Trading is hard work. Becoming a profitable trader is even harder. So how can traders move from average to successful? I’ve found the best way to help those completely new to trading is to explain the amount of time and dedication required to become a profitable trader with sports analogies. For instance, in baseball if it’s the first time you experience a 100mph fast ball, you’re going to swing and miss. But if you’re dedicated, work hard and practice, you’ll be able to anticipate the 100mph pitch and knock it out of the park. The most successful athletes work hard and constantly seek out ways to improve their performance, and those same principles apply to successful traders.
As a trader with more than 10 years of experience on the...
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Articles
Why Point & Figure Charts?
Point & Figure (P&F) charts are one of the simplest and clearest ways to determining the best time to buy and sell shares. The P&F system represents one of the oldest approaches to share market trading. This method takes the technical analysts approach while monitoring supply and demand for each share and the charts are designed for long-term trading so that the time and cost of trading shares is minimal.
How are Point & Figure Charts Constructed?
In P&F charts both axis are dependent on price rather than one being based on price and the other on date. The key unit in a P&F chart is the point, or unit of price. The point size may change in value along the y-axis to provide consistent and relative price...
There are two prices that are critical for any investor to know: the current price of the investment he or she owns, or plans to own, and its future selling price. Despite this, investors are constantly reviewing past pricing history and using it to influence their future investment decisions. Some investors won't buy a stock or index that has risen too sharply, because they assume that it's due for a correction, while other investors avoid a falling stock, because they fear that it will continue to deteriorate.
Does academic evidence support these types of predictions, based on recent pricing? In this article, we'll look at four different views of the market and learn more about the associated academic research that supports each...
Not long ago, I was spending time with a friend of mine who I have been close with since we were children. For years, anytime my career comes up in conversation, he insists that trading is nothing more than gambling. I actually get this question from others at trading events as well. It is a very hard question for me to answer because I think the whole question is wrong.
Whether you are a trader, gambler in a casino, Pepsi buying advertising space on a network, retail store owner, casino, car dealer, franchise owner, street vender, someone who buys and sells things on eBay, and so on, YOU ARE A SPECULATOR at some level. The trader takes on risk in a market for a potential reward. The gambler risks a $5.00 chip on the black jack table...
Getting Started Swing & Position Trading Day Trading & Scalping Different Types of Market Orders: Using Each for the Best Fills
I was recently asked about stops and different types of market orders. They were good questions and they reiterated to me the fact that I work with people that range from seasoned trading professionals to those testing the futures trading waters for the first time.
One thing I always like to point out to the less-experienced traders: There are no "dumb" questions and there is no shame in being inexperienced. Every single futures trader that ever walked the face of the earth has been inexperienced at one point.
This section on types of market orders, including stops, may be a "refresher" feature for the more experienced traders, and will likely be a more valuable feature for the traders newer to this fascinating field.
Market Order...
The decision to trade online or through a full service broker will undoubtedly make a large impact on your bottom line. However, the impact may or may not be what you had in mind. If you aren't ready to begin placing your orders online on your own, despite saving money on commission it may be the most costly mistake that you ever make.
While commission is baggage, a slightly higher rate it may be worth every penny assuming that your broker is truly giving you what you are paying for - reliable and efficient execution along with quality guidance in strategy and analysis.
Hopefully this article will open your eyes to the realities of transaction costs. While experienced traders should look for low rates with quality service, novice...
So you want to work in the City?
There is no shortage of ambitious young individuals who dream of, and aspire to, a successful career in the City. Images of Rolex-wearing, Porsche-driving twenty-somethings living in their Docklands bachelor pads does nothing to stop the swell of wannabe City Slickers.
But just how real are these images? More importantly, how can I get to work in the City, and where do I start? What are the upsides to a career in high finance? What are the downsides? Which are the best markets to work in? What qualifications do I need?
Those images born from the movie which made the slick-haired Gordon Gecko famous have undoubtedly created one major drawback for any ambitious young individual wanting to work in the...
"Rather than maniacally trading volatile pairs multiple times in a single day, rule-based discretionary traders are now holding onto open positions longer, relying more on planning and patience rather than fast reflexes."
Rule-based discretionary traders are among the best traders on this planet. The trading strategy I want to explain here is a rule-based discretionary system. Every trader will face both winning and losing streaks alternatively, so the key to trading successfully is to make more money during a winning streak than you lose during a losing streak.
