Conspiracy Trader

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
And they believe in Unicorns too...
Should we be anticipating this major change predicted by so many with the looming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that will be taking place this week? The fear of the FED’s decision to raise rates has the market bouncing out of control. We see much volatility on Wall Street, there is just no room for the FED to raise rates while the market is acting like it is. We seem to be so influenced with even the threat of the FED’s decision to raise or not. I get it, it is a big deal and some kind of change has to take place, I just do not think they really will raise those rates, if you look at the FED’s past history they do not really seem to have a clue what to do.
The FED thought adding a Zero Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP) was going to be a “fix-all-solution” and became a major liquidity problem. The FED thought that cheap money would entice big business to invest, thus strengthening growth with hope of refinancing and creating more fiat to spend or invest in the market, lifting asset prices knowing that only about half of Americans even hold mutual funds or stocks and wanted to follow in the footprints of the ever-emerging 1989 Japan. We are now seeing how that worked out for Japan, and we should be taking notes. The ZIRP has created a mass of bailouts and left people who had been saving their whole life with nothing, pensions and funds undervalued and many unable to even think about retirement. This caused mass miscalculations of capital and distorted the market for so many. The worst thing about it is that it gave the government lead way to borrow and spend in to the hundreds of trillions and produced a large amount of Quantitative Easing (QE). This has been a conscious decision that the FED has made knowing what was to come, so what makes you think they will really raise rates and fully quit QE?
The FED will not raise those rates and so far, they have an excuse for everything. They have blamed the financial crises, inflation, GDP growth, employment, then China then Europe, Wall Street, volatility, then wage growth or lack of. Now they blame the fact that the dollar is too strong, energy too low, at one point they even blamed the weather. It is ridiculous that we base our trading on their actions or lack there of, but we do, or should I say we base it more on the predictions of how the market can and will move. All this meeting will really be about is who will have to clean up this awful mess they have created and maybe they will have a new bank welfare system that can assist in the clean up of all the mispriced assets of high yield returns and piles of crap numbers and fake balance sheets. The FED has a big hole to climb out of, and the boomers are not going to just stand by as the FED makes it impossible to gain, soon we will see the affects of them pulling their money out of the market and banks, to invest in precious metals and physical holdings a more grounded investment. This causes major bubbles and we know what bubbles’ do, don’t we. Soon we will see what real inflation looks like and real volatility. For now with how things are going, they are not going to change too much and even if they did, it will not sway the strength of the USD anytime soon not with the holidays right around the corner and the skepticism of every other currency.
 

Depth Trade

Experienced member
1,848 98
F eds O penly M anipulating C hristmas

Wow! Talk about a nice turn around. Positions are looking awesome and with only a few days left in the week, I don't expect trades to retract at all. Current positions are as follows Eur/usd up +0.93%, Gbp/jpy up +0.95%, Gbp/usd up +0.86% and Usd/chf up +0.92%.

Really did play out as I suspected, of coarse rates were not going to be changed, it could have proven too disastrous going into Christmas. The way I see it 'they' want to keep the stock market up so people are in a great mood heading into the stores. Could you have imagined it rates would have been changed? Yeah one can give multiple reasons why rates having changed or not changed could have been good for the economy, but I think if they would have been changed, it would have manifested into instability/ insecurity. The smartest thing 'they' could have done and chose to do is nothing, geniuses. There was prior moves that were happening before FOMC had met, Consumer Price Index (c.p.i.) data was released which was positive for the Usd. C.P.I. excluding food and energy came in better than the previous release, including food and energy the index dropped even more. Obviously this is because oil/ energy had dropped so much, this in turn has dropped the price of manufacturing food. Low oil prices makes it cheaper for everything from farming to then trucking that across the nation, it spills over into everything.

Looking over what happened on a 3 minute chart, I would say zero rate change indicated the Usd financial landscape was fragile, so traders came in selling the Usd (makes sense), volume then dropped off and sellers then came in knowing all the buyers had been flushed out. Pushed the Usd into the stratosphere. Someone real smart would wait for volume from the sellers that had flushed out the buyers to die down, then buy ;)

Strangely enough, the position that I thought was really going to move in our direction actually moved the least, even retracted some. That just goes to show one never knows 100% what is going to happen even when you have the experience and have analyzed the hell out of it.

Continue to hold these positions and we will re-evaluate in a few days to see whether to continue holding them.

Have a good day :)
 

Depth Trade

Experienced member
1,848 98
Flying over the Swiss alps

Hello traders, good day.

