U.s NFP later today

[Black Swan]

oh and one more thing, look how *they* fudge, misdirect and manipulate in tandem with the MSM over the figures...

Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6 Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging

Following this week's ebullient ADP private payrolls report, the sellside has succumbed to an orgiastic frenzy suggesting that tomorrow NFP number may be as high as 580,000 (as reported earlier). While there is no chance on earth of that happening absent all of US data gathering to have been outsourced to Beijing, what is more interesting, is that organizations which track employment trends in real time have found that neither is ADP's optimism justified, nor is there absolutely any basis to expect a blow out NFP number tomorrow. Gallup has found that not only did the unemployment rate increase in December from 9.4% to 9.6%, that disgruntled part-time workers who want full-time work increased from 8.6% to 9.4%, the highest since September, but that the most important metric in a labor force increasingly consisting of part-time workers, underemployment, has surged to 19%, the highest since June!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ga...deremployment-6-month-high-and-blasts-governm

 

[robster970]

I read that on ZH last night too. What I think is interesting is the reaction on the headline numbers only and the dismissal of the revisions that get posted.

My opinion (fwiw) today is that the ADP earlier in the week has set an unusually high expectation for this month's numbers so anything commensurate with the current economic state of the US is likely to disappoint. Somebody has been selling into the buyers from the ADP numbers.

 

[new_trader]

oh and one more thing, look how *they* fudge, misdirect and manipulate in tandem with the MSM over the figures...[/url]

You don't say!:-0

 

[Black Swan]

I read that on ZH last night too. What I think is interesting is the reaction on the headline numbers only and the dismissal of the revisions that get posted.

My opinion (fwiw) today is that the ADP earlier in the week has set an unusually high expectation for this month's numbers so anything commensurate with the current economic state of the US is likely to disappoint. Somebody has been selling into the buyers from the ADP numbers.

The levels of bull5hit you have to contend with across so many MSM airwaves each day, on a range of economic subjects, were the information given conflicts with that offered up an hour earlier, is truly breathtaking. To use any of it to then arrive at an FX 'direction' decision is imho impossible. Sure there'll be folk who "get it right" but ultimately at our level it's a simple crap shoot. Gotta wonder if all this froth and chatter is just a monthly attempt to rape the retail punter. I often wonder whether the 'excitement' of NFP is laughed at by the institutions and big hitters some of whom already know the figures and have already adjusted their positions accordingly...

 

[new_trader]

Sure there'll be folk who "get it right" but ultimately at our level it's a simple crap shoot. Gotta wonder if all this froth and chatter is just a monthly attempt to rape the retail punter. ...

A simple crap shoot? Are you serious? So much for 'the edge' you keep mentioning you have. I have said it before and I will say it again, only fools and amateurs trade 'The NEWS'.

 

[Black Swan]

A simple crap shoot? Are you serious? So much for 'the edge' you keep mentioning you have. I have said it before and I will say it again, only fools and amateurs trade 'The NEWS'.

You've lost me there, you're trying too hard...

 

[robster970]

The levels of bull5hit you have to contend with across so many MSM airwaves each day, on a range of economic subjects, were the information given conflicts with that offered up an hour earlier, is truly breathtaking. To use any of it to then arrive at an FX 'direction' decision is imho impossible. Sure there'll be folk who "get it right" but ultimately at our level it's a simple crap shoot. Gotta wonder if all this froth and chatter is just a monthly attempt to rape the retail punter. I often wonder whether the 'excitement' of NFP is laughed at by the institutions and big hitters some of whom already know the figures and have already adjusted their positions accordingly...

I don't know BS. Employment is lynchpin of economic activity so I can't imagine it not being used by the main market participants. As for retailers trying to trade the actual news, I don't think they have an informational advantage so it's pointless IMO.

 

[Black Swan]

I don't know BS. Employment is lynchpin of economic activity so I can't imagine it not being used by the main market participants. As for retailers trying to trade the actual news, I don't think they have an informational advantage so it's pointless IMO.

Not what I said (meant) bud.

 

[new_trader]

I don't know BS. Employment is lynchpin of economic activity so I can't imagine it not being used by the main market participants. As for retailers trying to trade the actual news, I don't think they have an informational advantage so it's pointless IMO.

What would you do if you were given the numbers now, in secret?

 

[meanreversion]

That's an excellent question. I've always thought that even if you KNEW these numbers ahead of time, they wouldn't do you a whole lot of good.

It's a little like imagining going back to 1990 and explaining to a Japanese person that in 2011, the government would borrow more than it raised in tax for the third year in a row. Total debt is now over 200% of GDP. What do you think 10yr JGB yields would be? The answer probably would not have been 1.2%.

 

[Black Swan]

What would you do if you were given the numbers now, in secret?

sell them.

 

[Black Swan]

This made me smile ;

by Henry Chinaski
on Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:19
#853686

Employment statistics are so confusing. I just hit a fast food joint for my economic updates:

Competent middle-aged workers = depression

Mostly competent college students and/or elderly workers = recession (or recovery)

Totally incompetent pimple-faced teenagers = growth/boom/full employment
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

by pazmaker
on Thu, 01/06/2011 - 15:49
#853796

I like that! +1



So which one of these three did you see? I don't frequent fastfood
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

by Henry Chinaski
on Thu, 01/06/2011 - 18:26
#854288

Now and then I hit the local Subway. The service is excellent. The former construction supervisors and office managers build a mean sandwich.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ga...deremployment-6-month-high-and-blasts-governm

 

[Hotch]

No love for NFP? Best day of the month

In my limited (2 years I guess) experience, it always does the same thing. Spikes and then shoots off the other way. Sure there's some high vol, but that's nothing to be scared of. Easily the highest expectation days I have are NFPs.