It's very disturbing that so many traders find it difficult to survive in the markets. The issue is; even if you're disciplined, it'll be difficult for you to survive with a...
Swing & Position Trading Trading Systems Day Trading & Scalping What You Need to Know About Choosing a Broker
Aside from charting tools and market research, there are two important but often overlooked decisions for a trader to make; choosing a brokerage firm and a specific broker. Each of these decisions are capable in having a profound impact in your overall trading results and you owe it to yourself to take the time to make an educated judgment.
Choosing a brokerage firm
Deciding on a brokerage firm is a significant decision and shouldn't be taken lightly. Before committing to a firm it is imperative that you research their services, experience, trading platforms and commission structure but more importantly whether your trading style and personality will be compatible. For example, a beginning trader shouldn't look to a deep discount...
PM: = Paul Mullen (Interviewer)
AR: = Alan Rich (Stock Trader, Coach & Mentor)
You can listen or download this interview by clicking this link:
Alan Rich Interview mp3
PM: Hello to everyone from Trade2Win, this is Paul Mullen. I've today got Alan Rich with me and we're going to be talking about trading, probably NASDAQ stocks more than anything else. Alan is a coach and a mentor and has been trading a long time. He has his own website and you can contact him there, at www.alanrichtrading.com. We'll be talking today about what's going on. A warm welcome to Alan. I'm glad that you've agreed to do this and I'd just probably like to ask you the first question, and that is why is it you trade NASDAQ stocks?
AR: I think I've been trading...
Through my years of trading, one thing I have found is that one strategy does not fit all. We all have different risk tolerances and monetary goals. One of my goals in each E-mini Futures class I teach is to show the students a strategy and have them take it home and use it as a foundational starting point for defining their own strategy. My style is to follow the trend and enter on pullbacks. You could call this style Intraday Swing trading. This works for me because it fits my personality, patience and discipline. I understand that trading is a business dealing in probabilities and that it takes a series of trades to make a trader, not just one or two trades. However, with that said, not everybody trades like me. Of course, that is a...
As a trader, one of the key things that I try to consciously do is to cultivate my instincts by talking with other traders and investors as often as possible. It still amazes me how large the divergence of opinion that exists regarding what people believe will unfold as we enter the new millennium. Many very respected names are literally predicting an economic earthquake that will measure a 10 on the Richter scale while others having looked at the exact same research claim that the consequences will be very mild. As a trader I have to evaluate the data and develop a strategy that I feel not only gives me an edge but allows for a great deal of error while still being low risk!
In his book, "Business Without Economists" author William J...
In order to be a successful trader - and not fall into the trap of so many - it is important to take good advice and remember that, sometimes, others do know best! Here are the Top 10 tips for successful trading. Follow them closely (or at least to an extent) and you should stand a good chance of becoming an accomplished spread bettor.
ALWAYS stay in control
Winners are always in control; both mentally and emotionally.
Losers aren't. Losers are sometimes guided by emotions - This will lead to you making bad decisions!
'Plan the trade, trade the plan'. Always stick to the original plan. Deviations will invariably lead to an error.
Take responsibility for results
Winners are can sometimes lose! But most of the time they win and...
The end of 2007 was characterized by extreme values in various indicators of stock market analysis. In this article I will review and analyze four of them. I will use the term "indicator" here not necessarily according to the technical analysis jargon but rather as a set of clues (either measurable or not) under the same idea which can reveal specific internals of the stock market and imply bullish or bearish projections.
The First Indicator: Commercials Versus Small Speculators
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases weekly information known as Commitment of Traders (or simply COT) report about various markets which can be used to approximate the net open interest for futures and options in each of the following three...
Introduction
In this article we'll take a look at two related practices that are widely used by traders called Backtesting and Data Mining. These are techniques that are powerful and valuable if we use them correctly, however traders often misuse them. Therefore, we'll also explore two common pitfalls of these techniques, known as the multiple hypothesis problem and overfitting and how to overcome these pitfalls.
Backtesting
Backtesting is just the process of using historical data to test the performance of some trading strategy. Backtesting generally starts with a strategy that we would like to test, for instance buying GBP/USD when it crosses above the 20-day moving average and selling when it crosses below that average. Now we could...