Positions have moved around, but overall account gain is about the same. Gbp/jpy and Gbp/usd have retracted some, while Usd against Chf and Eur have moved to our benefit. The huge move in our Usd/chf buy came after Swiss trade balance data was released which came out positive 3.87 bln vs 3.23 bln previously, a move of 0.21%. One would think "hey this is positive for CHF, the Usd/Chf should have dropped". You are absolutely right, but no CHF weakened. How? don't worry I will figure out some BS spin to make sense of it.

If we look at a chart of Usd/Chf, western Europe Tuesday of this week, a large amount of volume came in selling right after western Europe Monday volume had been buying. Factoring oscillation that can occur, the pair was poised for a strong move upwards. That along with a trend line starting at the pairs high for the week extending to next high after volume dropped, makes for a great buy entrance. Another factor could be the Swiss gold referendum from November 30. That had originally moved the Usd/Chf pair up in the preceding week. Which to me makes sense considering they would be holding less gold against there currency, hence a weakened currency. The following week that entire upwards move evaporated almost to the exact price the day before the referendum. What you had was trading participants saying the currency should be weak, then you had the opposition coming in saying no, pushing it back down. I would say most people thought the currency should be weaker, that played out and when volume died out after the gold hype. The "whales" came in on low volume and pushed the pair back down. Two weeks in the pair is down, both retail and manipulators played there hand and you have the pair moving back up where the majority of everyday people/ traders think it should be.

In conclusion, we could see a break out move higher since the highs of 0.9820 have been broken. Who in there right mind would sell at highs not seen in over a year? This could get crazy, this could go sky high!!

Have a great day.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
Tis the season
Reports keep coming out, giving Americans this false sense of hope. With gas prices so low the little bit of loose change that the average person has in there pocket is making them feel overly confidant in their spending. Christmas is here and we see the manipulation of advertizing hypnotizing individuals to buy, buy, and buy. Many people in the U.S. live way beyond there means, so they spend credit, fiat that they do not have and probably never will. Most people have acquired a mass amount of debt, so much so that the average citizen’s family debt is over 52,000 and the savings per family is under $8,000 those numbers don’t add up to a stronger economy, yet they keep spending what they don’t have.
I say this because when I mention what a major impact Christmas has over the market, I just cannot stress how many positions one must understand to see just how this retail extravaganza affects the global economy. Christmas is not just a major American holiday all of Europe and may other countries indulge is this free fall of debt, Americans are just primarily consumers so we see it on a larger scale. While countries that Americans buy goods from seem to be doing better than average during this consumer holiday. For instance, Sweden that we buy jewelry and watches from and many high end items i.e. Rolex and Omega, not to mention the pharmaceutical companies that benefit from the stress of Christmas. So many industrial companies are depending on this season and rely on the holidays for a majority of their revenue. Like China, where we get everything from, all benefit from sales for the last half of the year.
During this festive gut-wrenching holiday that is driven by guilt and a need to spend, and credit cards to be used at over capacity. The need to buy presents for everyone you know is totally justified and expected before paying off your house or a your car or even your electricity bills, during this holiday all this spending seems like a reasonable idea and puts families in even more debt and panic heading into the new year. When I talk about debt, I am not just talking about individuals, I want to include huge corporations and government as well. We have acquired massive debt and the numbers are growing yet all these reports are trying to convince people that we are headed in the right direction. With Christmas here we don’t need distractions like ISIS or Ebola to distract us and the news is all puppies and babies, in fact they avoid any negativity during the holidays. They want to keep us blind to the truth, out of sight out of mind.
During the depressions in the past we have seen it first hand people lined up for aid and food, out in the streets begging for any help at all. Now we are sheltered from it, we have a food stamp card, government assistance personnel, whole offices dedicated to housing, disability and welfare. Free government money is the new normal.
An estimated 45 plus of Americans are on food stamps, that is about 15 percent of the population and I believe it is way more, but that is just what they report, more like 30 percent. Our children are growing up used to and accustomed to aid, and government assistance programs, they don’t see why it is a problem to be on assistance and don’t care about it at all. Most young women in America, single mothers depend and rely on that government check and while some do benefit from the situation, go to school and see it all as a temporary time and assistance in they’re life. Others make this a life choice and take full advantage of the help, just take what they can and are comfortable living off the government. While we stay blind to the numbers and are persuaded by the reports and the FED’s false confidence, energy manipulation and media. We sit back and spend just to enjoy a day with family and friends. Tis the season to sit back save and trade, take it from me, it may make your New Year a whole lot better.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
Are you all paying attention, or just paying?



