S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

Democrats in Congress Say Boehner Must Seek Bipartisan Plan

By Kathleen Hunter & Roxana Tiron - Dec 21, 2012 9:27 PM GMT.
Democratic leaders in Congress called on House Speaker John Boehner to resume talks on averting more than $600 billion in tax-and-spending changes starting in January, saying a solution must be bipartisan.

President Barack Obama plans to make a statement on the budget today at 5 p.m. Washington time, the White House said. Obama was meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, according to an administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.





Late yesterday, Boehner scrapped his plan to allow higher tax rates on annual income above $1 million because he lacked the votes in his Republican caucus to pass it.

10:11

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- House Speaker John Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor speak at a news conference in Washington about the failure to bring to a House vote last night Boehner's "Plan B" proposal and measures needed to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. (Source: Bloomberg)
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“A comprehensive solution to the looming fiscal cliff will need to be a bipartisan solution,” Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said on the chamber’s floor today. “No comprehensive agreement can pass either chamber without both Democrats and Republican votes.”

Late yesterday, Boehner scrapped his plan to allow higher tax rates on annual income above $1 million because he lacked the votes in his Republican caucus to pass it. His action threw the already-stalled budget talks into turmoil as Boehner said Obama and Reid should come up with legislation to avoid the spending cuts and tax increases in 2013.

“Let’s go back to the negotiating table,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, said at a news conference.

Reid said Republican divisions in the House are the reason no budget deal is getting done.

“It’s because the Republicans in the House are fighting among themselves,” Reid said.

Until Dec. 17, Obama and Boehner had been edging closer to a deal that would have included about $1 trillion each in tax increases and spending cuts.

After Christmas

Now that Boehner has pulled his plan, the House and Senate don’t plan to return until Dec. 27 to address the end-of-year budget issues. That will give them less than a week to reach agreementvto avert the tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January.

Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Boehner “should bring a bipartisan bill to the floor and let the House work its will.”

“This House will say yes to a bipartisan bill,” said Van Hollen.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 0.9 percent to 1,430.15 at the close of trading in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 120.9 points, or 0.9 percent, to 13,190.84. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield dropped four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.75 percent at 2:59 p.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.

‘Perception’ on Taxes

Earlier today, Boehner said some members of the Republican caucus refused to back his tax measure because they didn’t want to be accused of raising taxes.

It was “not the outcome I wanted, but it was the will of the House,” said Boehner, 63, of Ohio. “They were dealing with the perception that someone might accuse them of raising taxes.”

Democrats and Republicans are fighting over whether George W. Bush-era tax cuts due to expire Dec. 31 should be extended for everyone, as Republicans want, or whether rates should rise for top earners, as Obama and other Democrats advocate.

Boehner said he pushed his alternative plan in the House to “jump start and try to kick into gear some action by the Senate to avert these tax increases going into effect Jan. 1.”

Boehner said he and Obama had traded “bottom line” offers on spending cuts and taxes. The speaker urged the Senate to take up legislation the House passed Aug. 1 that would extend the current rates on all taxpayers.

Proposal ‘Laughable’

In the Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said Democrats should bring that bill up, allow amendments “from all sides,” and take the measure to a conference committee with the House.

Reid called the proposal “laughable.” McConnell “is struggling to find a way to blame Democrats,” Reid said. “To blame us for that travesty that took place over there” in the House, “that is pretty incredible.”

In his most recent tax proposal, Obama said he would be willing to extend tax cuts for households earning as much as $400,000 a year. Until Boehner made his $1 million threshold offer last week, Republicans had opposed tax rate increases for any income level.

If Congress doesn’t act, the policy changes starting in January include higher income tax rates at all income levels, the end of a 2 percentage point cut in the payroll tax, higher tax rates on capital gains, estates and dividends, and automatic spending cuts, about half in defense programs.

Next Year

“It looks like, to me, that obviously this is going to drag on into next year, which is going to hurt our economy,” Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Peter Cook for the program “Capitol Gains,” airing Dec. 23. “So this will just drag on and on.”

Still, Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington, said this month that instead of “fiscal cliff,” he prefers the term “fiscal slope” to describe how the effects would accumulate gradually over a matter of months during 2013. The components also can be reversed if a deal is reached early in 2013, he said.

In a message to Treasury Department employees, Deputy Secretary Neal Wolin said day-to-day operations wouldn’t change dramatically in January if the automatic cuts take effect. Furloughs may be possible later if the issue is unresolved for an extended period of time, he wrote.

Political Forces

The failure of Boehner’s proposal cast doubt on his ability to navigate the competing political and legislative forces bearing down on him. To get a tax-and-spending deal, Boehner must gain enough support from Republicans to keep control of his party while relying on Democrats for the votes needed to send any measure to Obama.

“It weakens the entire Republican Party, the Republican majority,” said Representative Steven LaTourette, a nine-term Ohio Republican who is retiring after this session. “If you’re not a governing majority, you’re not going to be a majority very long.”