Are you like many investors who go to sleep each night feeling safe and secure because their investment portfolios are properly diversified? Conventional diversification attempts to decrease risk and offer more opportunity for the average investor. However, when we observe conventional diversification protocol through the objective eyes of pure supply and demand, it becomes quite clear that conventional diversification actually increases risk and decreases opportunity.
The Foundation: Quantify Supply and Demand
As I have repeated so many times, the movement of price in any and all free markets is a function of the laws of pure supply and demand. Low risk/high reward buying and selling opportunity emerges when this simple and straight...
We take a basic look at what Swing Trading is and how to use it in trading.
Trading Categories
In our opinion, there are three broad categories that can be used to classify all trading methods. These categories are based around the amount of time a speculator holds his or her position in the market. These classifications are described below:
Short-term - Traders hold positions from a matter of seconds to several hours but rarely longer than 1 day. Examples: Day Traders: Scalping, momentum breakouts.
Medium-term - Once a position is held for longer than one day it can be classified as a medium term or swing trade. Traders hold positions from several days to weeks. Examples: Technical and fundamental swing traders.
Long-term - Traders...
If "volume precedes price" as is often suggested then it should be possible to apply analytical techniques to certain volume attributes that will have some predictive capabilities with regard to future price development. Using various techniques that come under the general heading of money flow analysis it becomes feasible to decide whether a particular security is being accumulated or distributed. A security that is undergoing accumulation can be expected to gain in price and a security that is displaying the characteristics of distribution will probably offer opportunities on the short side. Equally, it can be very informative to see whether there are divergences between the security's price behaviour and its volume behaviour.
The...
A look at the yield curve and why it is said to be the most accurate forecast of looming recession.
I have written about the yield curve more than any other single topic in the almost six years of writing. There is a justifiable reason to pay attention to the yield curve. In certain very specific circumstances, it has been the single most reliable predictor of recessions. Let's examine what those circumstances are.
First, the yield curve is a graphic depiction of the relationship between the yield on bonds of the same credit quality but different maturities. Normally, you expect to get more interest paid to you for holding a longer maturity, as in theory there is more risk to holding a bond for ten years than for 90 days, or for 30...
The author of A Complete Guide to Technical Trading Tactics: How to Profit Using Pivot Points, Candlesticks & Other Indicators, looks at a candlestick formation that can indicate reversal points when used with pivot points and support/resistance levels.
There are many trading methods one can employ to actively trade including various mechanical trading systems and manual trading tactics. The constant changing of market conditions can require system traders to adapt and update the parameters for the trading decisions. I often prefer the hands on visual approach which is more of a manual method while employing mechanical risk management techniques. The visual approach is aided by the use of candle charts. The draw back is one must have a...
Breakouts of long bases on strong volume are frequent harbingers of continued price appreciation. Another harbinger, after the initial up-leg, is a low-volume, orderly pullback towards support.
Kendle International (KNDL)
An analysis of Kendle International's chart illustrates this strategy. As the daily chart indicates, Kendle in February 2005 broke out of a base pattern that extended back almost two years. Some traders, who missed entering early, may have given up on the stock when it doubled by late June, but a closer look at the chart shows why it had more room to move.
Kendle's pullbacks were orderly, coming on lower volume and holding near its moving averages, a key sign of more upside to come. Only once did its pullback break...
I get more questions about stop losses than about any other subject. Clearly this strategy causes traders a lot of pain and confusion. Some of it stems from the schizoid nature of our modern markets. But most of it reflects an underlying weakness in trade management skills.
What takes place at the end of a trade usually reflects decisions made at the beginning. In other words, the best entries usually lead to the most profitable exits. This is the most urgent wisdom I can give when it comes to stop-loss placement.
We can spend hours deciding whether a stock is a good buy or a good sell, but this emphasis is often misplaced. Over time, carefully chosen exits are more important than great entries. You don't believe me? Just ask all...
Take a look at the nice up-trend on the chart below. There are plenty of reasons to have entered around £10 and sat comfortably in your armchair until some warning signs and an exit around £14, or even higher. A 40% rise and an easy 400 or so points - easy in hindsight that is. We can't trade hindsight, of course, but a simple swing trading technique would have served you well in real time.
