yep, its the last high we have. price will likely change matters as it goes about its journey, but there are only two levels we have right now to go on. and for clarity, when it says higher lows, or higher highs, we're talking about swing highs, and swing lows
ok so now going back to your questions..
chart 2, chart 3 and chart 4 are your areas that you are looking at to provide potential future support.
pesonally, i couldn't give a flying doughnut where price "may" reverse. it may, it may not. i only want to know where it does. and we will never know until after its happened. now like i say, this is your analysis, doesnt make me right or wrong. fibonacci has 4 or 5 points, thats like sticking a tail on a donkey. a 25% chance of getting it right...too arbitrary
ok moving on, you've mentioned a 21monthly ema and a 50monthly ema. interesting. never heard of the significance of those numbers. the only number im generally bothered about about is 200 day, equating to the 40week or 10 month SMA. i want to see where price is reacting to that number.
should i get a higher high (on a weekly) for example far away from the 10month, i'm likely to take it with a pinch of salt, and allocate a small part of my equity on its significance
last chart 5. you have asked..
"My ultimate question is what is the best way to confirm which of the two support levels (if any) is the market most likely to reverse from to make a new all time high?"
I've covered it in my rant above
the best way is to wait for price to made a higher swing low first. only then would i think price has made some sign of it stopping its decline. and one of your levels will likely have turned out to be correct...if its going to reverse, it will happen and the weekly timeframe will give it away soon enough.
i recommend reading a book from a guy called Stan Weinstein. profiting from bull and bear markets. he does a great job of explaining price action on the weekly. there is a thread also on the topic but i still recommend the book
Quick Links: ■ Introduction (0:00) ■ Major Market Indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq, NYSE & S&P 600 Small Caps (0:53) ■ VIX Volatility Index (5:34) ■ US Treasuries & Commodities – 7-10 Year US Treasuries, Gold, Crude Oil & Copper (6:56) ■ Sector Breadth: Percentage of Stocks Above Their 150 Day Moving...
given your propensity for much longer term horizons (again, i commend you) can i recommend my second favourite book called dual momentum by gary antonacci
i have both and use both when managing my own money. nothing short of fabulous in my opinion