Weekly forecast for S&P 500 cash 2011

[FulcrumTrader]

I did some selling in ES yesterday out of a key supply & demand event but today I took a few shots LONG after a decent Inventory Grab supply & demand event;

HTF look for area I was tracking to BUY with lift off 1185's area -

Images | ChartHub.com

LTF Entry locations after Inventory Grab supply & demand event had played out off 1185's -

Images | ChartHub.com


After yesterday's action (rally into major Inventory Grab supply & demand event - "open interest" completely out of balance at 1213's on up) I worked longer term ES/TF SHORT trades. I am still holding some longer term SHORT positions entered yesterday due to geopolitical events I see brewing (holding 1/2 of a TF Longer Term SHORT trade - ES was cashed out today). I worked some intraday ES LONG's off today's set up but I am flat those trades now.

It really looks like the con job story is setting up to attack Iran (Israel will lead the effort from what seems imminent) and I sure in heck hope this does not happen - it will be a disaster imo. Just in case, I am holding some SHORTies unless we trade back to 1212's area in ES (then I will dump last 1/2 of held TF SHORT's).

 

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 14th October at 1224.6

Name...........Call.........Points.......Direction.......Podium ....…………Total

Don Star........1153...........4............0..............0.......................4
LuKOs.ro.......1240...........0............1..............3........................4
Atilla.............1250..........1............1..............2.......................4
Pat494…………..1144……….....3.......…….0……………….0……...……..…… ......3
dc2000...........1187...........1...........1..............1.......................3
wackypete2.....1168...........2............1..............0.......................3
Av.................1164............1............1............0.......................2
Wt av.............1162...........1............1............0........................2
Gaffs1964.......1125............1............0.............0........................1
dpinpon..........1176...........0............1..............0........................1
Isatrader.........1139............0...........0..............0........................0
robster970.......1135............0...........0..............0.........................0
debrox...........1136.............0............0...............0.......................0

Many congrats to LuKOs.ro to join a 3 way tie at the top.
It was a lot more volatile than I thought it would be last week. This could be indicative of a major move soon.

 

[LuKOs.ro]

Thank you pat for the kind regards. I'd reckon that this week the macro news will direct ES to lower levels. I'm thinking of $1155 for next week.

Cheers,
Lucian

 

[Pat494]

A slight pullback for me so I'll say 1160

 

[Pat494]

LONDON (Reuters) - The coming week is likely to be crucial for the direction of financial markets until year-end, with euro zone stability at stake as well as the latest test of the one bright spot for investors, corporate earnings.

In the case of the euro zone, there is talk of a "binary" moment next weekend in which a European leaders summit either comes up with the goods to assuage concerns about the debt crisis or disappoints again.

The former might well be taken as a reason for a sustained rally in riskier assets such as equities. The latter would almost certainly spark a sell off.

A comprehensive plan for solving the euro zone debt crisis at the summit in Brussels -- with endorsement at a G20 leaders meeting in Cannes to follow -- has been flagged by Germany and France, raising expectations on markets.

"The approval of that roadmap, that's what the markets are looking for," said Richard Batty, investment director at Standard Life Investments. "It has to be enough to stabilise things."

Some idea of what is at stake for investors can be seen in their actions over the past few weeks. World stocks as measured by MSCI are up more than 12 percent since hitting a low on October 4.

At the same time, yields of both long term U.S. bonds and core euro zone debt have risen well off their lows.

Part of this is in response to expectations of a euro zone debt roadmap. But it also reflects extremely bearish positioning throughout the northern hemisphere's summer months.

Reuters asset allocation polls at the end of September showed safe-haven cash holdings at levels that can be a counter indicator for a rally.

In effect, investors hold cash so that they can put it to work quickly if the investment climate changes -- which may be happening.

In the meantime, given all the volatility and the severity of both the euro zone debt crisis and the slowdown in the U.S. and possibly Chinese economies, the MSCI index is only down 10 percent for the year.

An end-of-year rally could yet put 2011 equity holders into the black.

 

[wackypete2]

1195

 

[Atilla]

1190 maybe tested but bias is still towards the upside for me.

1252 please Pat.

 

[isatrader]

1175 please pat

 

[robster970]

1210 for me this week.

 

[DonStar]

I think price has enough momentum to breach R1 at 1247, but expect it to stay between R1 and R2 (1269).

1258 for me this week please.

 

[Gaffs1964]

1168 for me please

 

[dpinpon]

Momentum has not taken off just yet, but might start off this week, 1250 for me.

 

[dc2000]

1156 for me please

 

[Pat494]

average = 1206
wt av = 1215

up = 3
down = 9

highest = 1258
lowest = 1156

good trading

 

[LuKOs.ro]

average = 1206
wt av = 1215

up = 3
down = 9

highest = 1258
lowest = 1156

good trading

Thanks Pat, I`m actually short S&P and long gold for the time being. Not very convinced on the gold trade, and will dump the position if it goes under $1600.

Happy Trading!
Lucian

 

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 21st October at 1238.2

Name...........Call.........Points.......Direction .......Podium ...……Total

Atilla.............1252..........4................1... ..............2..........7
DonStar.........1254...........4................1......... ........1..........6
dpinpon.........1250..........1.................1.... .............3..........5
LuKOs.ro.......1155...........4................0...... ............0..........4
Pat494……….….1160……..…..3.......…....…..0…………..…...….0……...….3
dc2000...........1156.........3................0..... .............0...........3
wackypete2.....1195.........3................0...... ............0............3
Av................1206.........2................0. ................0.............2
Wt av............1215.........2................0...... ...........0.............2
Gaffs1964.......1168.........1................0.... .............0.............1
Isatrader.........1175........0................0... ..............0..............0
robster970.......1210.........0...............0.... .............0..............0

dpinpon won last week’s competition but Atilla takes the overall lead. So well done to you two.
:clap:

 

[Pat494]

Thanks Pat, I`m actually short S&P and long gold for the time being. Not very convinced on the gold trade, and will dump the position if it goes under $1600.

Happy Trading!
Lucian

Hope you didn't get hit too hard

 

[Atilla]

Interesting article... Not sure what to make of it? I have no opinion at present which is rare for me...

Is another financial panic coming? - Fundmastery Blog - MarketWatch

 

[robster970]

Jesus - not even a point yet!

1260 for me next week

 

[Atilla]

Jesus - not even a point yet!

1260 for me next week

Mr Average is doing better than you too. That is spooky.

According to the odds of tossing a coin three times; up / down / 50 / 50 you should have at least 1 point by now. I noticed that too but didn't want to be rude by pointing it out :cheesy:

However, I feel a bit of melt down is due but given its bonus time and contemptible nature of markets I have 16/23rd of Jan as a low point. No idea why that date is flashing up on my charts but until then I feel market will continue to rise because it's all RIGGED by fat market makers...


Wishing you good luck