That view was underscored by the results of an ABC/Washington Post poll released this morning. In it, 53 percent of Americans said the Republican Party needs less conservative policies that are more focused on middle-income and lower-income Americans, while 38 percent said the party needs better leaders to sell its policies. The telephone poll of 1,002 adults, conducted Dec. 13-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
 
Well I am delighted Gaffs - beat system!

This reminds me of the time when Gary Kasparov beat IBM's deep blue in a chess match. Man rules supreme over machines and the system. (y)

Morevover, Gaffs can not be beaten. Mr Weighted Average can only hope to draw if it wins outright next week. We'll save the drum roll for the end of the year but 2nd and 3rd places are up for grabs.

The podium stand for this week goes to;

1st - Gaffs
2nd - ibetyou
3rd - Pat494 & VielGeld in join positions.

:clap::clap::clap:

HAHA! - I think there was a bit more skill involved with Gazza'a win though! :)
 
1412 complaure ( catalan )

Complaure Pat,

Can you please cast your eagle eye over the Weighted Average @ 1408, seems to be somewhat off-skew to me compared to the mean average.

I'll then paste the stats up.


Muchas gracias mi amigo... :)
 
Complaure Pat,

Can you please cast your eagle eye over the Weighted Average @ 1408, seems to be somewhat off-skew to me compared to the mean average.

I'll then paste the stats up.


Muchas gracias mi amigo... :)

Will do. It does look a bit low but let's have a look.
 
Last week of SPX-500 2012 - Forecast Stats...

Good luck everyone.


Wishing you all a very merry Christmas tomorrow too :clap::clap::clap:


Can't wait to open mi prezzies. Look out for the cracker jokes in the jokes thread too. :D
 

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Have fixed the sheet for you Atilla

What you aren't doing is (7) and (8) properly in the instructions - they are not being adjusted for the new forecast column (DC this week, you left them referencing DA). If you don't do this, the Wt Ave and Average end up being calculated base upon who is participating in the current week but using people's scores from the previous week. The tell-tale is that somebody has a weighting for this week but actually hasn't posted a forecast.

Anyway chaps - Happy Christmas.
 
Have fixed the sheet for you Atilla

What you aren't doing is (7) and (8) properly in the instructions - they are not being adjusted for the new forecast column (DC this week, you left them referencing DA). If you don't do this, the Wt Ave and Average end up being calculated base upon who is participating in the current week but using people's scores from the previous week. The tell-tale is that somebody has a weighting for this week but actually hasn't posted a forecast.

Anyway chaps - Happy Christmas.

Just saw it.

So as well as blanking out Diff / Direction columns I will need to blank out DF / DG columns too. Ok roger that. Really is like teaching an old dog new tricks...

You too Robster. (y)


I think I've OD-ed on tangerines. Should I be worried :cheesy:
 
Congratulations to Gaffs who takes the SP500-2012-Q4 trophy...

Considering the two Averages have taken 2nd and 3rd positions - shows Gaffs was the outstanding outlier in this quarters contest making consistent accurate forecasts.

Let's have a big round of applause for our champion...

:clap: :clap: Drumroll :clap: :clap:

WackyPete & Pat put in a good show sprinting towards the end but the two averages held on to the lead.


Thanking all our members this year for making this thread a good one and hope to see you all spritely for next year.


Pat,
If you can do the honours in good tradition with updated rule sheet, start a new thread for 2013 I'd be grateful.

Robster,
Likewise, would you be able to create a new SP-2013 file please and I'll carry the flag for the next quarter in your good foot steps


Hope you're all ready for 2013 :clap: :drunk: :clap: :jester: :clap: :party: :clap:
 

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My god I've been deleted..I wasn't that bad surely
No worries, I couldn't have achieved anything, but I will be starting from scratch next year..watch this space :sneaky:
Happy New year everyone
 
Congratulations to Gaffs for the Q4 win. :clap:

Atilla are you going to do the 2012 overall results? I believe the weighted average might have taken it, as I was 2 points ahead of it in mid November, but I think it's pulled ahead since then?

Below is my quarterly spreadsheet that I last updated in mid November, including your final Q4 results. Apologies if anyone's missing. But I have the weighted average as the winner by 5 points for 2012.
 

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My god I've been deleted..I wasn't that bad surely
No worries, I couldn't have achieved anything, but I will be starting from scratch next year..watch this space :sneaky:
Happy New year everyone


Sorry Malaguti,

Ermm... That's a pilot error :eek:

You were hidden and now corrected.


Isatrader,
Thank you for doing the full years analysis. I was going to have another play over the weekend but I like the way you've done it all there for us.

Well that is amazing stuff imo. We have the makings of a good system here. (y)
 

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The new thread for 2013 has been set up, so hope to see everyone over there next year.

:clap:
 
Well done everyone it's been great fun,looking farward to next years competition,
I do hope all the regular participates join again.
May i take this opportunity to wish you all a happy new year.

ps.Pat may i suggest you include the word competition in your threader head so it stands out from all the other s&p 500 threads.
Just a thought as i only clicked on it because i seen your name in the last poster bit and wondered if you had shared some more of your wisdow with someone,had your name not been there i would have skipped past,
Now your going to know i'm the one stalking you.
If you can't i'll just have to get use to it.
 
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