Conspiracy Trader

[fxmade2trade]

Let us gain a different perspective on things, let me start by correlating some of the major players in the market and how they tie in to one another. One of the largest futures and options exchanges in the world is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade) the CME group is described by The Economist as "The biggest financial exchange you have never heard of" created designated contract markets (DCM) of the CME group. The DCM are the outcome of four very large exchange groups merged into one, The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), NYMEX, and Commodity Exchange, Inc (COMEX) and CME. In 2010 they owned 90% of the DOWs index and 24% of the S&P Dow Jones Indices. The CME recently bought the Kansas City Board of Trade for $126 million. Matter of fact they have a hand in everything it seems, they even provide “Clearing services” settlements that specialize in the “clearing of exchange trades”. Now they operate derivatives exchanges in London and are the new administrators for the LMBA. The CME even ended a 117 year run of the silver fix earlier this year with the LMBA. They even changed the trademarked name from “fix” to “price” just to ensure recognition because they could not keep the “fix” name.

The question is when and who will gain control of the gold price? We know China has been trying now for a while and are close, China stated at the Gold Congress a month ago it wants control of the physical gold price. With how big the China HSBC has become, despite the controversies and money laundering. They seem to have a hand in all parties decision making and are working close with the LMBA and CME. The LMBA seems at odds with the Gold World Counsel (GWC) their former spokesperson, so what is really happening here.

How much control does the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) really have with the likes of JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Scotia Mocatta and UBS the heavy holders of bullion and members of London Precious Metals Clearing Limited. Since September 22 the LMBA has not been supplying the LME with forward curve data that has been supplied to us by the market makers since 2009, instead it is replaced with the Gold Forward Offered rates (GOFO).

The demand for gold is still very high we see this when we look at charts showing tons being sold and mined. How do we find the true price and value of gold? We do know gold is massively undervalued, and heavily manipulated by the market. Do not just invest in PMs in case of the market crashing; invest because the fiat money will inevitably fall. Time and time again the people that are holding PMs get rich not poor. You own PMs not just to get rich, but to hold your own economic value. Gold insures that you pass wealth down for generations to come, it is not just insurance for you, and it is true insurance for your children’s children and so on. Don’t be mad at yourself that you missed the one chance you may have to buy gold in the next decade as low is they are, or that you can still even buy these physical metals at all. In 2008 after the crash the estimated waiting list for PMs was 2-6 months out, if at all. Estimates on price vary because of the physical gold supply, and that is really more limited than we could ever imagine.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Okay, with all the news being about Ebola, I did not want to engross my readers with more information that we already know. Let me be the one to put a twist on it.
Anytime that the government is telling us that we have nothing to fear, we should be very afraid. I am quite sure Hitler told all the countries he took over and the people he killed “not to be afraid” as well. As history repeats itself time and again, a common theme is the reassurance to the people, to reduce panic and fear by the emperors and kings just as they turn their back on their own people and leave them to die. In 2014 I am stunned by the lack of important measures taken to prevent this disease from spreading.
The incompetence is unreal, we are seeing it with the CDC, the hospitals, even our own president, who is making this seem like we have control over something that is already too big to regain any hope for the soon to be 100,000,000s of people infected. Let’s just estimate 8,000 people out of the say 20 million combined countries in Africa where infected bodies are laying in the streets and handled by family members, with no adequate systems for sewage and water. If it is transmitted by fluids, is it in the water ways and how long till it mutates in some of the highest populated countries and becomes airborne?
According to Obama there is nothing to fear, and information given by the CDC members is overly reassuring, all is fine, despite the attempts to track down all passengers and anyone who has come in contact with the infected, or that it costs over $150,000 to clean an apartment after, but its fine to travel. With Americas extreme caution and use of experimental drugs on patients any infected would be idiots not to come here or send a sick family member here or Europe for treatments. We now have an infected nurse flying on not one, but two flights. A nurse spoke out saying some members broke “optional” quarantine and went for soup. We have optional tests at airports and are flying in people from Africa.
Many may think this to be population control. I feel it’s way deeper than that NIH keeps pushing to vaccinate entire countries with a new Ebola vaccine, it may be that the true threat will lie in the vaccine itself. Pharmaceutical companies are just like many of the bankers and the FED, corrupt and out for themselves. With the healthcare system totally turned around by Obama care and costing 300 billion more than expected. It seems to be nice timing for a major disease to break out that has no cure, the FEDs bubble is bursting and market collapsing, lets blame it all on the outbreak and ISIS while we gain more oil and buy up gold and PMs, sit back and burn the fiat to keep warm.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Experiences in Asian culture concerning paper money has not been so good, historically they have more tangible assets than we Americans do. With the economy in such disarray, it looks like our own negative fiat experience is just beginning with the monetary challenges that we face in the East and West. China and India combined make about one third of the global population, this is not including Russia and Iran who both seem to be on the same page as China and India. Historically having and buying bullion has been a strong cultural way to secure their disposable income for centuries. Gold has not just been a social standard for these countries but a necessity, an insurance.
The SGE is pushing to provide gold options; this could change the London fix price, something that they have been working on for some time now. So will we see a mass selling spree of bullion? I think not, not when it comes to physical gold. We are not seeing just a trend in the buying of gold; we are experiencing a major shift in structure as a whole. Russia and Asia are acting like their own CB by veering from the flood of QE and securing their own currency truly diversifying their own wealth backed by gold not oil.
For instance, Russia bought 37.3 tonnes of metal during a time when political tensions are at a high and Putin’s own currency is falling hard, they buy gold. Putin does not seem concerned with much but the buying of metal, since this was the largest amount by the CB in the last fifteen years. Putin’s battle with the bankers seems to be reminiscent of the Battle of Stalingrad or Napoleons invasion, he is finding a way to defeat the fall of his currency by investing in gold. We are seeing this with China and India showing high numbers from the SGE surpassing last years. The festivities this week in India caused gold to reach a high, during this week 20% of gold purchased annually happens during this festival. In India, half of the jewelry bought in a year is for the some 10 million lavish weddings that take place, some lasting days. Where the gold that is bought and passed down to the new families is considered more important than the bride and groom. Since they are the second largest buyers of physical gold India makes up about 32% of the worlds gold buyers, we see a lot of volatility with the price as the puppetries try to keep it below a reverse level.
Fear of the FED and higher rates cause traders to get cold feet when it comes to gold, and you see more and more of the fluctuation in price and stocks as the market swings. All this year we have been seeing an anti gold campaign in the two largest buyers of the precious bullion with luxury bans. We have to remember that India’s Reserve Bank is a branch of England’s (Rothschild’s). These countries seem resistant to the ban and gold and metals are still in high demand, so why is it still low? That way they can buy it up at a low cost.

