Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

BEAR market psychology:

its only the early stages of the BEAR and already the psychology is pouring in to Fibo. Associates from the past and contacts have been stating to me that the "BEAR is providing clear evidence of who is or is not a friend of substance" - most appear to have cut their list of friends down by 95-98% due to failure to help, treason and/or etc.,

Sounds like my situation at T2W except that in my case its a staggering 100% no friends. Unlike my associates who were complaining however, I am proud of my stat - my standards are high. And so it remains at 100% for the entire duration at T2W. This will not change. Best part is I did not need a BEAR market to determine this. It came before the recent CRASH got underway.

From the BEAR market wisdom archives of Fibo - the learning in a BEAR market is a billion times greater than any Phd.

Back to work

Market psychology is a special forte of Fibo. but dig this. It applies to all aspects of Fibo's life - all aspects. For example the 2016 US presidential elections. But financial marekts is where its most valuable in monetary terms of course

 

[fibo_trader]

CROWD SENTIMENT

So many ways to measure this. There's DSI, Univ. Mich, Newsletters sentiment, Funds cash on sidelines, etc., etc., and then there is the Vix (my fav).

ET is an excellent place to gauge crowd sentiment. From now on at every major market turn I will read the posts of the 25 opinion leaders at ET and voila in an instant I know where the ET crowd is going. Very useful. Love it. One of the best learning experiences in the stock market, better than any book. Crowd sentiment = gift from God.

Applying crowd sentiment to Donald Trump election, lesson 2 compilation from deep deep deep in my archives which will from now on be used to teach people how important the subject of SENTIMENT is to partner with TA.

Formula: heavy one-sided-crowd-SENTIMENT + TA = perfect timing tool for tops/bottoms.

67k was my nett win on Donald Trump winning. Nobody I knew was betting on the Don. Nobody. Nobody. And then towards the end when the Media stuff was pouring in about how celebrations were already underway for the Hillary Clinton win, there was a moment of loss for me when I thought, "my technique has failed me" I was miserable. Because I have rarely seen anything so one-sided. Hate for Trump was so prevalent everywhere it was staggering. From a contrarian's point of view I had to go that way, had to, was compelled to.

But the cost of being wrong in being a contrarian? Bloody hell, the pressure can maim and kill. But I held tight and firm just like I did with my SPY holdings even though I was taking big shots to the stomach.

This is the type of shite I heard all thru' the election period that tested my resolve.

Contrarianism = sheer test of a fella's inner strength

For historians only ........................


Fibo was spot on about his contrarian stance in the US 2016 presidential election. See quote in detail.

Must see this first becaue next is the greatest call on Earth, the USDMXN .................. of spectacular importance to me becasue I love Mexico and have spent big big time there all over the place and the Mexican Peso figures very strongly as does the thai Baht in my investments in both countries.



The video is her again - stunning stunning stunning pay-shune demonstatrated by Fibo when all felt lost for donald.

 

[fibo_trader]

CROWD SENTIMENT: = key to success in trading, the absolute key, beats all other avenues.

Now throw in TA

= the combo from Paradise = Fibo's combo.

How proud is Fibo that he had the brass balls to withstand the torrents of people's hatred for Trump and the false CNN stas showing/proving he has already lost? A billion feet tall.

I was in the clouds after Iheard he had won. MY TA package (Crowd Sentiment analysis) took a magnficent boost in the realm of Tp/Bottom CAlling/Trading. Mistakes in the future? Do birds fly? But the foundation has been laid.

 

[fibo_trader]

So let's get to USDMXN (Dollar vs Mexican Peso)

Slam Dunk! Slam Dunk! Slam Dunk!

see next

 

[fibo_trader]

Trading opportunity Dollar/Mexican Peso ............ thanks to Donald J Trump for this one. Had he not done what he did today I might not have noticed the inner workings. On the monthly its been in a 4th wave triangle for 2 years, boring sideways action. PRICE is king, not Donald, but had donald not hammered Mexico today I would not have taken a closer look at the wave count at right edge of the chart. We are in rocket blaster Wave 3 north. Make hay amigos. Keep protective STOP right under Wave 2 in my chart. Its your catastrophic stop.

Wave 3 is supposed to be the fastest quickest return on investment.

This also means that Mexico is going to get even more cheap than it already is. It also might signal that Dollar is ready to restart hammering Emerging market currencies again???? Will have a look at Asia dollar index manana



monthly USDMXN



View attachment 263260






Daily USDMXN



View attachment 263261

For historians only

Posted May 31st, 2019 ........ see details in quote especially the charts.

 

[fibo_trader]

For historians only ..................... USDMXN updated ..................... now in March 2020

Lord have mercy! Its way too much, much too much for me. I'll do the same thing that YOU do, I'll put the weight on YOU.

That was the prayer when it turned out that in the rally in 2019 that I marked as wave 3 was actually a solid rally but an A-B-C within thelarge triangle. then more sideways stuff and it was getting more and more like a massive sideways triangle for wave 4.

What you're seeing the giant burst out of that triangle in Wave 5. this is what triangles do. That's why it is so worth it keeping aney onthem boring sons of b*tches.

 

[fibo_trader]

USDMXN: Dollar vs Mexican peso

From 10 pesos to the dollar, then 20 pesos and now it has crossed into 25+ .................. shocking! Like I said elsewhere here in this thread many times, when the US dollar rockets again, it will resume the slaughter of EMERGING ECONOMIES. That is exactly what is going down now. Thailand, SE Asia, Mexico all getting slaughtered. US dollar = reigning champ.

Here then is the fundmental side of the game, not from me but from Wolf Richter:

 

[fibo_trader]

More fundamental stuff from Wolf Richter .................... for fundamental data I like Wolf and Robert Prechter, both are top-notch and accurate. For technicals I go totally solo, nobody, nada, niemand.