“Hope
Smiles from the threshold of the year to come,
Whispering 'it will be happier'...”
― Alfred Tennyson



New Years brings many emotions and ideas among the masses. For some a new beginning, a start over, even hope. For others it is a great excuse and a safe way to justify actions taken, or lack there of. You will see a breakdown of ways the market will benefit and turn around after the New Year. When it comes to financial New Year, only about 65 percent of countries have the fiscal year (financial year) identical to the calendar year. For the most part largely traded companies worldwide follow the calendar year, with a few exceptions in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan. For many countries there, fiscal year starts in April or July, those and many markets will not see the volume like the U.S. will come January first 2015. The U.S. had the first quarterly report come out and the numbers are looking great. Of course, they are positive that the second quarterly report will be even better. With no talk of interest rates from the FED, at least for now, we see a bullish market with all the holiday spending and anticipation in the “New Beginning”.

The National Association for Business Economics estimate a 3.1 growth in the next year. This has not taken place since 2005, since 2003 we had not seen economic growth like they reported, with the 5 percent yearly rate up from July to September this year. However the faster the growth the faster the FED will try to raise the interest rates that could mean more vested interest from overseas. The accession of capital would increase the USD, causing other countries to struggle destabilizing their currency, making it hard for the entities to pay back the borrowed greenbacks. This highlighting once again how disconnected and isolated the U.S. is from the ebb and flow that other countries are going through. Consumers in the U.S. drive growth, and favor the slow growth of other countries. The numbers being pumped out seem to be fuel for investors to find a safe place in the USD. With reports of the most jobs in fifteen years, saying America’s debt has declined to the numbers of 2002, ect.

Yet I live in the U.S. and just do not see it, I see unemployment everywhere and students with Master’s degrees unable to afford to buy a house, car or even find a job. Now all we will have to do, is let them brainwash us into believing that they do have a plan to clean up our world, straighten out the economy, that it is not all a ponzi scam to rig the markets, take our money and enable QE4 (Quantitative Easing, round/phase 4) as quietly as possible. While they convince us that of course, it has nothing to do with oil, money, or power. They seem to leave information out when reporting the statistics on economic growth, for instance how most of the GDP growth in the third quarter was spent on Obama care, they love to leave facts out.

How will the FED get away with more QE or a raise in interest rates? For starters they have to make the economy strong so QE4 is not an option or ineffective. The fear that the FED will lose control is evident as well as manipulation of the “fundamentals” doing whatever it takes to save the market and their own piles of cash. Now the world is watching there circus mesmerized and disgusted by the tergiversated attitude we see. While they go on deceiving us, socializing the losses and privatizing profits, and completely misrepresent there intentions. It is time to show and prove, and so far we have seen first hand what QE can accomplish.

They will have to straighten out Japan a little; because if Japan is the prime example for success of the FEDs great plan. Japan was whom the U.S. was ensuing for years. Japan the archetype for the great USA. The FED may need to go back to the drawing board, or The Doomsday Book, what ever works for them because Japans situation is just a denouement of QE. We should see the YEN getting stronger even though there own numbers have not been the best, they did take a hard hit with that large increase in sales tax last quarter. That raise took a hit on consumer spending, and wedged them into the recession they are experiencing. They are cleaning up the mess and doing what it takes to stimulate growth by Japans CB buying up financial assets and government bonds to advance inflation. Let us not be so naive the U.S. is heavily invested in Japan and many of the counties that are suffering and we do have an amazing amount of power with the reserve currency being USD and the petrodollar we will not let some fall too hard. Fast growth may not always be the best, we need to stabilize and adjust to the change, rapid rates sometimes cannot be controlled. The lower oil prices benefit the U.S. spending, creating a way for many people to save and invest in assets, or the market. Lower oil prices really benefit Europe and Japan by expanding the economy globally.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
they just didnt have enough Greece to make it run