 

[fxmade2trade]

10/21/2014
Can we really blame the gross domestic product reports on the weather?

The U.S. did just that when it blamed the 100 billion lost on snow early this year. China is now following suit of the bazaar claim that cool weather is the reason for the outcome and higher levels of activity growth in the recent outcome of the GDP data. Seems odd to me considering that the pollution in China is so intense you cannot even see the sun at times. Since when does economic data rely on weather? To better understand this let us look at how we see and get the GDP overall. We have to understand the factors of the data research.

The System of National Accounting (SNA) and the Material Product System (MPA) that was used in the early soviet union, still used by some countries as an alternative to the United Nations System of National Accounts (UNSNA) or (SNA) that focuses on "free market" prices. This is supposed to provide data of economic activity on an international level. Countries cannot provide the same data, it is impossible, the country that invests billions into research, is not going to be the same as a country that cannot be assessed because of geographical factors, or socio-political instability. Some governments will not allow surveys of all kinds to take place. Many factors prevent the “same” data from being entered. The input-output levels can be highly manipulated due to the standard. The UN cannot enforce the same standard. Since it differs from country to country so there are often discrepancies, quarterly and yearly revisions, but as long as they provide sufficient data on national accounts the UN will fit it into its standard, all the other accounts can be reworked up to UN standard. If you look UN Yearbook, under detailed tables the data over decades instead of yearly you will see a trend change significantly. Studies in economics have shown that even the “free market prices” are truly regulated and administered prices in Western countries.

Many people do not even know that the MPA exists. The MPA that uses administered prices, measures the output of “material goods” tangible products, in comparison to “services”, usually in national accounts, the data collected is only to measure the “value” of outputs produced. Comparing the MPS and SNA is how China determines the GDP.

 

[fxmade2trade]

10/20/2014
Little discussion has been on the important news prior to the referendum on November 30th regarding the Swiss campaign to “save our gold”

One of the largest groups of political representatives in the Swiss parliament are considered to be the national conservative members of the SVP Swiss People’s Party. The SVP filed a initiative on August 26, 2011 with the Swiss government, Titled “Gold Initiative: A Swiss Initiative to Secure the Swiss National Bank’s Gold Reserves”, later changed to “save our Swiss gold initiative” This campaign is to retrieve the Swiss family’s gold and considered to be the peoples gold. The gold was sold off by The Swiss National Bank and the Bank for International Settlements. The initiative states that the physical gold must be stored in Switzerland, and total assets of the SNB must have 20% of assets backed by physical gold and can not sell the reserves. Gold of the Swiss National Bank must be stored physically in Switzerland. The Swiss frank now backed by 25% instead of the 40% that was required back in 1997. SVP blame the devaluation of the CHF on the lack of gold backing. The SVP argue that the FED and CB increasing their money supply has devalued not only the CHF but also the USD and EUR. The SVP say that if they hold gold to back the CHF it would stop the devaluation. This vote will not only would make other countries view gold as a huge monetary and safe asset, we would also see a huge increase on the EUR itself. A few other Countries seem like they are swaying the same way, we see China, Russia and others stocking up on the precious bullion. This could be the biggest global move for gold, as it would drive the gold prices sky high.