From Wolf:
The Mexico peso is among a number of emerging market currencies that have become popular vehicles for carry trades, offering juicy interest-rate spreads against currencies with much lower interest rates such as the Japanese Yen or the euro. But when broad market sentiment toward emerging market risks turns, as is happening right now amid all the mayhem being triggered by the global response to the coronavirus, these currencies are particularly prone to capital outflows.

A significantly weaker peso will make it more difficult for Mexican corporations with large amounts of foreign-denominated debt on their books to service that debt.

 

[fibo_trader]

Back to Fibo's simplistic model of the totality of fundamental analysis - I enjoy reading Wolf Richter, he does solid work, but my reference is to make an overview as fast as possible of the KEY ingredient in Fundamental analysis ................

For Emerging markets its just this simple: US dollar denominated debt = murder when the dollar turns UP = death comes swiftly. This has stood me well and is a solid yardstick in Fibo's pocket.

 

[fibo_trader]

Now dig this:

I go frequently to Oaxaca, Mexico to revamp my Spanish. I could stay at a hotel but no, I prefer to stay with a Mexican family arranged by the school. What a ball!!!! All great mexican meals and conversation only in Spanish, zero English as they do not speak English.

The costs are so teeeeeeny weeeeny that I feel compleled to give big big tips to the kids of the family andnot tell the parents

Bloody Hell, room and board for just 300 bucks a week, classes for jsut 200 bucks a week ..................... one on one with a private teacher 20 bucks an hour. Bloody ridiculously low.

And now with the dollar skyrocketing its even lower costs for gringos.

Cops in Oaxaca love Fibo. they know I hang out at the El Zocalo after class every day .................. so they join me for fjun and frolic - their salarie are super low, they do a great job as there was no crime in Oaxaca - Fibo covers all drinks and partying with pleasure.

 

[fibo_trader]

El Zocalo is a plaza type thing, a square shape loaded with outdoor dining, cafes and upper floor restaurants too for breakfast, lunch and dinner partying. Ther is no beter place to have breakfast and read the paper in peace.

El Zocalo in Oaxaca, Mexico and Place St. Michel, Paris, France score #1 and #2 in that order worldwide for Fibo. the 3rd place contender is so far as to be on another planet.

 

[fibo_trader]

 

[fibo_trader]

Spanish total immersion classes in Oaxaca at language school highly recommended by Fibo ................ Becari ................... previous owners were Martha and Sandra, perhaps still so. Call and ask for them and then find out where Javier is at? He is the best spanish teacher of all time, also a Tai Chi world champion


americans are too slow, way too slow in general in languages - I was on a mission to tget to the Subjunctive asap, as that is where the juice is in the grammar, but these cats were too slow. So it was adamn shame Ihad to go solo with Javier one on one and so missed all the cararderie of the group of us gringos from California.

 

[fibo_trader]

Biggest shock I ever got this lifetime was when I first went to Guatemala and stayed at Casa Argentina, a hostel type setting for cats from all over the world. I asked for a spanish teacher one on one and dona Argentina the owner recommended one.

I almost fell of the chair when I aksed the price for one hour of istruction and she replied "50 cents" and so it was. Bloody ridiculous

 

[fibo_trader]

Dollar rampage may need intervention to shield U.S., global economy: Goldman Sachs





Everything I have ssaid in this thread from start about the dollar is here in ths article that was just released. Perfect precision of what the dollar is doing to everyone. Happiest cat is Big Joe - I was prepared for it

Dollar rampage may need intervention to shield U.S., global economy: Goldman Sachs

If the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented efforts to stimulate the economy and provide liquidity to financial markets don’t calm a rampaging dollar, it may be...

www.marketwatch.com

Search results for query: US Dollar

www.trade2win.com

 

[fibo_trader]

For historians only ........................


All Fibo attackers here on pages 1-15 were LONG stance the market. Not a single one was even remotely considering a turn or going short. NOT a single one. Nada. Zippo. Easy proof in this thread and other thread by Fibo. Straightforward proof.

I would love to attend all funerals and pay respects to all

Here are the facts


Over 3 years of gains in SPX gone up in smoke in 22 days

 

[fibo_trader]

Bank runs expected to begin soon - anytime between now and the end of the upcoming big rally. If we get this rally then the next wave down is wave 3. That would be the perfect time in BEAR jargon for bank runs, epic runs

Not recommended to keep loads of cash on deposit.

Dangerous times

 

[fibo_trader]

Bank runs expected to begin soon - anytime between now and the end of the upcoming big rally. If we get this rally then the next wave down is wave 3. That would be the perfect time in BEAR jargon for bank runs, epic runs

Not recommended to keep loads of cash on deposit.

Dangerous times

Financial Select Spider in really bad shape. Tomorrow another big chunk of cash will be rremoved from my accounts and salted.

Anytime now it willpop. And remember that the new Laws are called BAIL-IN. This means they don't have to ask your permssion or ask the govt. to bail them out. Theyjust swipe the deposits to save themselves. Its all in writing - see for yourselves. You agreed to it.


Double top phenomena. The neckline is too far away but the implication of turning down at aprevious top and going down with huge red bars is really bad news.

Withdraw cash asap. I'm getting a load tomorrow

 

[fibo_trader]

Rally overall worldwide was called by me as good chance due to several of these casts arriving at 50% retracement ................ like the financial select spyder. comeon Man, no bounce off the 50%? that's bad, bad, bad.

Watch the real time TF for early warnng signs of rally.

 

[fibo_trader]

The Japs might have started the ball rolling with a solid rally. Global dow is getting there but looks sluggish. But the Japs look promising in the face of US futures

Japan does a perfect bound off of my Fibo level grid shown