UK House price charts?
- Thread starter Gobsmacked Panda
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Atilla
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What is the terms of the wager.
Need more specifics.
I've already have two bets that house prices will rise by a full 5% in 2010. That is not 4.99 but 5.00% based on the average of Nationwide and Halifax house price index?
Do you want a similar one for the time period you have outlined?
Also £500 is too much for me. How about £200?
Atilla
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To clarify -
- £200 on negative or positive change in house prices,
- for the year 1st June 2010 - 31st May 2011
- based on Nationwide's house price monthly price survey press release in June 2011...
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/default.asp (here is the one for April 2010)
If you are happy with above - I accept gentleman's agreement for the wager...
If not please amend for review...
Atilla
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meanreversion
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House prices might dip, but when the BoE let rip with round 2 of QE they'll go back up again. Money needs to be continually created, and it usually ends up in real estate.
Some friends of mine recently sold their property in West London, nice take profit, but are now paying £7k/month to rent, more than double their mortgage.
Houses are not purely vehicles for speculation - people need to live somewhere!
Now, if there is sufficient overbuilding, then prices will of course go down, but there is little evidence of massive HOUSE building in this country (forget apartments).
sebastionay
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What reasons do you have to expect a second dose of QE? How likely do you think that will be? at the moment I'm expecting rates to stay the same this year then leap to around 3% sometime in 2011.
Atilla
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Just reviewing the progress of the housing market on this interesting web site... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/
Looking at the section headed House Price Predictions I think the statistics are very interesting.
Back in 2007 and height of crises they were predicting 35-50% house price crash.
More recent predictions made in the last year are still expecting 10% falls.
However looking at house prices since last peak - falls are 5-10% approx.
Since the worst around March 2009 house prices have recovered approx 8-10%
I further still hold the view they will end this year and the next up based purely on inflationary pressures in the system coupled with shortage of properties and demand for housing.
Markets are recovering and the 2nd dip seems to be less likely. As for the recovery - whether it would be a V, W, U or an extended L shaped I'd guess it is an L thus far. Slow but gradual recovery.
I think the big determining factor is likely to be interest rates. imo due to bias towards economic growth v inflation - interest rates likely to remain low.
Finally the amount of property extensions, development and house purchases around Gants Hill in London are considerable indeed. Not to mention new shops - fast sports cars and bling on display. Walking down the street one can sense that economic growth is rebounding.
There is also the great Worthing Rotary Carnival this weekend so the party atmosphere is definately in the air...
Looking at the section headed House Price Predictions I think the statistics are very interesting.
Back in 2007 and height of crises they were predicting 35-50% house price crash.
More recent predictions made in the last year are still expecting 10% falls.
However looking at house prices since last peak - falls are 5-10% approx.
Since the worst around March 2009 house prices have recovered approx 8-10%
I further still hold the view they will end this year and the next up based purely on inflationary pressures in the system coupled with shortage of properties and demand for housing.
Markets are recovering and the 2nd dip seems to be less likely. As for the recovery - whether it would be a V, W, U or an extended L shaped I'd guess it is an L thus far. Slow but gradual recovery.
I think the big determining factor is likely to be interest rates. imo due to bias towards economic growth v inflation - interest rates likely to remain low.
Finally the amount of property extensions, development and house purchases around Gants Hill in London are considerable indeed. Not to mention new shops - fast sports cars and bling on display. Walking down the street one can sense that economic growth is rebounding.
There is also the great Worthing Rotary Carnival this weekend so the party atmosphere is definately in the air...
Atilla
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I agree, but would consider it to be an indicator.
I think it is a leading indicator. Rest of the country should follow soon. Whether that may be 1, 3 or 5 years I have no idea. I'd guess in couple of years perhaps?
Atilla
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Atilla
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Atilla, you sound a little optimistic. House prices are still very high by any objective measure, although the necessary correction might manifest itself in a long period of low growth rather than further dramatic falls.
Psmith
Yes I am on the optimistic side of the fence.
I see house prices as a hedge againts the inflationary turmoil waiting up ahead...
If we didn't get the dramatic predictions in the worst of the market I doubt we will do so in the future. It certainly seems like a long slow plod ahead.
As Autumn and winter approaches house sales will inevitably slow down but come spring I expect there will be a stronger bounce than perhaps this year...
Atilla
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Atilla
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