Short Russia?


Well-known member
Responses to existing sanctions and expectations of responses to further sanctions against Russia will potentially lead to net outflow of a conservatively estimated $60-80bn in the medium term (3 months). Given the already shaky nature of Russia's economic health it'll only take an additional $20-30bn on top of that to push them into recession.

With around 25% of Russia's gas being shipped to Europe through Ukraine and no immediately available alternative from an infrastructural perspective, you can understand why Putin put in the call over the weekend. Medvedev's Crimea capers today are more Russian smoke and the Kerry/Lavrov 'stalemate' was a given as an opening gambit - from both sides. Nobody wants it to look too easy.

Getting in before the event was smart, but getting in short now would not be the most sensible plan of action.

The thing is, it's not what is happening right now, but the things which people care about which drives the markets. That's why bubbles last longer than is logical or rational. For me to make money, it's the degree of separation I am able to discern between the two where I can take a view and build a trade to express my views.

Can't remember who said it, but something along the lines of fundamental analysis not being about forecasting the weather a week from now or even tomorrow; it's looking outside the window right now to see if it's sunny or if it's raining. The fundamentals kick into the markets after the event(s). To suggest markets price all information is correct, but they price information from the human consciousness domain - not the fundamental one. Extremely efficient from the human perspective and delightfully inefficient from the fundamental perspective.