Why do so few succeed?

[JumpOff]

survival of the fittest

This is an analogy I like, because it turns our focus to the 'natural order of things.' Look around you. Every species you see alive today is here because it 'fits' in a specific niche. Beetles and sparrows, lions and vultures, lichens and daffodils - they all manage to 'make a living' just fine, because each uses a method that is uniquely suited to their way of being. (And long term - the biologists bet on the cockroaches -everytime.)

Survival of the fittest doesn't necessarily mean that your are the biggest, baddest, most lion hearted trader out there - unless you are the lion/shark type - and then that works for you. Sparrows can trade too - as long they understand they are sparrows, and don't try to take down a wildebeast during the FOMC announcements, with two nickels in their trading account and fear in their hearts....

JO

 

[garethb]

JO

I like this analogy and I have seen it extended along these lines.

The cheetah is highly evolved to live off the gazelle. It has high speed to catch the animal and enough strength to kill it. It is one of natures flashy traders - fading the earnings anouncement of GOOG in the pre-market perhaps. And captures a prey with a huge amount of energy to supply it's needs and those of its young. There is even enough for a number of other species to live off the scraps of its kill.

The cockroach on the other hand can, if necessary, survive for a number of days on the energy contained in the grease of a human fingerprint. It is very efficient and flexible in its fuel requirements and incredibly robust to changes in its environment.

If the gazelle grows into a somewhat slower but stronger animal the cheetah could have problems. Its speed is now an unecessary waste of energy but it is not big enough to kill the prey or is too easily injured in the process. It is perhaps overly "curve fitted".

You can aim to trade like a cheetah or a cockroach or one of many other species

Apologies if I have confused the species or, worse, mixed up continents entirely. Hopefully it still makes some sense.

Regards,

Gareth

 

[charliechan]

Isn't half of learning how to win, learning how to lose? So a person knows what not to do.
Though I'm not sure how much of that you ment in a general life philosophical sense, rather than purely trade oriented.

no. this is what they want you to believe. but this is not how it works.

successful people are successful because they just are. any thing other than winning just isnt acceptable, and is a waste of precious time and effort.

you are probably coming from the angle of learning how to limit losses and/or how to live with the fact that not every trade will have the desired outcome and learning how to overcome the damage this could do? well this will come automatically when people are acting in their own best interests, rather than emotional or ego based interests.

this applies to anything in life - trading, business, sport, flower arranging.

some say this is because how the brain is wired. the subconscious doesnt 'hear' negatives. NOT is a negative. so you may say to your self 'i will NOT lose' your subconscious doesnt hear the 'not'. so it just hears ' i will lose'. so thats what most end up doing.

some will say this is psychobabble, but i believe there is some merit, although the description may be a little simplistic given that human kind hasn't yet figured out how the brain works.

this is why i say focus on winning (the positive) rather than avoiding losing (the negative). it focuses attention where attention should be placed.

are you trading to win or to avoid losing?

they are very different, especially in a zero sum game - commission.

 

[charliechan]

This is an analogy I like, because it turns our focus to the 'natural order of things.' Look around you. Every species you see alive today is here because it 'fits' in a specific niche. Beetles and sparrows, lions and vultures, lichens and daffodils - they all manage to 'make a living' just fine, because each uses a method that is uniquely suited to their way of being. (And long term - the biologists bet on the cockroaches -everytime.)

Survival of the fittest doesn't necessarily mean that your are the biggest, baddest, most lion hearted trader out there - unless you are the lion/shark type - and then that works for you. Sparrows can trade too - as long they understand they are sparrows, and don't try to take down a wildebeast during the FOMC announcements, with two nickels in their trading account and fear in their hearts....

JO

interesting point.

but the real interesting thing is that none of these have a consciousness do they? a lion, shark, ****-a-roach (said in best scarface accent ) think much, or wake up in the morning and think what am i going to do today? they just get up, start hunting, feeding, drinking etc. they dont start building stock exchanges so they can take each others money.

this is why our ****-a-roach friends are so successful.

they arent trying to screw eachother all the time, building bombs etc. this is why human race wont survive in the long run. we are the architechts of our own destruction (as i think lincoln once said)

again - this is why most have trouble getting success. they are too busy in self destruct mode focusing on the negaives (greed) in stead of their own best interests.


moderators - c-o-c-k isnt really a naughty word is it? not as naughty as bottom or titties, so why is it in your naughtyword list, especially when it is used in other words. please remove it from the banned words list you bunch of ****s

 

[SOCRATES]

no. this is what they want you to believe. but this is not how it works.

successful people are successful because they just are. any thing other than winning just isnt acceptable, and is a waste of precious time and effort.

you are probably coming from the angle of learning how to limit losses and/or how to live with the fact that not every trade will have the desired outcome and learning how to overcome the damage this could do? well this will come automatically when people are acting in their own best interests, rather than emotional or ego based interests.

this applies to anything in life - trading, business, sport, flower arranging.

some say this is because how the brain is wired. the subconscious doesnt 'hear' negatives. NOT is a negative. so you may say to your self 'i will NOT lose' your subconscious doesnt hear the 'not'. so it just hears ' i will lose'. so thats what most end up doing.

some will say this is psychobabble, but i believe there is some merit, although the description may be a little simplistic given that human kind hasn't yet figured out how the brain works.

this is why i say focus on winning (the positive) rather than avoiding losing (the negative). it focuses attention where attention should be placed.

are you trading to win or to avoid losing?

they are very different, especially in a zero sum game - commission.

