UK House price charts?
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Atilla
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I would recommend any serious person not to believe what is written in press by people that dramatise the housing market.
Look at the stats. http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/HPIReportSeptsmorwtab.pdf
As been mentioned before house prices are very diverse up and down the country and also within boroughs in the same county.
From my personal perspective - house prices based on the land registry stats for two areas were; Redbridge=10% and Worthing=9.6%. Contrary to media statements - Redbridge was up 1.1% last month. Location, location, location as they say.
Prices are also sticky down.
So whilst house prices do slow in the winter (as they always do) right now - lasting until Feb-March time is the last 4 months you'll have to buy before prices start rising imho.
Inflation @ 5% with interest rates @ 0.5% only safe haven is in property.
Look at the stats. http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/HPIReportSeptsmorwtab.pdf
As been mentioned before house prices are very diverse up and down the country and also within boroughs in the same county.
From my personal perspective - house prices based on the land registry stats for two areas were; Redbridge=10% and Worthing=9.6%. Contrary to media statements - Redbridge was up 1.1% last month. Location, location, location as they say.
Prices are also sticky down.
So whilst house prices do slow in the winter (as they always do) right now - lasting until Feb-March time is the last 4 months you'll have to buy before prices start rising imho.
Inflation @ 5% with interest rates @ 0.5% only safe haven is in property.
scose-no-doubt
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Don't disagree Atilla. Shows favourable data for esp for the high end properties (which I think is skewing av house price btw) but the chart p13 house vol by price range shows 1st time buyers are clearly being priced out of the market or not buying for some other reason. Not think gonna have an effect further down the line?
Would also be interesting to see how many of the sales were second homes sold before the 28% CGT.
Would also be interesting to see how many of the sales were second homes sold before the 28% CGT.
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And how are they going to rise when availability and liquidity of credit is leas than the boom levels that sustained the bubble?
People quickly forget the basis of the credit crisis.... Easy credit and the lack thereof going forward. House prices to earnings shows the exuberance of the boom and how much of a contraction needs to take place before prices return to realistic levels.
Sure you can get a mortgage but access to them isn't as easy anymore . People get terrible deals if they can't fork out 25% and they cant lend as much as during the boom period.
I was in Blackheath today and seen some council style houses for sale for 500 - 600 k. I'm no estate agent but it doesn't take one to understand that this isn't sustainable.
Atilla
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There are cash buyers who have done well out of property. Also the billions pumped into the economy and the banks will be feeding into the economy. Those billions will not be sitting in bank coffers making them look flushed pink. Nope - that money (what ever the transfer mechanism is) will feed into the economy. Money and debt doesn't disappear it simply changes hands. For every debt laden soul there is a fat rich git on the other side...
We are about to see all the bankers get their bonuses very soon over this xmas period. They will be buying property for sure. In fact there is already talk that their bonuses may well be considerably large this year to make up for last couple of years... No joke? :-0
Foreign money coming in too. London is littered with tourists and they are shopping like crazy with the pound being weak.
Council houses in Islington were once going for poultry sums in the 80s. Now I'd doubt you can buy one of those multi-storey old Victorian houses for anything less than £1m.
People are awash with money. Think inheritance too. Ageing population.
I beg to differ. What is happening on the ground and what one expects or is reported do not match up. Don't believe the hype but do believe what you see.
scose-no-doubt
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I'm seeing modernised Victorian flats that were 150+ asking price 2 years ago being boarded up where I am :S
Atilla
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Maybe people have more money than they need and opt for a two bedroom for £200K + instead of the single bedroom for £150K etc.
This could also be because developers got their numbers wrong and built too many one/two bedroom properties when market demand was for 3/4 beds etc...
All I know is some people are broke and others awash with money. This trend will continue based on our new governments policies...
Atilla
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Where is that?
There are cash buyers who have done well out of property. Also the billions pumped into the economy and the banks will be feeding into the economy. Those billions will not be sitting in bank coffers making them look flushed pink. Nope - that money (what ever the transfer mechanism is) will feed into the economy. Money and debt doesn't disappear it simply changes hands. For every debt laden soul there is a fat rich git on the other side...
We are about to see all the bankers get their bonuses very soon over this xmas period. They will be buying property for sure. In fact there is already talk that their bonuses may well be considerably large this year to make up for last couple of years... No joke? :-0
Foreign money coming in too. London is littered with tourists and they are shopping like crazy with the pound being weak.
Council houses in Islington were once going for poultry sums in the 80s. Now I'd doubt you can buy one of those multi-storey old Victorian houses for anything less than £1m.
People are awash with money. Think inheritance too. Ageing population.
I beg to differ. What is happening on the ground and what one expects or is reported do not match up. Don't believe the hype but do believe what you see.
I don't know where you seeing the billions being pumped into the economy. It is only marginally growing. The public sector is now larger than the private sector and the government policies are punishing the working class more and more. The real money is flooding to the emerging markets.
Bankers, their bonuses, and how they spend it are off topic if I must be honest. Tourism figures actually show a drop across the UK and USA so although there is money flowing in it isn't the levels it needs to be to support house price increases.
House prices haven't dropped much since the credit bubble, how can they sustainable begin to grow again while first time buyers are still largely priced out. First time buyers underpin the housing markets future. Without them you essentially cutting fresh supply into the system.
As you say believe what you see and I see out priced buyers who statistically have the lowest savings in 40 years. People live on debt nowadays and appetite for giving it isn't supporting a sustainable house price increase like you are suggesting.
How about this for a thought - far lower house prices over the next 10 years might lead to economic boom times but with a difference - really solid economic foundations rather than debt/ponzi schemes.
Think I'm wrong, well let's look at the flip side - roaring property prices have led to the worst recession since the 1930s so why not think the opposite can't happen............
Think I'm wrong, well let's look at the flip side - roaring property prices have led to the worst recession since the 1930s so why not think the opposite can't happen............
Atilla
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Not a matter of right or wrong...
Look what has happened in the last 100 years and ask your self the question why should it be any different for the next 100 years?
Trader333
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Whilst I agree that those in the city are in a better position to buy property than they were 2 years ago, the reasons are not to do with bonuses but to do with the basic salary increases they have been given. What has happened is that basic salaries have rocketed to offset the taxing of bonuses and as such a much higher mortgage can now be obtained.
Paul
scose-no-doubt
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north west. You wanna get here, son. Your charts show Manchester is biggest decline and we're not far behind.
counter_violent
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Atilla
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Atilla
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Dec 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
Nov 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
Oct 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
Sep 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
Aug 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
July 2010 - Nationwide House Price Indes
June 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index
Atilla
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