but a smallish winning day today.
Market kind of behaved for once.

+$180 ish

 

[piggybridges]

+$180.70

Winning day at last, but nothing to get excited about.
I actually did change to a slightly new method today, but it's likely just coincidence.
Cant lose every single day no matter how bad you are, and a winning day had to happen eventually.

On to tomorrow....

 

[piggybridges]

+$97.74