Yes, what you explain is a component of Ability.

 

[contrakt]

Survival of the fittest doesn't necessarily mean that your are the biggest, baddest, most lion hearted trader out there - unless you are the lion/shark type - and then that works for you. Sparrows can trade too - as long they understand they are sparrows, and don't try to take down a wildebeast during the FOMC announcements, with two nickels in their trading account and fear in their hearts....

JO

Like it

 

[charliechan]

Yes, what you explain is a component of Ability.

i think attitude would be a better description?

 

[SOCRATES]

i think attitude would be a better description?

Yes, I agree.

I bracket attitude and aptitude very closely together under the heading of Ability.

 

[Pat494]

Winners

Some more thoughts on the excellent and wise posts above.
Let's face it not many have the ability to actually design or make their own profit making system out of moving averages etc.
But do not despair there are other ways to come by a system
It usually involves buying it or failing that beg, borrow or stealing a winning system.
The problem then becomes one of which to try and there are many. Here is one ( ability unknown ):-

Mechanical System For Sale
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear T2W members

Firstly let me state that I am a full time trader and I have been trading the markets since 1996. I have moderate expectations for capital growth, normally achieving annual returns of around 25%, although I have achieved returns well above this figure. My trading account is in excess of £1 Million and I mainly trade UK options and futures. I have recently developed a new system which trades many of the world indices. Because this new system uses some automation through API I am unable to trade one of my primary mechanical systems thus I have decided to offer it for sale. ETC. ETC.

Systems seem to degrade over time.
Perhaps some subscribe to the watering down theory. RSI used to be the miracle formula years ago but now the crowd have caught up. One needs to be a step ahead of the herd., RSI isn't the cutting edge that it once was.
So if one had a winning system after much hard work and expense who would want to give it away ??
I hope to enjoy the journey of exploration; destination and ETA uncertain ( a bit like British Rail )

 

[Bigbusiness]

Some more thoughts on the excellent and wise posts above.
Let's face it not many have the ability to actually design or make their own profit making system out of moving averages etc.

I think it is worth a try though. A few years ago, I had never used excel but within a few weeks I was able to do more with it than most charting software allows. A lot of people have the program on their computers or could buy it at a small cost or use the free open office spreadsheet.

I still don't use it for back-testing the way some here do, as I haven't mastered that but I am capable of adapting ma's and other indicators with my custom settings and in a way that I never found possible with other charting packages. As there is also free data available, I do not have to pay anything to do this.

 

[SOCRATES]

Some more thoughts on the excellent and wise posts above.
Let's face it not many have the ability to actually design or make their own profit making system out of moving averages etc.
But do not despair there are other ways to come by a system
It usually involves buying it or failing that beg, borrow or stealing a winning system.
The problem then becomes one of which to try and there are many. Here is one ( ability unknown ):-

Mechanical System For Sale
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear T2W members

Firstly let me state that I am a full time trader and I have been trading the markets since 1996. I have moderate expectations for capital growth, normally achieving annual returns of around 25%, although I have achieved returns well above this figure. My trading account is in excess of £1 Million and I mainly trade UK options and futures. I have recently developed a new system which trades many of the world indices. Because this new system uses some automation through API I am unable to trade one of my primary mechanical systems thus I have decided to offer it for sale. ETC. ETC.

Systems seem to degrade over time.
Perhaps some subscribe to the watering down theory. RSI used to be the miracle formula years ago but now the crowd have caught up. One needs to be a step ahead of the herd., RSI isn't the cutting edge that it once was.
So if one had a winning system after much hard work and expense who would want to give it away ??
I hope to enjoy the journey of exploration; destination and ETA uncertain ( a bit like British Rail )

No, not even sell it or even lease it.

 

[Pat494]

winning systems

To answer my own question ( how to pick a winning system ) there should imho be an upgrading of the present Dow competition.
Rather than about 40 people guessing the end of the week Dow figure, I suggest a daily competiton with competitors earning +/- 1 point for every 1 Dow point and prizes awarded at the end of the week/month.
Thinking along the lines of motor-cycle racing invite individuals and also commercial competitors. So have works teams ( Yamaha, Susuki etc. ) like Tradestation, Metastock etc competing too. A great way for potential customers to make an intelligent choice for purchase and a great way for companies to PROVE their products. A lot of the also rans might disappear and not before time.