 

[fxmade2trade]

10/16/2014


I have referred to the petrodollar before with emphasis on it being the only real cause for war.

With every other geopolitical catastrophe, taking place it is hard to focus on just one. Russia and China seem to be climbing in bed together with a new energy deal, where Russia would provide oil and gas to China. Russia, who has been mimicking China and buying up gold in major quantities this last year. Putin may have more in mind in doing this, knowing this could entice China into further trades we do not see just. In fact, instead of worrying about its own currency, Russia has had a focus on gold even issuing new policies to purchase much more of the bullion. Looking at gold ratio charts in the last 13 months Russia’s gold reserves increased over 33%, with more than 10% of Russia’s reserve currency is held in bullion, and that is just increasing daily. As they get closer and closer to the EU’s 40% would take currency back to the gold standard, then maybe people will see Putin’s plan as he is selling his USD for gold.

We know Putin is not a fan of the U.S. and aligning itself with China could be huge in a long-term perspective considering they could truly isolate themselves with land and sea. Russia has many raw materials and China has the manufacturing capability. This could cause a truly massive power shift from the U.S. dominance into the hands of Asia. Just to give you an idea of the foreign gold reserves these counties are holding, China is number one in the world, with $ 3,821,000,000,000, Russia is number six with $ 515,600,000,000, and the U.S. is number twenty, with only 4% of what China has, so in lame terms, they have 96% more than us.

As an American, I am so disappointed in my country, its corruption, and lack of good decisions in general. We are possibly trying to strong-arm Putin, by driving down the oil prices and the Ruble. However what we are doing will not last, Saudi Arabia wont let that happen, OPEC wont let it happen, just how long till a civil war takes place and some major bombing right on there pipelines? Putin is by far not an idiot and has a strong military backing and unlike other leaders, he does not need a vote, poll, or any congressional approval to bomb or make any moves that benefit him. Russians will survive, unlike the Americans they do not have the faith in government, Central banks, or leadership as most do after the last Dictator let millions starve to death. It will be interesting if all of a sudden we see oil being bought in the Euro, Europe buying gas and oil from Russia, all because of the gold backing and loss of the petrodollar.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Controlled Information FED to us


We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. You are about to experience the awe and mystery of: The Outer Limits.

As the stock market rises, we have to ask ourselves how many stock buybacks are taking place to artificially raise the market. The FED loans and funds these buybacks for a 1% rate and the bankers get their cut. The FED doesn’t benefit from the halt on QE that’s why we wont see it end. We should look at Germany and see our very own future, since Germany is the only one who has experienced inflation to the extreme. Japan is experiencing the same fate with the illusion that funds are being printed out of thin air. The market is by far not a fixed market, but a central institutionally owned one. The information that we receive about unemployment and inflation is totally impossible “they” report that we are near full employment yet the public is out of work, job fairs overflowing, and students with masters degrees searching for any job to get hired. Other statistics show 93 million are jobless, so how do their numbers match up?
Does anyone remember The Plunge Protection team, the presidents working group on financial markets. This is not the FED or QE, none of that, this is a whole other entity in fact after “Black Monday” in 1987 Regan put together a team to prevent the market from having major downturns. The group was charged and accused of going way beyond their legal mandate in attempts to manipulate the stock market by using government funds to buy stock index futures and stocks or using moral suasion to have banks do their dirty work. The only way they really could don this is through the US treasury, the FED or the cooperation of banks. Quite possibly all of the above were done and still are, on OCT 2008 the Working group did issue a statement saying that the government may own certain shares in the firms that which it provided loans. Knowledge truly is the most powerful thing we have as humans we can not just rely on the numbers, the reports that are fed to us (no pun intended), knowing all aspects is the only way we will keep up with the TPTB.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Frank Zappa was on to it:
Q: "Who is going to defend the country without the Army?"
Zappa: "From what? The biggest threat to America is its own federal government... Will the Army protect anybody from the FBI? The IRS? The CIA? The Republican Party? The Democratic Party?... The biggest dangers we face today don't even need to sneak past our billion-dollar defense systems... they issue the contracts for them."