Hell, I keep wondering if I should just trade NFP and get a real job :X

I guess the difference is I don't much care about the numbers, and don't worry about them too much, instead I just play the momentum.

 

[Black Swan]

oh and antoher thing and my final point on this, I'll leave it to the BLS to explain it better than I could..

Effective with data for January 2011, the Current Population Survey (CPS) will be modified to allow respondents to report longer durations of unemployment. Presently, the CPS accepts unemployment durations of up to 2 years; any response of unemployment duration greater than this is entered as 2 years. Starting with data for January 2011, respondents will be able to report unemployment durations of up to 5 years. This change will likely affect estimates of average (mean) duration of unemployment. The change will not affect the estimate of the number of unemployed persons and will not affect other data series on the duration of unemployment.

There has been an unprecedented rise in the number of persons with very long durations of unemployment during the recent labor market downturn. Nearly 10 percent of unemployed persons had been looking for work for about 2 years or more in the third quarter of 2010. Because of this increase, BLS and the Census Bureau are updating the CPS instrument to accept reported unemployment durations of up to 5 years. This upper bound was selected to allow reporting of considerably longer durations while limiting the effect of erroneous extreme values (outliers).

The new upper bound of 5 years for reported unemployment duration is being phased in over the first 4 months of 2011, as the duration question is only asked of a portion of those unemployed in any given month. (The question is asked of unemployed persons who were not interviewed in the prior month and the newly unemployed. Duration is updated automatically for unemployed respondents who remain unemployed the following month.) By April 2011, all households will have been able to report the new duration upper limit.

Impacts on published estimates

Because of the existing upper limit, BLS cannot determine how many individuals currently have unemployment durations of longer than 2 years. However, given the historically large number of persons classified as unemployed for very long periods, it seems likely that at least some of these individuals may have been unemployed for significantly longer periods than 2 years.

This suggests that current BLS measures of average (mean) duration of unemployment may understate the "true" average duration by some amount, and that increasing the upper limit for reported duration may result in a higher average (mean) duration of unemployment. Only the average (mean) duration of unemployment will be affected in any substantive way by this change in data collection. The median duration of unemployment will not be affected by this change, nor will distributions of unemployment by weeks unemployed.

Publication
BLS will incorporate the new data into the existing official, published data on unemployment duration beginning with data for January 2011. Consequently, there will be a break in series for average (mean) duration of unemployment effective in January 2011, though the full effects of the break in series will not be evident until April 2011, when the entire CPS sample has been able to report the new upper limit of 5 years. BLS also will tabulate, for research purposes, average duration of unemployment data that replicate the current 2-year upper limits. This will allow BLS to gauge the effects of the new upper limit on the average duration of unemployment. These tabulations will be produced through June 2011 and posted on this website.

Public use microdata
Currently, the CPS public use microdata files (produced by the Census Bureau) contain variables on duration that are restricted by the upper bound of 2 years. After the completion of data collection for April 2011—at which point the 5-year upper bound will be fully phased in—the Census Bureau will produce additional variables for the public use files that reflect the 5-year upper bound. (The existing 2-year upper bound variables will continue to be available on the public use microdata files.) The Census Bureau also will evaluate whether the higher upper bound creates any respondent confidentiality issues. CPS public use microdata files containing variables with the new duration upper bound will not be available until after the completion of this confidentiality review. As a result, the release of the public use files for April 2011 and subsequent months may be delayed. Public use files prior to April 2011 will not be revised to include the new variables

http://www.bls.gov/cps/duration.htm

 

[Black Swan]

No love for NFP? Best day of the month

In my limited (2 years I guess) experience, it always does the same thing. Spikes and then shoots off the other way. Sure there's some high vol, but that's nothing to be scared of. Easily the highest expectation days I have are NFPs.

Hell, I keep wondering if I should just trade NFP and get a real job :X

I guess the difference is I don't much care about the numbers, and don't worry about them too much, instead I just play the momentum.

So you wait for the "shoot off the other way" then eh? Top bombing, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[robster970]

What would you do if you were given the numbers now, in secret?

I don't think it makes any different for me NT - even if I did get positioned according to my opinion on the real numbers, the volume and the opinions of the main participants is what matters. So where they go, I follow.

 

[trader_dante]

I agree with Robster. I think the expectations are too high for today after ADP on Wednesday. I really pay no attention to the news but I do cast an eye over the headlines. I see the whisper number in at 200k and talk of a Barclays NFP prediction Model (supposedly with a 95% probability success rate) calling for 450k. My personal view is that unless that number is pushing 250k or higher, then equities sell off and the Dollar sells off too.

 

[meanreversion]

I think the markets are going down irrespective of the number. Commodities are due for a major correction, and it's just begun.

 

[wackypete2]

Maybe a random entry would be better??

Peter

 

[Dinos]

I prefer to sit and wait, enjoy a cuppa whilst the madness ensues, eventually things will settle down, then we can get back to business. There's enough hours in the day to trade, why take a risk.