Dow Intraday charts 01/Mar - 05/Mar

[ChartMan]

I think you have to look at that vol as a huge buying opportunity off the bottom. Discount the down spike, and review the 10 min charts as if the spike wasn't there....
Take a cue from yesterday's OS levels on RSI- 40 ish.
Current target 605...
ES low to low vol div

 

[jsd]

1474 important to hold for ndx otherwise new lows very good probabilty

jd

 

[ChartMan]

Long at 80, half stake

 

[ChartMan]

err make that mis-stake

 

[anmolway]

OUt at 2peak div at 562, thanks CM for confirming the es vol dive at the top.

 

[jsd]

closed short 74, ndx, maybe look for long on strength around 74 could be a good old ding dong day yet

jd.

 

[ChartMan]

cool , Anmo

 

[anmolway]

CM, over last few weeks es has been trading much bigger swings than the dow is this normally the case, if so might be an idea to trade the es/spx especially when using rsi divegence for entry ans exit

Though the range seems larger compared to the ym, it tends have less spiky movement. I mean to say es suport/resistance seems to be more defined than the ym.

Maybe OES can add since I think he also trades the ym.

Thanks

 

[ChartMan]

Yes, YM is very spikey. Yes you could trade ES..... but don't lose sight of the Dow for TA... I find the 10x stake a bit nervy - purely psycological

 

[anmolway]

Thanks as always CM

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Anmol

Have tried trading ES but prefer YM one reason it looks less spikey is that it moves in .25 steps i.e. 2.5 YM points which tends to iron out the bumps you can see in YM, as an alternative to YM I prefer NQ, if thereis no movement in the Dow the S&P tends to follow suit, whereas the Nas 100 is a little more independent, also Vol div works a treat

 

[anmolway]

Cheers OES, what TA do you use with NQ. ie, does rsi work well with that, 100 MA,etc

Thanks

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Anmol

RSI should work with NQ along with 100 EMA, I only trade instruments where I can use the same TA so if you have a system that will find points on the Dow the probability is that it will find you points on NQ.

Personally I trade off MACD/S&R/Divergance ( vol & price )

 

[anmolway]

Thanks again OES, I will pay attention to the NQ vol div from now on, in conjunction with es vol.

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Wouldn't use NQ vol to call tops/bottoms on Dow/SP stick with using it just for Nas100

 

[bgold]

What do you all make of these patterns?

On the 1min I see that the DOW has essentially moved horizontally within a 40pt range (10560-600), other than the opening spike down and up.

On the 10min, again excl todays' spikes, do I see a triangle?

Is the DOW looking for and finding support for next challenge of top end of the channel at 10700? Or could current pattern on 1min consolidation from the decline from todays' highs with another leg down to be expected?

 

[ChartMan]

1 min triangle to 620... and yes, BG on the 10 min too..

 

[anmolway]

Just looking back the 1min cci also gave a good 2 peak div at the top. As CM mentioned before that cci rarely works but lately whenever it has given a 2 peak div with rsi it has pulled it off.

In real time the div wasn't obvious since the opening produced a -900 level which skewed it all up.

 

[tradesmart]

Good Trading Chaps – if that first 125 point move up in 70mins was a ‘fake’ it certainly fooled me! So much so that I only got in on the second half of it when it bounced off the 100ma…! But at least I got in on most of the subsequent move down (at least we had ND/PD as entry/exit signals..!) and am now flat (but happy…. :cheesy: )

With all the conflicting pressures at work as a result of this NFPR data (interest rate hikes deferred, but consumer confidence undermined) I wouldn’t like to call the close, but suspect that my Dow Comp entry will be on the wrong side of the fence…..

Wellshot (from earlier) – I certainly don’t have daily points targets, I can imagine that might create ‘pressure’ to take dodgy trades in hope of reaching the target…..I just take what I can based on the signals of the day – I do try to anticipate ‘trending’ and ‘sideways’ days though, and trade accordingly.

The only ‘shifts’ that I relate to are the apparent daily phases of US trading ie:- the morning move / the lunchtime lull / then the afternoon move, as a general guide….

Most days, the best moves are occurring at the first and last 2hrs imho…….

Good Luck

 

[ChartMan]

I agree about daily targets.... can force you to make bad moves.... just closed for a few, target 620 not hit. Doesn't hurt to have a figure in mind , though, esp. if it is your living and you need to make x£ a week to pay the bills