N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
ah yes conviniant..make claims you cant and wont back up..then delete all the evidence..nice
montmorencyt2w
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,619
- Likes
- 294
No, I guessed as much.
It's even more hilarious (as well as being rather sad at the same time) that Peter Schiff's old man is currently doing time for not paying his income tax. He apparently wrote a book encouraging people not to as well. I know that some people claim that there is no law in effect in the USA that says you have to. I would have thought that the Schiff family could have afforded a better lawyer.
AC26XP
Member
- Messages
- 89
- Likes
- 1
Yep, this thread does seem somewhat devoid of the "facts", so I will attempt to provide a few:
As you may know, the US House of Representatives just passed the Healthcare Reform bill. The price tag on this health care bill is measured in trillions... uh, that's trillion with a "T".
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE59M4PB20091108
And more "fresh options" for US government spending introduced on Friday, chief among them money to extend jobless benefits, new spending on roads and bridges, business tax cuts, refitting buildings to make them more energy efficient, easing the flow of credit to small businesses and boosting U.S. exports.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5A53T720091106
All this on top of a 10.2% US jobless rate and the existing $787 billion economic stimulus measures and other steps the government has already taken to try to improve the economy while also attempting to bail-out companies that are too big to fail.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Housing/idUSN0243717320091107
A worrisome United States economy is only one piece of the "global econ fundamental" puzzle... What about Eurozone, Japanese, and Chinese stimulus (and their central bank gold purchases) and IMF transactions (India recent purchasing chief among them) ?
(I really don't need to provide links to those articles, do I ?)
So... when you add-up these factors, IMHO it can only provide sustained credibility that global inflation fears and gold's up-trend will continue for a long time... and in concert with the technical part of equation mentioned in earlier replies.
Happy trading,
AC
As you may know, the US House of Representatives just passed the Healthcare Reform bill. The price tag on this health care bill is measured in trillions... uh, that's trillion with a "T".
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE59M4PB20091108
And more "fresh options" for US government spending introduced on Friday, chief among them money to extend jobless benefits, new spending on roads and bridges, business tax cuts, refitting buildings to make them more energy efficient, easing the flow of credit to small businesses and boosting U.S. exports.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5A53T720091106
All this on top of a 10.2% US jobless rate and the existing $787 billion economic stimulus measures and other steps the government has already taken to try to improve the economy while also attempting to bail-out companies that are too big to fail.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Housing/idUSN0243717320091107
A worrisome United States economy is only one piece of the "global econ fundamental" puzzle... What about Eurozone, Japanese, and Chinese stimulus (and their central bank gold purchases) and IMF transactions (India recent purchasing chief among them) ?
(I really don't need to provide links to those articles, do I ?)
So... when you add-up these factors, IMHO it can only provide sustained credibility that global inflation fears and gold's up-trend will continue for a long time... and in concert with the technical part of equation mentioned in earlier replies.
Happy trading,
AC
Martinghoul
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,691
- Likes
- 276
Interesting stuff here:
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-gold-bars-selling-like-hotcakes-at-harrods-2009-11
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-gold-bars-selling-like-hotcakes-at-harrods-2009-11
N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
the trouble with "facts is, in the markets 2 + 2 doesn't always = 4
AC26XP
Member
- Messages
- 89
- Likes
- 1
Well, that's a convenient, if not ambivalent, shrug-off.
Doesn't always having to provide a counter-argument, always falling on your sword, get old?
(sigh...)
Good luck...
N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
my thesis for delfation is all over this forum try looking cba to post it every time time this comes up! and this argument was about the inflation adjusted price of gold, what evience do you need? its all in here.
N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
and what i meant by 2+2 doesnt - 4 is that just because something is the standard text book theory doesnt mean its actually true. people harp on way to much about printing money when in reality that is a TINY part of money creation and will do little to cause inflation. the money supply world wide has contracted at a RECORD pace.
Martinghoul
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,691
- Likes
- 276
And some thoughts from Buiter:
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold-a-six-thousand-year-old-bubble/
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold-a-six-thousand-year-old-bubble/
Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980 record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California- based Shadowstats.com. He said the government has understated the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI.
Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at $1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, gaining for a third straight week.
“If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a3w9OGzFRe3Y
Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at $1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, gaining for a third straight week.
“If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a3w9OGzFRe3Y
N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
how long it take you to find that, one guy claiming it..must be true
Poborsky
Good article.....But this is a voice of Ione individual who has worked up a figure by looking at ways of calculation inflation to the method used in 1980, and made his proclamation.....But whenever the method of inflation calcs are revised, they do take into account the progress and other products that crop up.....So it is wrong to use 1980 method to calculate inflation....In my humble opinion of course....!
...And no another film please.....I am short of pop corn...!
You are confusing method of calculation and content. It is quite feasible.
If progress is taking out food and energy from the calculation and assuming that when prices rise that people buy cheaper products as substitution, plus using geometric weighting to further distort the figures, while adjusting for so called rise in quality of products to arrive at the inflation figures then possibly progress is not always a good thing.
....all in the best possible taste..
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,774
- Likes
- 3,975
:clap::clap::clap:
Nothing smacks like that of truth... Dawn of realisation... :-0
Shoot the messenger - always works for me... :cheesy:
My analysis and comments are maybe skewed from a trading perspective but we are also talking about fundamentals. If I was trading gold, then yes I would trade what I see and be on the long side right now.
The reason I would be buying would be because this is playing out as oil 08. Yes there are many differences but the level of speculation is not.
I heard all the ridicule when I said oil was overbought at $100 but the breach of that level sent pension funds and record level of futures speculation piling in. Now that you have your long emotional bias in place you are talking of support at 1050 etc and all this is fine for someone trading daily.
The 200 pip move in the dollar last month sent gold down around $50 and a sustained move would've seen it through $1000 without any doubt. This showed that in a surprise correction, gold traders didn't have the guts to back their fundamental calls and the rapid change in sentiment was too fast for central banks to catch the falling knife.
So what happens next? We go off to the races again and the newer, new highs have added further speculative positions and more public clamour. The $2000 inflation adjusted highs are now 4000 and 8000?? Where is the logic? Why don't we just revalue it to $500,000 an ounce since we have found the ultimate asset for financial gain and prosperity?
To go back to oil again, with price over $100 we had Goldman calling for $150 and Gazprom stating $200. Peak oil theorists said we'd never see prices below $100 again and talked of 300/400. The current hysteria surrounding gold is exactly the same.
So let's wait a while to see if my comments and analysis are skewed.
The problem with financial markets is that they work on herd behaviour. I thought maybe the credit crunch being so fresh would lead to more humble pricing but it appears not.
A fall in the dollar now leads to rises in oil and gold, which feeds rises in commodity currencies and commodity related stocks. The rise in the stock index, then adds to every other stock rising on the basis of positive sentiment and index weighting This plays out every day, with good economic data causing a 200 rise in the dow, but bad data leading to a 40 or 50 point drop. How does this all play out? Do we simply glide along to a state of perfectly correlated and efficiently priced assets? or is there a risk of sentiment changing and unwinding the speculative moves?
The reason I would be buying would be because this is playing out as oil 08. Yes there are many differences but the level of speculation is not.
I heard all the ridicule when I said oil was overbought at $100 but the breach of that level sent pension funds and record level of futures speculation piling in. Now that you have your long emotional bias in place you are talking of support at 1050 etc and all this is fine for someone trading daily.
The 200 pip move in the dollar last month sent gold down around $50 and a sustained move would've seen it through $1000 without any doubt. This showed that in a surprise correction, gold traders didn't have the guts to back their fundamental calls and the rapid change in sentiment was too fast for central banks to catch the falling knife.
So what happens next? We go off to the races again and the newer, new highs have added further speculative positions and more public clamour. The $2000 inflation adjusted highs are now 4000 and 8000?? Where is the logic? Why don't we just revalue it to $500,000 an ounce since we have found the ultimate asset for financial gain and prosperity?
To go back to oil again, with price over $100 we had Goldman calling for $150 and Gazprom stating $200. Peak oil theorists said we'd never see prices below $100 again and talked of 300/400. The current hysteria surrounding gold is exactly the same.
So let's wait a while to see if my comments and analysis are skewed.
The problem with financial markets is that they work on herd behaviour. I thought maybe the credit crunch being so fresh would lead to more humble pricing but it appears not.
A fall in the dollar now leads to rises in oil and gold, which feeds rises in commodity currencies and commodity related stocks. The rise in the stock index, then adds to every other stock rising on the basis of positive sentiment and index weighting This plays out every day, with good economic data causing a 200 rise in the dow, but bad data leading to a 40 or 50 point drop. How does this all play out? Do we simply glide along to a state of perfectly correlated and efficiently priced assets? or is there a risk of sentiment changing and unwinding the speculative moves?
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,774
- Likes
- 3,975
Dear Saint, I pretty much concur with your fundamental analysis here and all the relationships you mention with respect to dollar, gold and oil etc.
I think what got me was the amount of faith you put into the US economy backed by military might.
The economy has been prodded up with creative accounting for the last 20+ years. Just look at it. Enron is the tip of the ice berg. Cisco and IBM and others were also in the queue. Their balance sheets and worth were all hype. Including the car industry and even the way the Dow is calculated. The DOW is so inflated its pure air... Measured in real terms against gold you'd be surprised how little it has grown. Somebody once put something up on these blogs but I can't find it.
As for the military machine unless R&D is converted to industrial production and mass sales what good is it to anybody. The US went into Iraq to re-instate the dollar and steal the oil. I think it has cost it a lot having destabilised region and trippled oil price as well destabilised the military - as not many people want to sign up anymore.
I've been calling these bloody wars a disgrace and barmy from the outset very much against humanity. The Bush & Blair double act was an atrocity. We've almost even lost the status of financial credibility which London rests on. These wars have been a big loss to both countries. All that money death and destruction. For what? Its like quick sand and we are not out of **** yet either.
Pulling out we will lose face and national pride. We will have placed two puppet regimes friendly to our nations which will be highly questionable as to whether they can hold power once we leave. I doubt it. Then we will say we tried but the people are unrully. And we can stand tall again. What a load of BS.
As for for the policians telling us the army is protecting us from terrorists that has got to be the BIGGEST LIE. They are making us targets having killed so many innocent civilians. The three hundred troops might have found peace in death but we have literally 000s maimed and injured and many more with psychological illness. Why doesn't Germany or France, Spain, Italy, Portugal have these threats??? I fear the repurcussions will be with us for many years to come at great cost. I can't stand Brown who feels this is in our national interest. **** head of a man that he is.
You see the budget defecits, wars and the financial markets - have made the old twin defecits look like a cake walk. We now have quadruple whammies. Lets throw in the recession in there too.
Until each one of these issues are dealt with gold will continue to maintain the high ground. May never get back down to $500 level either.
N Rothschild
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,296
- Likes
- 603
just had a call from my mother none the less, asking if she should buy some gold..
i told her that that phone call would make me wana sell the **** out of gold, not buy it..
i told her that that phone call would make me wana sell the **** out of gold, not buy it..
The complex retreated last week, giving back gains posted over the past few weeks. Gold rose to a new record high of 1432.5 early in the week, and a correction was triggered by rises in US-Treasury yields. That being the case, a further sell-off cannot be ruled out, but long-term macro-economic outlook should continue to support Gold’s up-trend.
Gold demand has been rising steadily in the emerging markets. The Shanghai Gold Exchange reports that, Gold imports in China rose to 209 metric tons in the first 10 months of Y 2010, more than quadrupling 45 metric tons for all of Y 2009.
The Strong demand for the precious Yellow metal is driven by inflationary pressures and the government’s measures to curb asset prices.
Gold demand has been rising steadily in the emerging markets. The Shanghai Gold Exchange reports that, Gold imports in China rose to 209 metric tons in the first 10 months of Y 2010, more than quadrupling 45 metric tons for all of Y 2009.
The Strong demand for the precious Yellow metal is driven by inflationary pressures and the government’s measures to curb asset prices.