 

[barjon]

Some more thoughts on the excellent and wise posts above.
Let's face it not many have the ability to actually design or make their own profit making system out of moving averages etc.
But do not despair there are other ways to come by a system
It usually involves buying it or failing that beg, borrow or stealing a winning system.
The problem then becomes one of which to try and there are many. Here is one ( ability unknown ):-

Mechanical System For Sale
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear T2W members

Firstly let me state that I am a full time trader and I have been trading the markets since 1996. I have moderate expectations for capital growth, normally achieving annual returns of around 25%, although I have achieved returns well above this figure. My trading account is in excess of £1 Million and I mainly trade UK options and futures. I have recently developed a new system which trades many of the world indices. Because this new system uses some automation through API I am unable to trade one of my primary mechanical systems thus I have decided to offer it for sale. ETC. ETC.

Systems seem to degrade over time.
Perhaps some subscribe to the watering down theory. RSI used to be the miracle formula years ago but now the crowd have caught up. One needs to be a step ahead of the herd., RSI isn't the cutting edge that it once was.
So if one had a winning system after much hard work and expense who would want to give it away ??
I hope to enjoy the journey of exploration; destination and ETA uncertain ( a bit like British Rail )

pat

I guess this was your sideways crack at another thread. People will struggle to find it now 'cos my fickle finger's been at work

jon

 

[charliechan]

in continuation to my earlier point, i think justin mamis makes a good point in the first 2 sentances of his book 'the nature of risk: stock market survival & the meaning of life' (a great book)

the first word parents want a baby to understand and respond to is not mamma or daddy - its NO. how is anyone going to learn to venture, to take a risk, when 'no' resounds?

 

[SOCRATES]

in continuation to my earlier point, i think justin mamis makes a good point in the first 2 sentances of his book 'the nature of risk: stock market survival & the meaning of life' (a great book)

Yes = Positive Thinking

No = Negative Thinking

Po = Creative Thnking

If you are interested in Creative Thought the book to read is PO : BEYOND YES AND NO.

Author : Desmond Morris.

Year of publication: 1972

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN Number: 0140137823

 

[wasp]

no. this is what they want you to believe. but this is not how it works.

successful people are successful because they just are. any thing other than winning just isnt acceptable, and is a waste of precious time and effort.

you are probably coming from the angle of learning how to limit losses and/or how to live with the fact that not every trade will have the desired outcome and learning how to overcome the damage this could do? well this will come automatically when people are acting in their own best interests, rather than emotional or ego based interests.

this applies to anything in life - trading, business, sport, flower arranging.

some say this is because how the brain is wired. the subconscious doesnt 'hear' negatives. NOT is a negative. so you may say to your self 'i will NOT lose' your subconscious doesnt hear the 'not'. so it just hears ' i will lose'. so thats what most end up doing.

some will say this is psychobabble, but i believe there is some merit, although the description may be a little simplistic given that human kind hasn't yet figured out how the brain works.

this is why i say focus on winning (the positive) rather than avoiding losing (the negative). it focuses attention where attention should be placed.

are you trading to win or to avoid losing?

they are very different, especially in a zero sum game - commission.

This is part of the problem though...

We should all stop being so negative but its so natural that it becomes second nature. Which threads are the most popular with the most posts? The negative ones.

Just after this thread was initiated, Frugi posted one on on the merits of prior posters, and who has helped who, and just a general postive upbeat thread.

This thread has had 74 posts and Frugi's about 8.... go figure.

Arbitrigeur summed it up nicely IMO and we could have all moved on to more positive processes and actions but no....

 

[Chicken Curry]

Why do so few succeed ?......................

1. Because most people are not particularly intelligent.
2. Because most people are lazy.
3. Because most people have a lousy attitude towards hard work.
4. Because most people are not prepared to spend 3 to 5 years working hard at it.
5. Because most people think it is an easy way to earn a fast buck.
6. Because most people are not prepared to drag themselves off the floor and start again after a particularly bad reversal.
7. Because most people gamble and do not play the probability game correctly.
8. Because most people do not know how to or even want to conquer their fears.
9. Because most people are insatiably greedy.
10. Because most people really do not have a clue.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Yes = Positive Thinking

No = Negative Thinking

Po = Creative Thnking

If you are interested in Creative Thought the book to read is PO : BEYOND YES AND NO.

Author : Desmond Morris.

Year of publication: 1972

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN Number: 0140137823

Isn't that an Edward de Bono book? Please don't say Po

 

[TheBramble]

Isn't that an Edward de Bono book? Please don't say Po

Mu.

Yes, it was. But once you've read it you get really creative with titles and authors.

Desmond Morris did "The Naked Ape" and "Manwatching" et al.

 

[Chicken Curry]

Because most people ( 99.99% ) do not have the mental tenacity to even want to try and correct the 10,000 mistakes they have made over the past 3 years.