In 2012, Ebrahim Rahbari and Willem Buiter CitiGroup’s Chief Analysts came up with the term “Grexit” a blend of Greece, Euro, and Exit. Following the Financial crisis in Greece it was acknowledged that they might be leaving the Euro, predicting that more money lent would hurt the Euro and neighboring counties and the Grexit would be the only other option than differentiated government bond yields. In 2012, De la Rue a British money printing company was rumored to have been printing out the fresh drachma, which takes an estimated six months from time of order placement to printing on paper. These rumors and fear created a nine-month money withdrawing frenzy. It was estimated that Greek banks deposits fell by thirteen percent constructing a plan to impose control on the movement of money anticipating more panic with upcoming elections.
Convincing the people of Greece to leave the Euro to support a currency that will potentially collapse was not the only challenge. The economic depression that this would cause would end with slow economic growth for many, not to mention the hardship the Greek citizens would face. The Deutsche Bank stated in 2010 that Europe accounted for twenty-five percent of world trade; it was the largest trading partner between China and the United States. Speculation that European stocks would plummet fifty percent and other nation’s bond yields could widen 100 to 200 basis points leaving them unable to service their own sovereign debts.
The Euro has hit a nine-year low, for many counties and regions unemployment along with low inflation and a flat growth rate it seems impossible to reduce the debt levels that would help shift this trend. The Eurozone is better assembled than it was in 2010, The Eurozone can handle the exit without a massive hit because the privet sector only has about five percent of Greece’s debt, and the government is better equipped with bail out funds ready for such events unlike five years ago. However, this has nothing to do with the unpredictability of the people, investors, and stability that will directly affect and hurt the Euro and the ECB.
This has become not only a financial matter, it now is highly political. The upcoming elections on January 25 in Greece have sparked some not so inviting tones from France and Germany. With new prime ministers in Italy and France ready to reform their nations in ways that have gained total support of Germany’s Angela Merkel who has insisted European-imposed austerity on nations who really need the complete opposite. January will be a hard month for the Euro to regain at strength. So much is uncertain and unanswered. Alexis Tsipras may soon be the youngest Greek leader at the tender age of forty with a left-wing alliance Syriza on his side it seems that they deem to diminish the austerity measures, creating disorder among Eurozone members. If elected it is not certain that Greece would exit the Euro but it is implied. Could Greece leaving the Euro cause a ripple effect and open Pandora’s Box to many other counties assuming their role?
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
ECB Roadside assistance, AAA cant help

Two European Central Bank (ECB) meetings are coming up and traders should take note. The first is a meeting on January 7 on non-monetary policy, the other a very important meeting is on the monetary policy followed by a press release, and a maintenance period that will last until March 10 to guarantee that the appropriate funds are available for those decisions. Statements and leaks have indicated that the ECB is going to use Quantitative Easing (QE) to purchase an abundance of government bonds. Alternatively, they would have the central banks purchase so the country or countries individually would take on the risk of amount borrowed or owed separate from the interest. They could buy bonds that are AAA rated these have little to no risk of default. The AAA rating is issued by credit rating agencies; these bonds have the highest creditworthiness and guarantee liability. Only four companies were left with an AAA rating after the financial crises in 2008. It seems over and over we see failed attempts on monetary expansion and all the monetary measures have been used up. They keep trying to offset deflation by printing and borrowing while weakening currency and eroding the economy.

The ECB declined to comment, however Peter Praet, ECB chief economist had made many indications that these options are what is being considered. The Prospect of more QE has the EUR/USD dropping searching for any support. Wall street is feeling the impact hitting the biggest fall in the last three months. Commodity currencies also felt the panic, and U.S. treasury yields fell, many found a safe haven in the USD and JPY. Between the ECB meetings and the low numbers from Germany and possible withdraw from the Euro by Greece, the Euro has a long road ahead.
chaneyfxtrading.blogspot.com
 
Last edited:

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
A Bull caught in a Bear trap
As Obama ends the war in Afghanistan, another war is seen on the horizon, a currency war a fight to prevent a global depression, economic crisis, and financial crashes. Could it be just a coincidence that major market crashes, intermixed with wars and large recessions, depressions come every 7 years. After WW1 the United States dominated finance globally, the roaring twenties brought on unexpected growth economically and industrially, customer demand and new technology created a completely new culture and lifestyle, women for the first time could vote. We saw the influence of music and art change the post-medieval European tradition an existential experience. The change was massive, fueled by a supply side economic policy. The money spent brought back by soldiers acculturated into consumerism. The 1920s was a historical processes and cultural phenomenon a huge change from the post-industrial life they thought that Radio, automobiles, film, sports and electrification enabled for Americans to spend spurring a demand for consumer goods. . As Americans over spent the term "buying on margin" entered our vocabulary and in 1929 stock prices on Wall Street collapsed, putting millions out of work worldwide, The Great Depression or called Black Tuesday. 1932 The great depression at depth, 1939 beginning if WW2, 1946 recession and the end of WW2, 1953 Recession and the end of Korean war, 1060 Recession, 1967 Israeli -Arab war, stocks decline, 1973-1974 Arab oil stock causes a deep recession, 1980-1987 inflation and interest rates create a massive rescission 1994 stock market crash, 2001 bond crash and Mexican peso crash, 2008 do I even need to elaborate? Banks can’t cover the quantity of loans owed in bank credit in fact it is estimated that owed in more than ten times what is actually in bank reserves.
2008 was just a rehearsal for what is to come. A global depression has began, the decline in oil at such a fast rate, steel and cement following the decline with lack of demand and over abundance of supply. Many people are terrified about the market collapse, what they do not realize, the crash has already started. We have already seen this with many different currencies crashing, a result of low demand and fear. Many individuals and companies that are leveraged are bailing on their high yields. One would assume that this is some grand swindle by bankers or the FED perhaps the government it could be a JP Morgan next great idea. If or when this major crash takes place that we would think the powers that be would not let anything come between them and their large piles of fiat, they must have a master plan. This will be the time for the FED to come to the rescue and presume a hero like status forcing our only choice to induce QE4 and bank bail-ins. The reality of raising interest rates would be suicidal for the FED. Look at what the market did in December with just a threat of them raising rates. Fundamentally, the market is prime and ready for a crash. There is not an economic fundamentals to support the strong USD or stock prices, we have used cheap borrowed dollars and they will state, that this will be our recovery. Now that the USD is strong, we will see more and mutable risk assets stretching over nine trillion dollars ready to explode in our face. The energy issue is just the beginning. 1929, 2000 and 2007 were the only other times the S&P 500 higher than its historic average since 1882. Could this manipulation to lower oil, the market and raise the USD to generate a compound interest trap, sending the Eurozone into deflation.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
They issued VE ...verbal easing

