Dow Intraday Charts 17 May - 21 May

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Maybe not.. seems to be a clearer defined down channel now.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Sideways day of not a lot..... :(
OK I suppose if you gambled short over the weekend....
 

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tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Very likely that yesterdays erratic action was a low-level bull flag in the making; as shown on the 5min chart, and the futs are up this morning in the hope of a breakout.......

Nice PD developing on the 60min chart over 7 days seems to confirm that maybe we have a broad enough bottom to build on after the recent declines......

You know the old traders saying "the bigger the fall, the broader the bottom"...........! ;)

(but don't casually mention rolling bottoms as it has a strange effect on CM....!?! :LOL: )
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
(but don't casually mention rolling bottoms as it has a strange effect on CM....!?! :LOL: )[/QUOTE]

Hahahaha... but it's usually rolling tops... :cheesy:
 

melsmail

Junior member
24 0
The N/D that ends 15.46 ish is that a signal to close longs or open shorts. I am not sure the trend is up but it seems to be locked around the 9960/70 area. Any ideas?.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
The ND is normally only a signal to close a long. It's rarely a signal to go short as well ( flip trade) . Patience is required to find ( if it happens) a short entry. It is often the loss of 100MA with a pullback. Right now , that's about 9950 ish. To take another long, we need a break of 9980, and then the ceiling is likely to be a rocky 10K....
 

melsmail

Junior member
24 0
Cheers CM
One more question if I may. Do you use risk/reward ratio. I try to use a minimum of 2 to 1 but not always possible and maybe I attatch to much importance to trying?. See what you mean about pull backs even though RSI was oversold at 18.00 just after the Dow touched the MA. A good entry level with little risk if I have understood what you wrote earlier ?
 
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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Who knows what the reward/risk ratio might be.... But there are times when it is more prudent to wait... That possible long entry on 9980 break with 10k as tops would have been a big gamble. Not a risk as such, but little chance of it flying through 10K. As you can see, it made 9987. So it would have made more sense to wait and see if 10K went. And even then I'd want to wait for a pullback for confirmation. If you must take gambles ( and we all do for one reason or another from time to time) take a small stake.... I much prefer to take a trade and manage it, calculating targets and moving with the flow, rather than trying to analyse what the reward /risk might be at a particular point in time. Right now the market is intent on gapping ( a bit ) and going sideways so trading is hard and risky ( less so for direct access).
It is clear that the most common moves seem to be between the "magic numbers" 0/32/64/0 and from those, one can get excellent R/R entries. Triangles and flags offer similar opportunities. I would say it is far more important to squeeze the maximum out of a winning trade (and I've shown you all countless times how to do that ) and to cut your losers as soon as it hits you that it is a loser- and that I can't show you how to do. You must have realised that to take the 9980 break, the lose position is after it fails to make 10K i.e. heading back to 9980 and below. Those that wait and see if it tries for 10K again are living very dangerously indeed.They tend to wait, and wait a bit more, and more still and then find they can't close the trade because the loss is too big to take. Then they look for a bottom and a turn around, where they can add to their loser......
Does that sound familiar to anyone?
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Nice touch on yesterday's revised resistance line. Classic flag breakout where the support fails to touch, so tomorrow we should see the 10K break....famous last words, maybe.:(
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Two choices of ND to get out.... within five points of each other.
 

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axthree

Active member
185 0
ChartMan said:
see if it tries for 10K again are living very dangerously indeed.They tend to wait, and wait a bit more, and more still and then find they can't close the trade because the loss is too big to take. Then they look for a bottom and a turn around, where they can add to their loser......
Does that sound familiar to anyone?

Only too familliar I'm afraid :eek:
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Yet again sentiment has done a 'handbrake turn' and the futs are up around 10045 this morning - if the loosely formed 'W' bottom delivers its target, 10300 ish could be in the sights.....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
No ND that I can see....
And we got the 10K break..... and promptly lost it again, eventually. Still, I'll stick my neck out again and say we're going back up tomorrow. RSI is well into O/S at 20 and the price sitting right on support pullback- RS Switch.
 

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