ISM Manufacturing PMI March 01, 2021

JamesThatcher

Junior member
21 0
Range of Forecasts
High= 60.3
Low= 57
Avg= 58.67

Therefore I will use a forecast of Median= 58.6
In last 4 months we have seen the following results from this report.

November 2020 Actual PMI result +3.5 above forecast.
This gave +61 pips move over the first minute. 1 min ( 17.4 pips per 1.0 dev)
See Charts -> https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=23939;t=2020-11-02;r=M1

December 2020 Actual PMI result -0.5 this gave negative -17 pips in the first minute (too small to trust)
See Charts -> https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=24927;t=2020-12-01;r=M1

January 2021 Actual PMI result +3.9 This gave a fantastic +70 pips in the first minute ( 17.9 pips per 1.0 dev)
See Charts -> https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=25926;t=2021-01-05;r=M1

February 2021 Actual PMI result -1.3 This gave a +68 pips move over the first minute, 1 min ( 52 pips per 1.0 dev)
see charts -> https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=26826;t=2021-02-01;r=M1

Statistically this report gives approx. 17 pips per 1.0 deviation from forecast Median. Although last month was an exceptionally large move which was illogical

Trade Plan is to trade only with slip control
Trade on DOW
T1/ 2.0 = expect 34 pips, Allowing slippage of MAX of 4
T2/ 3.0 = expect 51 pips, Allowing slippage of MAX of 6
T3/ 4.0 = expect 67 pips, Allowing slippage of MAX of 8
 
 
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