Since 2008, employment gains have been declining, and just this year they have started to stabilize, effectively pushing the unemployment down with the solid employment gains. Gains in employment were the highest this last November than they have been in the last three years. Online ads for jobs increased, indicating employment gains. Surveys came back stating that many jobs were available and were much easier to obtain. The indicators were encouraging in the anticipation of the reports.

The numbers came back and for the most part, they looked good, then they looked a little closer. For eleven months straight the payroll increases have been up above 200k, those numbers have not been that strong since 1994. The Economy has generated the strongest number in new jobs since 1994, and showed 50k more than the forecasters predicted. The economy looks to be positioned for strong growth in 2015. In fact, the numbers were so good they almost deemed America fully employed by FED standards.

Despite all the optimism in employment, weak wages took the spotlight and the softness in earnings that fell drastically. There really is no obvious fundamental factor that can explain the numbers that were reported. They listed excuses and blamed a “seasonal fluke” in the retail trade sector. This time they couldn’t directly blame the weather. Job quality was not good as well, creating disputes as to what exactly these numbers could mean. Updated adjustments will of course be released further, most likely while some catastrophic event is taking place to distract us, from the outright manipulation of the numbers, as they always do.

These statistics and reports are just a reason to issue or delay the rise of the FEDs interest rates, or a justification of QE printing to monetize debt. These numbers and reports can be perceived many different ways. They have the ability to manipulate what information is presented and how the surveys are handled. The numbers just do not add up.

