US Core Retail Sales (MoM) 16 March 2021

JamesThatcher

Junior member
21 0
There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.

I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM) which today has a forecast -0.100.

Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.,
As you can see here.->

Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.
See charts here -->


Other factors to consider in today’s data are the storms that hit the US back in February, which is likely to have prevented US shoppers from hitting the high streets holding back on spending. It's almost certain that this month there will be a big pullback as the effect of that stimulus.

Trade Plan

The markets are expecting some soft numbers, but as all we need is a large enough deviation to get some pips today I’m looking for a 4.0% deviation from the forecast of 0.1
actual numbers deviate from the forecasted numbers.
So 4.1% positive to buy USDJPY (Or Sell EURUSD)
Or -4.1% to sell USDJPY (or BUY EURUSD)
I’m only looking at the other lines of data for a conflict (Deviation in the direction opposite to the Core MoM number) if they all deviate in the right direction with 4% on Core we should expect a slow move on these two pairs USDJPY and EURUSD.

There are too many factors involved today to risk any large money on this one so I will be trading very conservatively.

Good Luck James
 
 
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