A thought on Gold

[SAINT]

A 2006 estimate of all the gold ever mined totaled 158,000 tonnes.

One tonne of gold equated to a value of US$30.27 million as of February 14, 2009 ($941.35/troy ounces).

The total value of all gold ever mined would be US$4.78 trillion at that price.

Considering that world wealth is around $92 trillion, should gold be in the thousands?

or is a large part of the $87 trillion false?

 

[N Rothschild]

"wealth" doesnt = money though! us wealth is about 50 trillion..thats peoples homes etc etc..but is there enough money to buy all these homes? nope! Just because something is valued at something, doesnt mean it could be converted to cash.

And yes it is false, fiat currencey is one giant ponzi scheme

 

[The Baptist]

"wealth" doesnt = money though! us wealth is about 50 trillion..thats peoples homes etc etc..but is there enough money to buy all these homes? nope! Just because something is valued at something, doesnt mean it could be converted to cash.

And yes it is false, fiat currencey is one giant ponzi scheme

I am impressed you have come a long way in a short time, who is the greatest issuer of Fiat Paper again? :cheesy:

 

[N Rothschild]

still doesnt mean i believe in infaltion and rising gold

 

[SAINT]

I see big writedown risk too. The assets would revert towards the mean.
The ending of the gold standard in '71 has seen a huge glut of printed money

.

I guess what i'm hinting at, is that a collapse in the dollar doesn't automatically mean a higher gold price.
It just means higher demand. The gold price wouldn't be priced on a 90 trillion economy, but a 50 trillion or 30 trillion if there was big deflation. Gold holds its value but not necessarily its price.

 

[The Baptist]

still doesnt mean i believe in infaltion and rising gold

Dollar devaluation (GBP too) = Inflation for those economies.

It does not require any additional demand for commodities as these are priced in Dollars, in fact it may allow for a reduction in demand and still see appreciation, on the basis that demand can't fall as much as the currency revalues downwards.

 

[N Rothschild]

thats only if the dollar continues to devalue

seeing everyone thinks the dollar is going down the pan, its almost certainly not.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Of course when you cash in your winnings (on gold), it won't be worth anything

 

[Atilla]

Of course when you cash in your winnings (on gold), it won't be worth anything

What if you exchange a small sovereign for an Aston Martin because the dealer refuses your cash...

 

[forexhitman]

afternoon

nice thread

 

[SAINT]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debugging-gold-gold-bugs#comment-120908

A technical look at Gold.


"...Nadler’s comments have become nothing short of a lightning rod for gold bugs who continue to respond with increasing derision to any data point or point-of-view that does not effectively proclaim future gold prices that reach into the exosphere."

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/f.../1836-jon-nadler-gold-not-in-bull-market.html

"What we really see is a momentum- and index-fund-driven speculative move that started almost on cue on Sept. 1. They've been piling in, hand over fist, with margin positions and futures positions that have now mushroomed to a level that's unreal—historic highs, on the order of 750 tons of long positions. They outnumbered the shorts 9:1 as of the week before last; it has since narrowed to 7:1 [as of Tuesday, Oct. 27]. Still, that's way distorted."

 

[SAINT]

Favourite quote is at the end: "Crigger: But it's just so far from where we are right now—and the several-thousand-dollar level that some people are predicting.

Nadler: If they see that coming, well, I suggest freeze-dried food, a couple of Uzis and a cabin in Vermont—because if that's what they see, it would come to a point where even gold would not help. In fact, at that point, it would be a liability."

Those who predict a dollar armageddon maybe fail to see the wider consequences of trillions in world wealth flushed away. How many gold bars would you get in a ruck sack

The reserve currency would be backed by the U.S. military!

 

[zambuck]

If you want to know about gold then follow what Indians are doing, and which month Indian celebrations occur, and when Indians go and buy gold - at any price - .....!

Also when US$ is huffing and puffing, FED will take relief from the fact that Indians bought 200 tons of gold from IMF, rather than Euro.....You see Indians are faithful to US as US has put faith in their nuclear technology....

It will go up to 1500...if things pan out....read below...

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/55663...rd-high-after-indian-purchase-dollar-weakness

 

[poborsky]

 

[Atilla]

Favourite quote is at the end: "Crigger: But it's just so far from where we are right now—and the several-thousand-dollar level that some people are predicting.

Nadler: If they see that coming, well, I suggest freeze-dried food, a couple of Uzis and a cabin in Vermont—because if that's what they see, it would come to a point where even gold would not help. In fact, at that point, it would be a liability."

Those who predict a dollar armageddon maybe fail to see the wider consequences of trillions in world wealth flushed away. How many gold bars would you get in a ruck sack

The reserve currency would be backed by the U.S. military!

With due respect Saint, we were having these gold overbought discussions at 980-1030. Will gold hold the $1000 mark and no it was not able to. 1060 was tested coupled with a pullback to 1030 and then off it went again. 1050 is now next support imo.

Next level is $1250 and that test maybe more difficult to over come but never the less I think it will.

I learnt to my cost trade what you see not what you think give or take a few psychological distortions.


Ok having said all that at FA level the dollar is a pile of plain ol green paper at the end of the day. Even rises in interest rates not likely to have long term effect on its value. It has lost so much credibility and ground it has mountains to climb.

As for US military power. We've seen it in action and it has failed miserably. US military power is precisely why the dollar has failed with its burden on budget defecits.

One reason (amongst others) why German and Japanese economies are so strong is because for the last 60 years they haven't spent their 5-10% of GDP on weapons of mass distraction... Or foreign policy on playing cowboys. In the long run it all adds up.

Thus, I feel your analysis and comments are off skew in light of cause and effect. :idea:

 

[N Rothschild]

peter schiff should be drowned

 

[AC26XP]

Could anyone who is heavy into technical analysis give their opinion if gold will fill some of the huge gap-ups in last several weeks?
The $975 gap-up comes to mind.
Is the statute of limitation over for filling gaps in lieu of India buying ?

Just looking for some educated opinions on the technical dynamic of gaps and nature abhoring a vacuum.

Thanks,
AC

 

[montmorencyt2w]

peter schiff should be drowned

A difference of opinion on the price of gold or over inflation/deflation is one thing but your dislike of Peter Schiff seems almost personal.

What happened? Did he steal your best girl, entice away your puppy or kitten, criticise your driving, or what?

I think we should be told.

 

[zambuck]

...These bloody videos are too boring....Unlike a written message that one can scan and read, and move on, with these videos one has to sit and listen to all ****e, only to know that it was not worth listening to...!

 

[Atilla]

Could anyone who is heavy into technical analysis give their opinion if gold will fill some of the huge gap-ups in last several weeks?
The $975 gap-up comes to mind.
Is the statute of limitation over for filling gaps in lieu of India buying ?

Just looking for some educated opinions on the technical dynamic of gaps and nature abhoring a vacuum.

Thanks,
AC

We've had 12345 wave and about to have an ABC correction to be followed by another 12345 all the way to 1250

... :clap:

Not heavy but light hearted TA...