We have roughly 47 million people who get food stamps and inflation with food prices continue. Many people still live paycheck to paycheck, less than three percent of Americans make over 75k. Jobless claims rose to 299k. Jobs in the energy sector had the highest number of job cuts since 2012. With a population, around 316 million and 94 million are not in the labor pool how can we be close to fully employed. America is still in massive debt and the FED has many people waiting to see if they will raise their interest rates. The verbal easing Yellen keeps spewing has become intolerable. One person will say they are raising rates is what will happen then the other will say no that we will wait. The reality is that if they do raise the rates the trillions in bonds, trade derivatives would create a mass of bank runs and the same banks that control the FED wall St. banks would implode. It would also crush equity markets the many corporations that took massive loans to cover there debt and had to buyback shares. The impact would be devastating for the main players, most of all the FED would become unable to control the economic conditions. The FEDs policy is really designed to take wealth from the largest population and has systematically been wiping out the middle class. They do not really care about the numbers of employment or income they want to keep the current financial system just the way it is. The FED will protect it’s self and the banks, they know that foreign cash will shrink the long-term rates and they can always print to cover their own debts if need be.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
EUR/CHF Let's all just get A "Long"
The announcement by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reduce its interest rate came as a huge surprise, primarily because the previous reduction just took place within the last thirty days, this decision blind-sided the masses. The SNB dropped its three year long cap against the Euro, causing a staggering thirty percent increase in the Swiss Frank (CHF). This came as a shock to people, and rocked the Forex and equities market, we saw the CHF currency surge. In conjunction with ending the cap and lowered deposit rates they moved the rage of the International Exchange London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) from 0.75 and 0.25 percent to minus 1.25 and minus .25 percent on the three year range offers, administrated by the ICE Benchmark administration (IBA) significantly moving the five base currencys USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and of course the CHF. For me most surprising was the lack of discussion and focus on the LIBOR change, any shift in the LIBOR is a indicator of untrust within banking systems, so it seems odd that they would not be interested in this quite more than the cap. It is a huge indicator of something major about to take place, signs of volatility in the market and banks yearning for USD. The LIBOR evaluates the Central Bank interest rates and sets expectations on the global banking system daily, unlike the Federal Reserve (FED) that issues the rates weekly to raise or lower money supply and growth with federal funds. The LIBOR is on a international scale and releases what rates are, not just what the banks want them to be, this affects the U.S. Treasuries, the TED spread, Fiat, and high yield bonds. In turn, it then trickles down to futures contracts, variiable rate mortgages and USD interest swaps. The move in rage shows the Swiss don't plan to "widen" the balance sheet anymore after the estimated 495 billion-franc record loss for currency interventions they have covered.
The choice of the SNB was to protect the value of the CHF a defence against the growing fear, in regard to the Eurozones economy, uncertainty in Greece and the ongoing crisis in Russia. Fear was the primary reason for this unusual "surprise" foreseeing the upcoming decision next week by the European Central Bank (ECB) and discussion about purchasing government bonds and Quantitive Easing (QE) that would drastically affect the Swiss Economy. The Swiss ending the cap was not a easy decision to make, however, looking ahead to the potentially collapsing Euro with the CHF pegged to it, they deemed no other way. This could be a great move for the Swiss they then can come to the rescue of the EUR buying up assets with CHFs, or the opposite that they know the CHF would appreciate anyway and could not buy up the assets quick enough.
Price stability seems to be a thing of the past. The stoic Swiss Bank hit a record level of appreciation today with the decision to break away from the Euro. The Swiss have pumped billions since 2011 to defend the cap, it was a major surprise. The SNB could have kept purchasing Euro's, only if they could trust France and Germany to pay back the principal and interest on their bonds, with the Euro doomed for QE, the trust came to an end with the estimated 500 billion EUR owed. The Fear that the Swiss would lose more than the 15 percent they lost today made them have to move fast.
The worry now is jobs and wages but most of all the exports sold in foreign markets, watches, metals, chemicals, machinery and agricultural products. So they lower wages and reduce cost of goods. The Swiss are one of the worlds wealthiest countrys, since 2000 the CHF has more than doubled, in 2011 the average adult had an estimated 540,000 in USD, this development had direct correlation with the USD and CHF exchange rate. There are such a high number of wealthy in a small area that the statistics are swayed a little, so the typical individual averages 100,000 USD. Now only three percent of Americans make over 75,000 USD. This is why since 1992 the Swiss have fought for negotiations, "Bilateral" agreements that protect them as well as the security of the SNB and of course the taxation that makes the SNB appeal to so many. The fight was also over free movement of capital, persons, goods and services though the three of the four member states that make up the EU. When the European Economic Area (EEA) membership was denied they came up with a adjusted negotiation package and in 1999 it was approved.These agreements where Switzerland will take on aspects of the EU legislation, and gave them free trade within the EU. Overall, more than a hundred Bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU. The Swiss knew that following the framework of the EU would make them members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), that alone would gain economic strength of the two, since Switzerland's main trading partner is the EU. The U.S. is the primary an investment partner. The Swiss have always capitalized from their open trade, and communication with the EU. However the Swiss have fought hard to protect themselves and the CHF. So Why did they make this surprising decision today? Why cut themselves from the Euro altogether? They must have had a well calculated reason, perhaps the Euro will undergo some drastic fundamental change, they assumed that it is better to jump ship now. Something is coming and they saw it first, there numbers were great, why go negative?
I would love to know how the ECB and FED took this decision, years of price fixing gone in twenty seconds, they will have to make a sequel to the Doomsday book titled "The Death of Money". The ECB may now want to reconsider QE and print out francs. Unless the ECB knew Germany would never approve QE and this was the only way to debase the Euro without printing. However, I do not think they took into consideration how much it would move the market.
