There is a “real and present danger” that Vladimir Putin will launch a campaign of undercover attacks to destabilise the Baltic states on Nato’s eastern flank, the Defence Secretary has warned.
Michael Fallon said the Russian president may try to test Nato’s resolve with the same Kremlin-backed subversion used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
A murky campaign of infiltration, propaganda, undercover forces and cyber attack such as that used in the early stages of the Ukraine conflict could be used to inflame ethnic tensions in Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia, he said.
The military alliance must be prepared to repel Russian aggression “whatever form it takes”, Mr Fallon said, as he warned that tensions between the two were “warming up”.
The Defence Secretary spoke as Ukrainian troops pulled out of the besieged town of Debaltseve yesterday after it was stormed by pro-Russian rebels.
The retreat was a severe defeat for Ukrainian troops, who had been encircled in the strategically important town by rebel forces since last week. The European Union called it a “clear violation” of the Minsk peace plan.
Mr Fallon said the latest negotiations to forge peace in Ukraine look similar to earlier doomed efforts. Talks in Minsk, Belarus, last week had failed to see Russia hand over control of the border.
David Cameron said that if Russia does not stop destabilising Ukraine then Europe must make it clear that Moscow faces economic sanctions for “many years to come”.
The Prime Minister said Europe could not “turn a blind eye” to events in Ukraine, where he said “effectively one country is challenging the territorial integrity of another country”.
“Those Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine, they are using Russian rocket launchers, Russian tanks, Russian artillery, you can’t buy this equipment on eBay, it hasn’t come from somewhere else, it’s come from Russia and we know that,” he said.
The former Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia could be next to face a Russian-backed campaign to destabilise them, Mr Fallon warned.
The number of Russian military flights probing Baltic airspace has trebled in the past year, according to Nato. Estonia says that one of its security service officers was kidnapped on the border last year and is being held in Russia.
Many defence analysts have questioned whether Nato’s eastern members could cope with a covert campaign similar to that used in Ukraine last year — such as irregular troops, cyber attack and skilful propaganda being used to exploit internal tensions with ethnic Russian minorities.
Mr Fallon said: “It’s a very real and present danger. He was testing Nato all last year, if you look at the number of flights and the maritime activity.
“He flew two Russian bombers down the English Channel two weeks ago. We had to scramble jets very quickly to see them off. It’s the first time since the height of the Cold War, it’s the first time that’s happened.
"That just shows you, you need to respond, each time he [Mr Putin] does something like that, you need to be ready to respond.”
A sharp increase in Russian defence spending is “clearly worrying”, he added.
“They are modernising their conventional forces, they are modernising their nuclear forces and they are testing Nato, so we need to respond.”
He went on: “There are lots of worries. I’m worried about Putin. There’s no effective control of the border, I’m worried about his pressure on the Baltics, the way he is testing Nato, the submarines and aircraft.”
Asked if the world was facing a new Cold War, he said “It is warming up, you have tanks and armour rolling across the Ukrainian border and you have an Estonian border guard who has been captured and not yet still returned.”
Britain has so far refused to arm the Ukrainian government.
Mr Fallon said: “We are supplying non-lethal equipment. At the moment, our view is that lethal would escalate the conflict, but we will continue to keep that under review.”
