Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[kaisen]

ye thanks for the advice mate, i dont kno wot happened today i was looking for a good position did good yesterday but i will def wait for confirmation and not rush in.

Your welcome.

Glad you found the input useful.

It is difficult both to gauge the movement from one moment to another and also to be patient waiting for the candles to close for confirmation.

But I think the savings through not jumping in and waiting for confirmation will outweigh the "potential" lost pnts from trying to get in early.

ATB

 

[Chelski]

GBP/JPY ascending triangle on the hourly. Could be an interesting breakout.

Needs to break and hold around 16210 ish level i think?

 

[london_lad]

Re GDP, pls help me clarify my understanding so we can decide directions when interest rate results come out:
- if interest rates go up (unlikely), then market will go down.
- if they go down, market will go up.
- if they stay same, market will stay same or go up by a bit.
- if additional QE agreed, then market will def go up.

???

 

[Manya1983]

London, I was planning the same thing in my head. Only safe trade is if QE does not get extended in which case market drops and GBP doesn't get devalued but does drop based on risk aversion. Although who knows how the traders will interpret the event.

 

[kaisen]

Re GDP, pls help me clarify my understanding so we can decide directions when interest rate results come out:
- if interest rates go up (unlikely), then market will go down.
- if they go down, market will go up.
- if they stay same, market will stay same or go up by a bit.
- if additional QE agreed, then market will def go up.

???

IMO - while we could debate the economics of what response we should see to any anouncement, I feel that it is better to wait to see how the market reacts and trade accordingly.

My experience to date says that it is better to observe the market reaction as there are often bits behind the scenes that we could not have known.
For example a company could produce horrible results but the share price go up because people were expecting even worse.
I remember when I worked for HSBC, the results were really good but the chairman commented that he expected "challenging" times ahead and the share price dropped.

With so many variables i have taken the decision to trade what the markets reaction is and not pre-empt or try and evaluate and place quick deals when the news breaks.

Just my thoughts!

 

[london_lad]

SD: just heard on bloomberg saying yeilds are becoming tighter. Money flowing back.

 

[kaisen]

London, I was planning the same thing in my head. Only safe trade is if QE does not get extended in which case market drops and GBP doesn't get devalued but does drop based on risk aversion. Although who knows how the traders will interpret the event.

Thats my point Manya, how we interpret the results is not important. How the market behaves after the announcement is the most important thing!

 

[h_a]

i thought if interest rates go up market goes up

 

[london_lad]

Bloomberg hasnt even mentioned UK's interest decision. Not sure if they will announce it timely. What space are you watching for UK Rate decision?

 

[Manya1983]

Matter of time before 4700 is breached, we are making higher lows each time we test it.

 

[london_lad]

i thought if interest rates go up market goes up

Why wont people put their money in bonds if interest rates go up?

 

[kaisen]

Bloomberg hasnt even mentioned UK's interest decision. Not sure if they will announce it timely. What space are you watching for UK Rate decision?

Unchanged

 

[london_lad]

I am not sure what to make of the news. Equities should go up, but I dont have faith in FTSE anymore the way we have come so far so fast.

 

[Chelski]

anyone watching £Y? 140 point candle! No longer an assending triangle!!

 

[london_lad]

I should have been looking at Gold from inflation standpoint rather than equities - damn

 

[bw81]

anyone watching £Y? 140 point candle! No longer an assending triangle!!

i was watching sterling... 144 point drop!!! in 10 minute candle

 

[SuddenDeath]

RSI5 buy signal at 4688 at 11.00

 

[kaisen]

I am not sure what to make of the news. Equities should go up, but I dont have faith in FTSE anymore the way we have come so far so fast.

To re-emphasise my point, you can rationalise all day but just observe the market and trade what you see.

You could argue for example that increasing the QE will reduce the value of the pound and assist banks - pointing to a rise in the FTSE.
However you could also say ask why are the BOE doing this? Surely this means the economy needs even more help and the uplift in QE could suggest that things are worse than we believe?
I am sure there are more variables but ultimately the market will decide.

All we need now is for the euro to weaken against the dollar, dollar to strengthen, oil and gold to fall and markets to fall in US bring markets down in Europe.

Also dont forget shanghai was down 2% over night so pressure in china too!

Etc etc.

 

[london_lad]

If the second candle holds above 4700, this wil be the first time since pre-lehman. Buy signal confirmation for me.

Btw, SD: at 11, the RSI5 signal were both pointing downward (ie, Williams R and RSI).

 

[SuddenDeath]

RSI5 doesnt use Stoch, it is purely RSI crossing..

If the second candle holds above 4700, this wil be the first time since pre-lehman. Buy signal confirmation for me.

Btw, SD: at 11, the RSI5 signal were both pointing downward (ie, Williams R and RSI).

..above 35, and adding 4 points to the high of the crossover bar.