The SNB had to reestablish safety for the elite to park their trillions, if they only had a mass amount of gold to back their currency. I see why they fought the gold referendum so hard. The announcement hit the markets and the appreciation grew quick, we saw investors rushing to the CHF, as a safe refuge from the erratic forex storm. Looking at the charts the CHF it looked like a bomb went off. If you were holding a long position, happy new year to you, for others in short, (literally) I hope you have appropriate stops allocated for the erratic unforeseeable situation this was. This announcement sent fear though many for what is to come next. The SNB has a strong reputation for being reliable and consistent with their actions. The SNBs action was inconsistent with their reputation.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
"State of Division" Obama's 2015 pitch
For the most part I do believe that behind closed doors the squad of political show dogs all together are a league of corrupt teammates, stroking each other ego's and pushing for a common purpose and for the most part get along well and give a certain amount of respect when and where it is due . However after the State of Union address last night, big government appears to be more divided than ever. The frustration and hatred was tangible by the newly formulated republican clique, while John Boehner sat behind Obama awkwardly, refusing to applaud or stand as he showed obvious disagreeable facial expressions, holding back eye rolls as the president spoke. The pretentiousness of Obama's ego fueled by the energetic applause of the Democrats was glaring. Biden was Obama's cheerleader, hanging on every word with nods of approval constantly. It was hard to watch as Obama used a tactless approach of fabricating facts and commending himself with admiration then exaggerating the positive aspects of our nation.
It would be wonderful to think all that pizzazz and energy he has flooding back into our nation writing new bills, passing and vetoing laws all to better our nation and people. Sad fact is much of what he said was just plain inaccurate. We have been trying to shut down Guantanamo Bay since 2008, spending millions on each individual there, many anti American terrorists are proven to be recruited you are going to threaten a Veto or executive orders just do it! While we are happy to find jobs for our vet's coming home, and we should be happy we have been successful in that. On the other side, I could bet if we handed them a million dollars each or spent some of the capital it took to get the closing through congress, when he had majority in the Senate and in the House. All that money spent on our vet's and family's our patriotism would skyrocket out of control.
Obama didn't mention looking at our debt problem and finding a long term solution for it. There wasn't real talk of economic growth and equality when he brought up solutions. His points were wonderful and if he was campaigning this would have been a great speech, but to be so egocentric while in your last years, enough to say that he set aside more waters and public lands? Okay so lets focus on the "waters" because up until last year his four predecessors had set aside more acres than Obama. Even George Bush trumped him. Last year Obama expanded the Pacific Remote Islands National Monument from 87,000 to 490,000 square miles. It is all almost water and even though any "saving our land and setting it aside" is a good thing, the location in mid-ocean doesn't have much fishing, drilling or extraction of underwater resources for saving and making such a bold statement that he set aside the most in history. Not to mention that the government can sell them to to privet interests to pay off debt from military or war.
The power trip continued when the "growing" economy was brought up smiling as if he didn't know the facts. Our median household income is only four percent higher than it was December 2011 when we bottomed out and still almost five percent lower than December 2007 when the recession began. The hourly earning rose 1.7 percent in the last twelve months. research states that is still half the rate for achieving a "healthy Economy". New jobs in internet and many mid level jobs grow in general with the population. We are generating jobs, lower paying jobs. There are 1.7million less workers with full time employment than 2007 when the recession began. Since the end of the recession, the employment rate has been steady at around two percent, that is barely a head of inflation. The typical rate for a healthy economy is around four percent so it,s still below where we NEED to be. Seven years later and we have not recovered.
Energy was a big topic and of course we have been working on alternative energy since 1973, fracking was at an all time high until the oil crash, now the Federal Reserve will have to bail out the fracking debt. We can then blame it on the Earthquakes.
The parties that bankroll both sides all know none of these reforms he is proposing will pass. I would love to believe that he truly cares about the individual at the bottom, and all the high fives and his statement that "Crisis has Passed" . The only thing that has passed is the worlds media obsession to believe what you are telling the people to be factual. The reality is we went from six trillion to eighteen trillion in debt, yes the yearly "deficit" has been shrinking , the DEBT seems to never be addressed
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
Cause and effect is the basis of all currency trading. Currency exchange is supply and demand; fundamental analysis that examines economic factors can help determine supply and demand. You could spend years even decades learning all there is to know about Forex trading. You can apprentice “all knowing traders” dump money into technical systems, apps, and lessons. The best education is experience, if by chance (you will), you do come across the “all knowing trader” run the other way. A good trader is a humble one; they have made bad calls and lost a lot and also made great moves and gained. A humble trader will have more respect for the Forex market, including the individuals that follow their own way and want to learn all they can. The Forex market is a combination of corporate and private traders using different strategies, looking at different pieces of data that sway their moves. With more than eight major currencies and at least seventeen derivatives available for trading at any given time, finding the right information that will work for your strategy is key. More than seven pieces of vital information is released daily, regarding the eight major currencies. This information can be about the country’s inflation, deflation, trade balance, payroll, production, sales, or banks. Specific information can be much more important and move the market causing high, medium, or low volatility. We can download many different types of economic calendars that highlight all of these aspects even what the rate the volatility will be upon the reports release. Timing is also another thing to consider. The time when the information is released in another country can create a trend quickly causing momentum unable to sustain even the right moves. Even if you do your research, the risk of reversal is high due to the volatility.