Good trends like this develop by taking a run forward followed by a few paces back (retracement) followed by another run forward and a few paces back and so on. Simple swing trading seeks to take advantage of trend continuations by identifying those significant retracements in order to provide points of entry and a level of exit for ongoing...
Open interest is without a doubt the least used bit of market data by chart watchers. Conventional wisdom; prices up on increasing O.I. being bullish, is just as often found to be bearish.
What I want to show here is the relationship of O.I. and the buying patterns of the Commercials for the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.
I'll begin by showing a chart of gold with an indicator I'm sure you have never seen before, a 13 week stochastics of just Open Interest. Yes, this index is simply an oscillator of O.I. What we see is that, generally speaking, low levels in this index are found at market bottoms.
Thinking about it makes sense as what it is telling us is there is little interest, open or not, in the market we are studying. I...
Chart patterns capture the development of crowd emotion and provide potentially high
probability trade ideas with well-defined price targets and exact measures of risk
management. But patterns - by themselves - do not necessarily lead to consistent outcomes. The development of chart patterns only alerts traders that one particular type outcome is more likely to occur than another. As price moves towards a selected price point, the trader pays more attention to the stock, ready to place a buy order if prices move a few ticks above that level. In other words, chart patterns signal that trading potential and the probability to take action may exist.
Chart patterns are an invaluable aid to trading, but only when they point the way to high...
Do you have trouble pulling the trigger? If so, you're not alone. Greed and fear exert a powerful influence when the time comes to enter the trade. This is especially true for newbies who have great difficulty visualizing the rewards or risks they're about to incur.
Effective trade entry requires skill, confidence and a strong stomach. Most of the time it should be an uncomfortable experience; no one likes to lose money. But the ability to follow a disciplined entry plan, even when it hurts, separates profitable traders from the hordes of losers who take up the game.
I receive dozens of questions each year from frustrated traders who aren't sure when to be in or out of positions. I've compiled the best ones here today, along with...
Psychology Swing & Position Trading Day Trading & Scalping Paper Trading: Waste of Time or Valid Learning Method?
Numerous discussions of paper trading, and its value as a learning tool, usually see participants divided into two camps. One claims total uselessness of paper trading, another vows never to start without it. The scoffing camp points out the obvious limitations of paper trading:
It doesn't allow you to estimate slippage during your execution.
It leaves unanswered the question of whether your order has a chance to be executed at all.
It keeps you in a relatively relaxed state of mind as there is no pressure of endangering real money.
It also doesn't allow you to master your order routing tools in full.
Finally, it's very easy to cheat oneself, changing one's decision after the fact and booking corrected results.
Is this all true...
What is a trading arcade?
A trading arcade, proprietary trading group or trading bureaux are some of the commonly heard names for a company that provides risk management, additional leverage, professional software and hardware infrastructure, trading facilities with analyst support and sometimes training and capital backing to traders in return for a share of trading profits and/or commissions.
At an arcade, you would typically find a spacious trading room filled with desks: well equipped work area's with high spec workstations, arrays of screens and terminals providing access to market data & depth, quotes, charting, Reuters, Bloomberg, Sky TV and the all important trade execution platform. The name trading arcade probably originates...
In this article we present a simple trading system that we developed based on the concepts outlined in The 10 Power Principles of Successful Trading Systems.
Step 1: Selecting a market and timeframe
One of the most popular markets these days is the e-mini S&P, and that's not without a reason: It's a 500 company index. One of the largest in the world and that means you have excellent and consistent liquidity, superb volatility, tremendous leverage and no uptick rule. It's a truly bi-directional market that shorts just as easily and safely as going long. It's a fully electronic market, offering all the advantages of electronic contracts.
We decide to trade the market intraday, i.e. we will enter and exit a trade on the same day, because...
My personal trading style is based on a method described in the 1950s by a veteran floor trader named George Douglass Taylor. The "Taylor Trading Technique" is a short-term method for trading daily price movements that relies entirely on odds and percentages. It is a method as opposed to a system. Very few people can blindly follow a system, though many find it easier to be discretionary in a systematic way.
Because this short-term swing technique generates frequent trades, it is important to know the correct plays, when to lock in profits, and when to seek the true trend. Taking a loss is merely playing for better position. One trades strictly for probable future results, not for what the market might do.
To know the correct play is...