A crime in Crimea?

Mr. Charts

Legendary member
Messages
7,370
Likes
1,200
So, is it a crime in Crimea or like the Sudetenland, Anschluss or the self-determination we in the West normally applaud?

Crimea today, South and West Ukraine tomorrow?
 
According to most of the Western media I have read (which isn't sympathetic to the Russians by any means), there appears to be a pretty universal consensus that the results of the referendum, flawed as it might be, do represent the will of the majority of residents. If that is indeed the case, is this not self-determination at its finest? Is it not an absurd idea that it's the Ukrainian Constitution that makes the result of this vote illegal?
 
According to most of the Western media I have read (which isn't sympathetic to the Russians by any means), there appears to be a pretty universal consensus that the results of the referendum, flawed as it might be, do represent the will of the majority of residents.
Times do change then because in 1991 more than 90% voted for the Declaration if Independence on an electoral turnout in excess of 80%. I have no data for the voting specifically for Crimea and is does naturally enough have significantly stronger logistical ties with Mother Russia quite apart from the cultural and geographical ones. So there may well be a genuine consensus to return, but under the Declaration of Independence there is no legal facility for any region to carry out such a referendum let alone have any international recognition.

If that is indeed the case, is this not self-determination at its finest? Is it not an absurd idea that it's the Ukrainian Constitution that makes the result of this vote illegal?
Not sure if you're serious, but it's the equivalent to Cornwall holding a referendum to become part of Southern Ireland. There's no legal basis for that either.
 
So 60% of the population are Russians ?
 
Last edited:
Times do change then because in 1991 more than 90% voted for the Declaration if Independence on an electoral turnout in excess of 80%. I have no data for the voting specifically for Crimea and is does naturally enough have significantly stronger logistical ties with Mother Russia quite apart from the cultural and geographical ones. So there may well be a genuine consensus to return, but under the Declaration of Independence there is no legal facility for any region to carry out such a referendum let alone have any international recognition.
Yes, I understand that there's no legal facility in place for this vote, and others like it. However, this is pretty murky stuff that we're venturing into, as the principle of self-determination is established in international law as a fundamental human right. Thus, you could claim that it prevails over considerations of territorial integrity. Again, there seems to be a lot of division within the legal profession over this, but it would make sense to me, given it's enshrined as a "fundamental human right".
Not sure if you're serious, but it's the equivalent to Cornwall holding a referendum to become part of Southern Ireland. There's no legal basis for that either.
Re legal basis, see above. Catalonia seems to be proceeding towards a self-determination referendum, it seems, regardless of the objections of the Spanish government and the Constitutional Court. It appears that a whole variety of world govts and leaders who have an issue with Crimea, don't have a problem with Catalonia. I wonder why this might be? And let's not even talk about Kosovo and the International Court of Justice opinion, as that's, supposedly, "unique" and special.
 
Last edited:
Yes, I understand that there's no legal facility in place for this vote, and others like it. However, this is pretty murky stuff that we're venturing into, as the principle of self-determination is established in international law as a fundamental human right
There’s murky and there’s murky. There is still no clear definition of ‘nation’ or what groups can legitimately claim that right. So as rights go, as with most rights, it’s whatever you can grab.
 
well, whatever you believe, freezing russian assets is going to get some attention..
Unlikely. Putin’s been through it all before with Georgia. Water off a duck’s back. Plus he sees how the EU and the US respond (or not) to far more significant abuses of international law and human rights all across the globe. He has very little to worry about and this is a real crowd pleaser back home.
 
There’s murky and there’s murky. There is still no clear definition of ‘nation’ or what groups can legitimately claim that right. So as rights go, as with most rights, it’s whatever you can grab.
Indeed, in which case why should we, a priori, treat some grabbers differently than others? That is, if we're talking about purely moral and legal considerations, rather than realpolitik.
Unlikely. Putin’s been through it all before with Georgia. Water off a duck’s back. Plus he sees how the EU and the US respond (or not) to far more significant abuses of international law and human rights all across the globe. He has very little to worry about and this is a real crowd pleaser back home.
I would disagree with you about Georgia. It's reasonably well-established that it was Mikheil Saakashvili who, in a bid to preserve Georgia's "territorial integrity", decided to change the status quo in South Ossetia in a rather aggressive and unmistakably violent fashion. Given the history of the conflict and the recorded cases of human right abuses by the Georgian paramilitaries in 1991-92, South Ossetia's bid for independence could be easily supported as "remedial". Under these circumstances, I fail to see how Russia could have behaved otherwise.
 
Indeed, in which case why should we, a priori, treat some grabbers differently than others? That is, if we're talking about purely moral and legal considerations, rather than realpolitik.

I would disagree with you about Georgia. It's reasonably well-established that it was Mikheil Saakashvili who, in a bid to preserve Georgia's "territorial integrity", decided to change the status quo in South Ossetia in a rather aggressive and unmistakably violent fashion. Given the history of the conflict and the recorded cases of human right abuses by the Georgian paramilitaries in 1991-92, South Ossetia's bid for independence could be easily supported as "remedial". Under these circumstances, I fail to see how Russia could have behaved otherwise.

This is correct about Georgia . The Russians actually behaved just as any nation state would, and, unpopular as this is to most Western perceptions, they have also
moved in an understandable way with Crimea.
I realise this is contrary to what our governments and media say, but if you poke a bear in the eye you are likely to get your head bitten off.
The Russians are correct in Crimea and Georgia. However, let's hope they don't attempt to dismember the rest of Ukraine. Just being objective here.
 
If we're going to fit post hoc a rationale to Georgia and Crimea, is it OK if we invade Poland again? There are German interests that we feel need our protection...
 
If we're going to fit post hoc a rationale to Georgia and Crimea, is it OK if we invade Poland again? There are German interests that we feel need our protection...
There is no fitting of post hoc rationale, certainly not in the Georgian case. The facts are reasonably clear, now as they were originally in 2008. In Crimea, we're not yet in the "post" phase, so let's wait...

As to "you" invading Poland, I dunno if it's OK. Which part of Poland is seeking self-determination and independence?
 
As to "you" invading Poland, I dunno if it's OK. Which part of Poland is seeking self-determination and independence?
The part that's asking us for help to protect our German interests. Just kidding. Thanks for the reasoned debate - it's just a little too late in the day for me to do the necessary research to make a sensible response. AKA you beat the Kvasse out of me - please invade and annex me.
 
Taken a punt on Brent Crude May. Buy £1 @ 106.65. Stop loss - 100 points. Bring on the war!
 
Last edited:
Hank Paulson (previously known as Frank) in a recent interview claimed that after the 2008 debacle the Chinese were a little edgy about their exposure to Fannie & Freddie Bonds to the tune of I think it was around $1.7tn. Although Paulson was getting a mauling in the senate he was giving the Chinese assurances that their debt would be underwritten by the US government. It transpired that the Chinese were at that critical time approached by the Russians who suggested that between them they could conduct a bear raid on the US markets by dumping their F & F Bonds. The Chinese allegedly declined valuing their investment more than giving the US a kicking.

My point being that although these are THE major league countries in the world, they will act like little children regardless of the fallout or cost. The currently low expectation of any significant escalation is misguided in the extreme.
 
Last edited:
Top