 

[fxmade2trade]

Putin Together a Team

Putin stated his opinion in a speech today from Sochi, he talked about the USD and how it is not the reserve currency that we once had. This was after he had just met with princes from the middle east, it seems Putin has started to form a team, and the US is not a pick. Vladimir also expresses how the US is dismantling its allies and the growing risk on global security, and international relations. He calls for interdependence globally, and looking for new economic ties. He stated that the global leaders are blackmailed into their idealism. That the US has a “self Appointed” leader, and humiliates its partners. Clearly Putin is not a fan of the US. Should he be?

He implied that social media in the US is running things. History of the US social media shows he is right. Would we see Russia differently if the media hadn’t portrayed it the way they did? “My whole life I have watched movies like Top Gun, Red Heat, etc. movies, shows and books that influenced so many of us to believe that the Russians were just evil villains, in fact it was instilled in us though many forms of the anti Russia campaign. He however is talking about a much deeper level of media run society. That we are being fed lies, while the truths are manipulated, concealed by TPTB, they say we are safe and things are fine. I personally would rather spend six hundred dollars on PMs than an iphone, but ten million people don’t agree with me. To TPTB us being blind sheep is better than the alternative, each American standing up grabbing a gun, taking out the fiat that doesn’t exist, investing in gold instead of a digital decimal point and seeing just how stable we really are. What the kids are learning now is very different than the lies that were in the text books just a few years ago.

The more we withdrew and retreated, the more aggressive Putin has become, he may feel he has to prove himself, show his strength after the cold war era. Vladimir’s campaign seems to be a campaign for anarchy. What he is stating is terrifying because its so true. Out of all the world leaders we have right now, he is the only one that is making any sense of things, and other countries are taking notes, countries seem to be very intrigued at the quite isolated Russian, now not being so quite or isolated. Should we be looking at what Russia is doing it seems like a few counties are climbing on board with going back to a classic gold backing, Germany, The Swiss, China and India not to mention the others on this team like Iran who if they jump ship on the USD well we saw what happened to Saddam and Qudaffie when they bailed on the USD so even though I am a true believer in PMs, I know what the US is capable of and know if they are pushing against the petrodollar and going for the gold we will find a way to make the price of GLD as low as we can. Almost time to hold short my friends and have a great weekend.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Next show on the silver screen

Is m2 the ultimate denomination of wealth?
A decade ago in 2004 silver was only $6 an ounce then in 2008 $9 now in 2014 you are looking at almost double what it was six years ago. Even the epic loss in 2011 did not seem to tarnish SLV as an investment. I would look at these numbers and agree that investing in silver is a sure bet. Floating rate notes (FRNs) cannot compare to silver trading, when buying silver it’s more of a stack and hold type of investment. The metals market cannot keep up the lows we see, the production in mining is well above the low numbers that we are trading at currently. Are industrial buyers just locking in a supply? We are seeing mass rollover of long contracts, unusual for industrial buyer’s positions. These seem to be a “deeper pocket” strategy, possibly metal manipulation. Silver is oversold when looking at a technical picture, last year looking at the RSI you see silver bottoming with lows right before it hit the lows June of last year. Has the spike in SLV just begun? We saw record sales last month, with the most volume ever seen in SLV COMEX futures, even shortages in the physical metal.
Could silver go lower? Some traders predict $15 others see the lows just a way for the SGE to buy discounted metals and horde them until they can control the new fix price. Who can really predict the drop or rise with all the global entities corrupting the market. We never thought we would see interest rates at zero, how do we know what is to come? Well look at history, look at human and market predictability, in no way will they just let metals go lower than we see now. This is why trading metals is really the way to go; yes holding the physical PMs is a great insurance for your own personal assets. Trading metal options is a true and complete strategy. While the cost of silver is so low I personally would stack and hold, however as it gets higher lets say over $49 I would switch to lead.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Composed of a board of governors, the reserve bank presidents and the seven members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet eight times a year to discuss and set interest rates, these decisions will control the money supply and the exchange value of the U.S. dollar. The FED who buys and sells government securities that can tighten or loosen the monetary supply this in return will raise or decrease interest rates.

Today they publicly announced the end of QE3 they perhaps may just call it something else, weigh-able aid, perceptible appease, or computable assist. They can call it what they want, but the one thing they will not really do is stop it. They announced their extraordinary positive outlook on our economy. I do not really know where or how they got their information; they said that they see solid job gains, lower unemployment due to under utilization of labor resources. That low energy costs will hold down inflation (back to my USD and oil theory) or that the inflation is somewhat diminished. I do not know what billionaire world they live in. While in the real world we are seeing that the FED is buying up the assets we supposedly own. We will never pay off our homes or land, we are taxed so much that until we are dead they own us.
If they raise the rates it will cause a huge disruption in the world of politics, and with elections so close it is hard to fathom that Obama would let them. How long till QE4? The real economy cannot and will not just be fixed by debt.

 

[fxmade2trade]

I started a new link under Depthtrade Options

 

[fxmade2trade]

Don’t Do The Crime If You Can’t Pay The Fine…
With Christmas right around the corner, we should see our ponzi numbers soaring upward creating a stronger than should be USD. Since 70% of Americans are consumers, with our numbers looking better than estimated Americans are feeling the full force of commercialism and the pressure to spend. This is always good for the USD; the low cost in oil and gas are fueling the cognitive dissonance between spending and saving. Even though personally, I cannot see the greenback sailing on the way it has for another long stretch. I do see why traders are eagerly selling off the GBP with what has been taking place in the UK.
The people in the UK are appalled at the reality that the banks have been paying hundreds of millions to avoid jail time, for manipulating the market, literally robbing them blind. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulation in the UK has fined five banks so far reaching the billions for “rigging” the foreign exchange rate and more. Leading the FCA enforcement is Tracey McDermott who has now been active on campaigning the need to do something more than just fine the bankers who seem to have jail immunity. McDermott read back bank statements from 2002 all the way to 2014, so far, bankers just don’t seem to care for instance, the multinational bank Barclays was fined for “rigging” lending rates, and the next day traders manipulated the gold market. This is not really a surprise they had been accused of money laundering in 2004, and again 2009 they settled with the government for a cool $298 million, not to mention tax evasion, rate fixing, the list went on even energy manipulation, this has been going on for years and into hundreds of billions in charges, yet no jail time. The only common factor is the hundreds of millions in fines paid per charge.
Is the FCA truly relying on the banks to have a moral outlook towards the criminal acts taking place? Or will real action take place? Investors and traders get weary when money handling is exposed the way it has been in the UK, with elections taking place in May of next year we should see many other scandals and hidden truths fueling the candidates arguments trying to sway votes.
Should we be following Iran is this fight sentencing our guilty bankers to death? Instead they let the GBP die along with faith in the financial system. When you cant trust the system you invest elsewhere and where better than the USD. Don’t get me wrong I defiantly don’t think our bankers are doing anything less of the described above, but I can bet they will hide it a little better.

 

[Depth Trade]

Does the 'data matta' ?

This week we are holding the following positions. Sold Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Gbp/jpy and bought Usd/Chf. These positions have played out as expected and are showing the following gains respectively +0.13%, +0.47%, +0.99% and +1.11% . What has moved these positions we ask? Let's go over some of the possibilities.

Thursday retail sales for the month of November were released with an increase of +0.28% over October. That increase definitely caught me off guard, I'm going to say the drop in oil was a huge reason behind this. Whether oil was dropped to punish certain countries or to boost our holiday sales is up for debate, either way we will see it as a short term gain. Unemployment initial claims also came in positive with a drop from 297k down to 294k, which is a positive move of 1.01% for the USD. What do I think of the unemployment numbers? ,well if you guessed ******** you are correct! I don't think any data could be more skewed than one where people are not counted after a certain amount of time or whatever the parameters are, but then again, I also would have never guessed that oil was going to come back down and the Indexes would be climbing to new highs. Yeah anything is possible, you just have to roll with it. If there are enough people to believe the data and move the market, jump on. Also looking at Michigan Sentiment that came in higher than the previous month. Not sure if you have looked at this one, but it is accumulated from a survey of 500 telephone calls then has a funky formula that rounds up numbers to get the monthly data score. O.k, this data is totally dependent on peoples emotional state, as far as I can tell there is close to zero numerical (my word) to back this up. Usually in the past I would have discounted this data based on those facts, I have learned that these markets at times will not follow any fundamentals at all, will totally move off peoples emotions states. Is it a reliable data release? Hell if I know.

We will continue to hold these positions for the next few days and see how we end up. It has only been 24 hours and the trades are doing awesome! More data is sure to be coming out this week and we'll be going over it in relation to the trades. I will be updating the blog in reference to the other side of the trades, the Euro Pound Swiss Franc and Yen.

Have a great day -Depth Trade

 

[Depth Trade]

...from caviar to corn dogs..

So.. where are our positions today? Woke up today to the unpleasant surprise of our profit having dropped quite a bit. Gbp/jpy retracted some 300 pips from it's high water mark. Eur/usd about 80 pips, Gbp/usd about 125 pips and Usd/chf some 60 pips. Some of our metrics used to signal a trade have slipped a little, but Gbp/jpy I still have as a strong sell.

Let us look at what could have moved these positions. In the Usd, housing starts were released weaker than the previous month -1.63% 1.045mil down to 1.028 mil. Housing permits dropped from 1.092mil down to 1.035mil, a drop of -5.22%. Looking over charts, the real momentum seems to have come from U.K. consumer price index data -0.23% month to month, which tracks the cost of living and came out positive for them. Along with that, the zew economic sentiment index that surveys 350 economists and analyst was released for both Germany and the Euro zone. This too came out stronger than previously, strengthening the pound against Yen and Usd. Which in turn did not help our Usd held against the Swiss Franc.

Over all I still feel positive about our positions, the pairs moved alot, enough to vent any volatility before the Financial Management Oversight Committee tomorrow. I have a gut feeling that the Usd is going to get stronger through the rest of the week no matter the outcome of interest rates. Not that I ever trade on my gut feeling, but the pairs did move as expected and has already retracted/ soaking up any trading that was going to happen against our high water mark.

Ultimately time will tell. Have a good day -Depth Trade

 

[fxmade2trade]

And they believe in Unicorns too...
Should we be anticipating this major change predicted by so many with the looming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that will be taking place this week? The fear of the FED’s decision to raise rates has the market bouncing out of control. We see much volatility on Wall Street, there is just no room for the FED to raise rates while the market is acting like it is. We seem to be so influenced with even the threat of the FED’s decision to raise or not. I get it, it is a big deal and some kind of change has to take place, I just do not think they really will raise those rates, if you look at the FED’s past history they do not really seem to have a clue what to do.
The FED thought adding a Zero Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP) was going to be a “fix-all-solution” and became a major liquidity problem. The FED thought that cheap money would entice big business to invest, thus strengthening growth with hope of refinancing and creating more fiat to spend or invest in the market, lifting asset prices knowing that only about half of Americans even hold mutual funds or stocks and wanted to follow in the footprints of the ever-emerging 1989 Japan. We are now seeing how that worked out for Japan, and we should be taking notes. The ZIRP has created a mass of bailouts and left people who had been saving their whole life with nothing, pensions and funds undervalued and many unable to even think about retirement. This caused mass miscalculations of capital and distorted the market for so many. The worst thing about it is that it gave the government lead way to borrow and spend in to the hundreds of trillions and produced a large amount of Quantitative Easing (QE). This has been a conscious decision that the FED has made knowing what was to come, so what makes you think they will really raise rates and fully quit QE?
The FED will not raise those rates and so far, they have an excuse for everything. They have blamed the financial crises, inflation, GDP growth, employment, then China then Europe, Wall Street, volatility, then wage growth or lack of. Now they blame the fact that the dollar is too strong, energy too low, at one point they even blamed the weather. It is ridiculous that we base our trading on their actions or lack there of, but we do, or should I say we base it more on the predictions of how the market can and will move. All this meeting will really be about is who will have to clean up this awful mess they have created and maybe they will have a new bank welfare system that can assist in the clean up of all the mispriced assets of high yield returns and piles of crap numbers and fake balance sheets. The FED has a big hole to climb out of, and the boomers are not going to just stand by as the FED makes it impossible to gain, soon we will see the affects of them pulling their money out of the market and banks, to invest in precious metals and physical holdings a more grounded investment. This causes major bubbles and we know what bubbles’ do, don’t we. Soon we will see what real inflation looks like and real volatility. For now with how things are going, they are not going to change too much and even if they did, it will not sway the strength of the USD anytime soon not with the holidays right around the corner and the skepticism of every other currency.

 

[Depth Trade]

F eds O penly M anipulating C hristmas

Wow! Talk about a nice turn around. Positions are looking awesome and with only a few days left in the week, I don't expect trades to retract at all. Current positions are as follows Eur/usd up +0.93%, Gbp/jpy up +0.95%, Gbp/usd up +0.86% and Usd/chf up +0.92%.

Really did play out as I suspected, of coarse rates were not going to be changed, it could have proven too disastrous going into Christmas. The way I see it 'they' want to keep the stock market up so people are in a great mood heading into the stores. Could you have imagined it rates would have been changed? Yeah one can give multiple reasons why rates having changed or not changed could have been good for the economy, but I think if they would have been changed, it would have manifested into instability/ insecurity. The smartest thing 'they' could have done and chose to do is nothing, geniuses. There was prior moves that were happening before FOMC had met, Consumer Price Index (c.p.i.) data was released which was positive for the Usd. C.P.I. excluding food and energy came in better than the previous release, including food and energy the index dropped even more. Obviously this is because oil/ energy had dropped so much, this in turn has dropped the price of manufacturing food. Low oil prices makes it cheaper for everything from farming to then trucking that across the nation, it spills over into everything.

Looking over what happened on a 3 minute chart, I would say zero rate change indicated the Usd financial landscape was fragile, so traders came in selling the Usd (makes sense), volume then dropped off and sellers then came in knowing all the buyers had been flushed out. Pushed the Usd into the stratosphere. Someone real smart would wait for volume from the sellers that had flushed out the buyers to die down, then buy

Strangely enough, the position that I thought was really going to move in our direction actually moved the least, even retracted some. That just goes to show one never knows 100% what is going to happen even when you have the experience and have analyzed the hell out of it.

Continue to hold these positions and we will re-evaluate in a few days to see whether to continue holding them.

Have a good day

 

[Depth Trade]

Flying over the Swiss alps

Hello traders, good day.

Positions have moved around, but overall account gain is about the same. Gbp/jpy and Gbp/usd have retracted some, while Usd against Chf and Eur have moved to our benefit. The huge move in our Usd/chf buy came after Swiss trade balance data was released which came out positive 3.87 bln vs 3.23 bln previously, a move of 0.21%. One would think "hey this is positive for CHF, the Usd/Chf should have dropped". You are absolutely right, but no CHF weakened. How? don't worry I will figure out some BS spin to make sense of it.

If we look at a chart of Usd/Chf, western Europe Tuesday of this week, a large amount of volume came in selling right after western Europe Monday volume had been buying. Factoring oscillation that can occur, the pair was poised for a strong move upwards. That along with a trend line starting at the pairs high for the week extending to next high after volume dropped, makes for a great buy entrance. Another factor could be the Swiss gold referendum from November 30. That had originally moved the Usd/Chf pair up in the preceding week. Which to me makes sense considering they would be holding less gold against there currency, hence a weakened currency. The following week that entire upwards move evaporated almost to the exact price the day before the referendum. What you had was trading participants saying the currency should be weak, then you had the opposition coming in saying no, pushing it back down. I would say most people thought the currency should be weaker, that played out and when volume died out after the gold hype. The "whales" came in on low volume and pushed the pair back down. Two weeks in the pair is down, both retail and manipulators played there hand and you have the pair moving back up where the majority of everyday people/ traders think it should be.

In conclusion, we could see a break out move higher since the highs of 0.9820 have been broken. Who in there right mind would sell at highs not seen in over a year? This could get crazy, this could go sky high!!

Have a great day.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Tis the season
Reports keep coming out, giving Americans this false sense of hope. With gas prices so low the little bit of loose change that the average person has in there pocket is making them feel overly confidant in their spending. Christmas is here and we see the manipulation of advertizing hypnotizing individuals to buy, buy, and buy. Many people in the U.S. live way beyond there means, so they spend credit, fiat that they do not have and probably never will. Most people have acquired a mass amount of debt, so much so that the average citizen’s family debt is over 52,000 and the savings per family is under $8,000 those numbers don’t add up to a stronger economy, yet they keep spending what they don’t have.
I say this because when I mention what a major impact Christmas has over the market, I just cannot stress how many positions one must understand to see just how this retail extravaganza affects the global economy. Christmas is not just a major American holiday all of Europe and may other countries indulge is this free fall of debt, Americans are just primarily consumers so we see it on a larger scale. While countries that Americans buy goods from seem to be doing better than average during this consumer holiday. For instance, Sweden that we buy jewelry and watches from and many high end items i.e. Rolex and Omega, not to mention the pharmaceutical companies that benefit from the stress of Christmas. So many industrial companies are depending on this season and rely on the holidays for a majority of their revenue. Like China, where we get everything from, all benefit from sales for the last half of the year.
During this festive gut-wrenching holiday that is driven by guilt and a need to spend, and credit cards to be used at over capacity. The need to buy presents for everyone you know is totally justified and expected before paying off your house or a your car or even your electricity bills, during this holiday all this spending seems like a reasonable idea and puts families in even more debt and panic heading into the new year. When I talk about debt, I am not just talking about individuals, I want to include huge corporations and government as well. We have acquired massive debt and the numbers are growing yet all these reports are trying to convince people that we are headed in the right direction. With Christmas here we don’t need distractions like ISIS or Ebola to distract us and the news is all puppies and babies, in fact they avoid any negativity during the holidays. They want to keep us blind to the truth, out of sight out of mind.
During the depressions in the past we have seen it first hand people lined up for aid and food, out in the streets begging for any help at all. Now we are sheltered from it, we have a food stamp card, government assistance personnel, whole offices dedicated to housing, disability and welfare. Free government money is the new normal.
An estimated 45 plus of Americans are on food stamps, that is about 15 percent of the population and I believe it is way more, but that is just what they report, more like 30 percent. Our children are growing up used to and accustomed to aid, and government assistance programs, they don’t see why it is a problem to be on assistance and don’t care about it at all. Most young women in America, single mothers depend and rely on that government check and while some do benefit from the situation, go to school and see it all as a temporary time and assistance in they’re life. Others make this a life choice and take full advantage of the help, just take what they can and are comfortable living off the government. While we stay blind to the numbers and are persuaded by the reports and the FED’s false confidence, energy manipulation and media. We sit back and spend just to enjoy a day with family and friends. Tis the season to sit back save and trade, take it from me, it may make your New Year a whole lot better.

 

[fxmade2trade]

Are you all paying attention, or just paying?



“Hope
Smiles from the threshold of the year to come,
Whispering 'it will be happier'...”
― Alfred Tennyson



New Years brings many emotions and ideas among the masses. For some a new beginning, a start over, even hope. For others it is a great excuse and a safe way to justify actions taken, or lack there of. You will see a breakdown of ways the market will benefit and turn around after the New Year. When it comes to financial New Year, only about 65 percent of countries have the fiscal year (financial year) identical to the calendar year. For the most part largely traded companies worldwide follow the calendar year, with a few exceptions in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan. For many countries there, fiscal year starts in April or July, those and many markets will not see the volume like the U.S. will come January first 2015. The U.S. had the first quarterly report come out and the numbers are looking great. Of course, they are positive that the second quarterly report will be even better. With no talk of interest rates from the FED, at least for now, we see a bullish market with all the holiday spending and anticipation in the “New Beginning”.

The National Association for Business Economics estimate a 3.1 growth in the next year. This has not taken place since 2005, since 2003 we had not seen economic growth like they reported, with the 5 percent yearly rate up from July to September this year. However the faster the growth the faster the FED will try to raise the interest rates that could mean more vested interest from overseas. The accession of capital would increase the USD, causing other countries to struggle destabilizing their currency, making it hard for the entities to pay back the borrowed greenbacks. This highlighting once again how disconnected and isolated the U.S. is from the ebb and flow that other countries are going through. Consumers in the U.S. drive growth, and favor the slow growth of other countries. The numbers being pumped out seem to be fuel for investors to find a safe place in the USD. With reports of the most jobs in fifteen years, saying America’s debt has declined to the numbers of 2002, ect.

Yet I live in the U.S. and just do not see it, I see unemployment everywhere and students with Master’s degrees unable to afford to buy a house, car or even find a job. Now all we will have to do, is let them brainwash us into believing that they do have a plan to clean up our world, straighten out the economy, that it is not all a ponzi scam to rig the markets, take our money and enable QE4 (Quantitative Easing, round/phase 4) as quietly as possible. While they convince us that of course, it has nothing to do with oil, money, or power. They seem to leave information out when reporting the statistics on economic growth, for instance how most of the GDP growth in the third quarter was spent on Obama care, they love to leave facts out.

How will the FED get away with more QE or a raise in interest rates? For starters they have to make the economy strong so QE4 is not an option or ineffective. The fear that the FED will lose control is evident as well as manipulation of the “fundamentals” doing whatever it takes to save the market and their own piles of cash. Now the world is watching there circus mesmerized and disgusted by the tergiversated attitude we see. While they go on deceiving us, socializing the losses and privatizing profits, and completely misrepresent there intentions. It is time to show and prove, and so far we have seen first hand what QE can accomplish.

They will have to straighten out Japan a little; because if Japan is the prime example for success of the FEDs great plan. Japan was whom the U.S. was ensuing for years. Japan the archetype for the great USA. The FED may need to go back to the drawing board, or The Doomsday Book, what ever works for them because Japans situation is just a denouement of QE. We should see the YEN getting stronger even though there own numbers have not been the best, they did take a hard hit with that large increase in sales tax last quarter. That raise took a hit on consumer spending, and wedged them into the recession they are experiencing. They are cleaning up the mess and doing what it takes to stimulate growth by Japans CB buying up financial assets and government bonds to advance inflation. Let us not be so naive the U.S. is heavily invested in Japan and many of the counties that are suffering and we do have an amazing amount of power with the reserve currency being USD and the petrodollar we will not let some fall too hard. Fast growth may not always be the best, we need to stabilize and adjust to the change, rapid rates sometimes cannot be controlled. The lower oil prices benefit the U.S. spending, creating a way for many people to save and invest in assets, or the market. Lower oil prices really benefit Europe and Japan by expanding the economy globally.