U.S. economic releases are looked at the most since the USD is involved with 90% of all trades. Unfortunately, the United States focuses on corruption everywhere but America. The correction in the reports will come regardless of what they report now. If you are not one of the sheep believing that the economic data reports are accurate, you can predict what the outcome of those reports will be.The real indicator is price.You can listen to the rumors or buy and sell fact. Focusing on too much on news, propaganda, and fundamentals can damage your performance.The major players are not concerned with the facts or reports based on what they want to happen.

It is important to watch how the market is moving and just what information is making an impact. What factors move the market? I mentioned before Fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the Forex market. Technical analysis on the other hand predicts patterns, studying price levels, volume, and then forecasting the pair and what direction they will move. Information is the key, and your own knowledge is truly power you have. Unfortunately, the United States focuses on corruption everywhere but America.If you are not one of the sheep believing that the economic data reports are accurate, you can predict what the outcome of those reports will be. If you are one or know one of the major players on Wall Street you may be able to gain your own what they call a “Whisper Number” this number is the earnings per share (EPS) unpublished and unreleased forecast. These numbers are much more regulated and confidential now days. However, major corporations and the extremely wealthy still get tips here and there. You can also generate your very own Whisper Number, just by your own research, information, company financials, and market trends. You can even use instinct or gut feelings when it differs from the consensus forecast you can set your trades appropriately to gain an edge. Forex trading is not based on logic, it is primary a price action strategy, gauging the directional future of the market. You should definitely incorporate all the information given to position yourself correctly.

A study on just how long information from the news affects the market was done by Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons in 2004. It showed that it takes hours if not days to absorb the effect on returns and order flow, it generally occurs in the first or second day and really pronounced by the third day lingering till the forth day. This study was also done in 2004. Technological advancements and instant data are much more accessible. You can see the effect happen quickly looking at the volatility. Volatility is crucial to understanding the way the market moves. How much a pair moves by the minute, hourly, daily, and long volatility vary drastically? Monitoring the volatility is constant, and can tell you how you should be trading. Volatility is much more useful when measured by the fundamental and technical analysis. Conditional bias will happen, politics, and other elements will throw off any predictions they have. Developing your own strategy is the key to achieve or sustain profitable trades.

Blogger: Adrienne DeMarco
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
American Psycho, coming to a government near you!
The last man standing could be the new theme for our global leaders as we witness our alias and enemies destroy each other. Most men would take a beating once or twice verses being a slave for life. Most of the governments globally are slaves, slaves to the banker cartel looking for anyway out from the grips they hold on each country’s destiny. Now we are slaves to technology, and media as a whole by the large corporations, banks intelligence agencies, and such. We would love the idea that our people and economy will be saved, saved by our next leader or government. This is also the premise of fairy tales and they too do not exist. Our world is motivated by money and power, bailouts, loans, all free money they don’t care about the restructure of economy or government. We are brainwashed and persuaded to believe that our vote and what happens in our world still counts when it does not even matter at all. The economic model of our world is broken; our economic and political systems are not working. In the US, our financial system is leveraged out much than in 2008. Yet our “leader” is still convincing us that we are doing better than ever. Our true reality is that most of our world leaders we know and see are just the pawns and do not have any control over the “masters” playing the game. Hope is a strange thing and really that is all you have… nothing else is on the table for us. Our world is being run by an anonymous dictatorship, with obvious dictatorial traits. The people our leaders represent have little or nothing at all; in common, they are not even the one percent. Do you really think that they are fighting for the masses? The UN, NATO, IMF, FED, or the World Bank are fighting for themselves and power, not us and the economy. They are fighting for supreme power, draining every source and growing more powerful.

Power is a complicated thing. In Physics power is defined as the rate of doing work equivalent to the amount of energy consumed per unit of time. Power itself is defined as the ability to act on, with the capability of doing or accomplishing something. The fact is, Power is so attractive that many people can and will be completely influenced by the attractiveness of it. The ability to do, control, command, and sustain it, are all aspects of power. Women are proven much more attracted to powerful men and are generally unaware of the power enticement correlation. Beyond the power attraction lays a deeper oddity. What other kind of people power attracts. In the business world, we have found most powerful jobs will attract a specific kind of individual, they are called psychopaths and sociopaths. Many studies have proven this over and over again. It is scary to think that one out of every two hundred humans is a psychopath. Most psychopaths have no idea they have anything wrong with them at all and will never seek help. Forbes did an article once on the top ten jobs that attract psychopaths, very disturbing but it makes sense. Most were all power positions with out need for empathy. This does not mean that one of every two hundred people will go on a killing spree or have disturbing remains in their freezer. It just means that they lack empathy or emotions with a antisocial behavior, but all have complete disregard for anyone else but themselves. It is a personality disorder that makes it so scary not just a lack of empathy, they tend to have a superficial charm with egocentric behavior, they are highly persuasive and just love and feed off power. Perhaps those jobs can even create psychopaths. The question is how many are in power of us on a global scale? All of them.
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock