B
Black Swan
Be a good demo at your seminar though eh?
Be a good demo at your seminar though eh?
bbmac
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It pulled back at Weekly Pivot/Daily R1 pivot - the current daily hi in the first 1/2 of a previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone...done here and flat for the day/week now so no more trades...below is what I am see-ing currently though on 1hr re potential supp/res factors....it is finding 'some' demand at the 38.2% of the move up and the topside of the breeched previous descending trend line on that 1hr t/f.
G/L
bbmac
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I think it shows that it is too simplistic to dismiss trading around data, there are some hi-probability set-ups that develop with the right price action bearing them out...although this is, as you said earlier, generally good advice for the less experienced.
G/L
trader_dante
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And some people say S/R seems no more reliable than anything else.
Awesome call, Sir!
bbmac
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U.s NFP due on Friday
It's approaching that time of the month again folks, The NFP circus rolls into town. Actually it ain't what it used to be but on the basis of 'with volatility comes opportunity,' I do still like it - Lol!!
Previous month's headline # was +103k which was well below the foreacst but there was a big drop in the un-emp rate from 9.7 to 9.4%, an upward revision on the month's previous headline # from +39k to +71k and a strong private payrolls addition.
This month the forecast consensus is somewhere around the +100k mark (as of Wednesday and post the ADP forecast which came in at +187k (Another Dreadful Forecast ?) There is talk of an increase in Un-emp rate to 9.5% and this is reflected in the forecasts.
I wonder whether the market will start to factor in that the jobs recovery is probably gonna be slow and gradual with probable set backs ?
As usual I shall try to go where the money goes, looking for any decent immediate post data knee-jerk momentum plays -and/or- any 'sell the 1st hi-buy the 1st pullback / buy the 1st lo-sell the 1st pullback' plays ...all dependant on prevailing and post price action conditions, and hi-probability set-ups developing of course. If nothing develops I will stay flat.
Ahead of this jobs data Friday is the U.s ISM services data and Bernanke, both tomorrow (Thursday.)
G/L
It's approaching that time of the month again folks, The NFP circus rolls into town. Actually it ain't what it used to be but on the basis of 'with volatility comes opportunity,' I do still like it - Lol!!
Previous month's headline # was +103k which was well below the foreacst but there was a big drop in the un-emp rate from 9.7 to 9.4%, an upward revision on the month's previous headline # from +39k to +71k and a strong private payrolls addition.
This month the forecast consensus is somewhere around the +100k mark (as of Wednesday and post the ADP forecast which came in at +187k (Another Dreadful Forecast ?) There is talk of an increase in Un-emp rate to 9.5% and this is reflected in the forecasts.
I wonder whether the market will start to factor in that the jobs recovery is probably gonna be slow and gradual with probable set backs ?
As usual I shall try to go where the money goes, looking for any decent immediate post data knee-jerk momentum plays -and/or- any 'sell the 1st hi-buy the 1st pullback / buy the 1st lo-sell the 1st pullback' plays ...all dependant on prevailing and post price action conditions, and hi-probability set-ups developing of course. If nothing develops I will stay flat.
Ahead of this jobs data Friday is the U.s ISM services data and Bernanke, both tomorrow (Thursday.)
G/L
bbmac
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I wonder to what extent this extra annual variable discussed in the article below will affect the market reaction later,? it is highlighted in bold and italics at bottom of the article.
G/L
----------------------------
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
A couple of days from now will be the first Friday of the month and you know what that means: it’s Nonfarm day! It's unrivalled by any other monthly economic release - with market activity slowing down and coming to a complete halt just before the data is released, thereby giving investors a monthly fix.
The U.S. economy has arguably gone from being in recovery mode to expansion mode with most economic data of late pointing to the same thing: an overall improvement in the U.S. economy. We still have some reservations about the long-term sustainability of some of the current growth drivers, given the dependence on credit, but the near future looks promising. We expect these observations to translate into 150,000 new jobs in January, though the unemployment rate is expected to change for the worst to a slightly higher 9.5%.
ADP: More jobs
The ADP Employment report defied consensus yet again with a strong display, which suggests private net job hiring of almost 187,000 against expectations of 140,000. While services rose most by 166,000 (0.18 percent month-on-month), the manufacturing sector is also awakening from its slump adding 19,000 (0.16 percent). We are getting closer to the level required for sustainable reductions in the unemployment rate and, if we use the ADP as a guide alone, today’s ADP number of 187,000 points to a change in Friday’s private payrolls of 195,000. However, we caution about relying too much on the ADP report given its patchy track record of late as a predictor of private payrolls.
Other labour market reports support our forecast
Initial jobless claims may at an initial glance give the impression that the labour market soured a bit in January, with the four-month moving average of 429,000 in the most recent report from January 21. Furthermore, a few spikes have been recorded last month with readings of 447,000 and 454,000 though both were dismissed as outliers due to bad weather and seasonality. However, if we look at the week in which the nonfarm survey is conducted initial jobless claims fell to 403,000 – boosted of course by those prohibited from filing the week before due to snow. That, however, does not matter for the estimation of nonfarm payrolls and initial jobless claims, which therefore support our above-consensus forecast.
Adding to the positive news is the ISM Manufacturing report, which rose above 60 yesterday to 60.8. And more importantly, the employment index rose to 61.7 from 58.9, suggesting that the manufacturing sector continues to add jobs as also noted in the ADP Employment report. The Labor Differential from the Conference Board also improved in January to -38.2 from -41.8 almost exclusively due to those answering ‘Good’.
Unemployment rate to inch higher
The unemployment rate took a relatively steep dive in December by declining to 9.4 percent from 9.8 earlier, but it's not only due to an improving labour market. The participation rate fell to 64.3 percent from 64.5 percent a month earlier, which suggests that people are still disillusioned with the state of the job market. As people re-enter the labour market upward pressure will be exerted on the unemployment rate. Thus we expect a slight increase in the unemployment rate despite our forecast of a payrolls change of 150,000.
Overall, we expect the report to show that the economy added 150,000 net new jobs in January with the private sector doing all the work. The private sector is expected to show an increase of 160,000, which will be offset somewhat by continued distress at the State and Local sector where we see a further 10,000 decline; hence our forecast of 150,000. The unemployment rate is expected to crawl up to 9.5 percent.
Note: annual revisions to add one-third of a million to last year’s payrolls
The January labour market report is accompanied by the annual revision. We learnt in the preliminary estimate last autumn that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overshot the actual nonfarm payrolls number by 366,000. Unless there are significant changes to the preliminary estimate when Friday’s report is released, you can expect overall payrolls as recorded in March 2010 to be revised downward by 366,000.
G/L
----------------------------
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
A couple of days from now will be the first Friday of the month and you know what that means: it’s Nonfarm day! It's unrivalled by any other monthly economic release - with market activity slowing down and coming to a complete halt just before the data is released, thereby giving investors a monthly fix.
The U.S. economy has arguably gone from being in recovery mode to expansion mode with most economic data of late pointing to the same thing: an overall improvement in the U.S. economy. We still have some reservations about the long-term sustainability of some of the current growth drivers, given the dependence on credit, but the near future looks promising. We expect these observations to translate into 150,000 new jobs in January, though the unemployment rate is expected to change for the worst to a slightly higher 9.5%.
ADP: More jobs
The ADP Employment report defied consensus yet again with a strong display, which suggests private net job hiring of almost 187,000 against expectations of 140,000. While services rose most by 166,000 (0.18 percent month-on-month), the manufacturing sector is also awakening from its slump adding 19,000 (0.16 percent). We are getting closer to the level required for sustainable reductions in the unemployment rate and, if we use the ADP as a guide alone, today’s ADP number of 187,000 points to a change in Friday’s private payrolls of 195,000. However, we caution about relying too much on the ADP report given its patchy track record of late as a predictor of private payrolls.
Other labour market reports support our forecast
Initial jobless claims may at an initial glance give the impression that the labour market soured a bit in January, with the four-month moving average of 429,000 in the most recent report from January 21. Furthermore, a few spikes have been recorded last month with readings of 447,000 and 454,000 though both were dismissed as outliers due to bad weather and seasonality. However, if we look at the week in which the nonfarm survey is conducted initial jobless claims fell to 403,000 – boosted of course by those prohibited from filing the week before due to snow. That, however, does not matter for the estimation of nonfarm payrolls and initial jobless claims, which therefore support our above-consensus forecast.
Adding to the positive news is the ISM Manufacturing report, which rose above 60 yesterday to 60.8. And more importantly, the employment index rose to 61.7 from 58.9, suggesting that the manufacturing sector continues to add jobs as also noted in the ADP Employment report. The Labor Differential from the Conference Board also improved in January to -38.2 from -41.8 almost exclusively due to those answering ‘Good’.
Unemployment rate to inch higher
The unemployment rate took a relatively steep dive in December by declining to 9.4 percent from 9.8 earlier, but it's not only due to an improving labour market. The participation rate fell to 64.3 percent from 64.5 percent a month earlier, which suggests that people are still disillusioned with the state of the job market. As people re-enter the labour market upward pressure will be exerted on the unemployment rate. Thus we expect a slight increase in the unemployment rate despite our forecast of a payrolls change of 150,000.
Overall, we expect the report to show that the economy added 150,000 net new jobs in January with the private sector doing all the work. The private sector is expected to show an increase of 160,000, which will be offset somewhat by continued distress at the State and Local sector where we see a further 10,000 decline; hence our forecast of 150,000. The unemployment rate is expected to crawl up to 9.5 percent.
Note: annual revisions to add one-third of a million to last year’s payrolls
The January labour market report is accompanied by the annual revision. We learnt in the preliminary estimate last autumn that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overshot the actual nonfarm payrolls number by 366,000. Unless there are significant changes to the preliminary estimate when Friday’s report is released, you can expect overall payrolls as recorded in March 2010 to be revised downward by 366,000.
bbmac
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Funny old NFP, an immediate knee-jerk move up on the headline # release was soon repelled from the 76.4% of the then daily Lo - pullback hi, as traders digested the full data. A great first post data 1min PA trigger to get involved on the short side with a regular bearish divergence play on that 1min to boot. 5min then printed a decent bearish candle to do same.... Price dropped to the top of the previous 4hr/daily swing hi zone (previous resistance = potential rbs zone) that also saw a 3 fib cluster round there, namely 76.4% 1hr swing 6003-6277 with the 23.6's of the 4hr/daily swings 5343 and 5405 to same 6277 there too as confluence for a regular bullish divergence play on the 5min.
So, another one bites the dust, but will it have any furher influence on prices beyond the knee-jerk ? Time will tell.
G/L
1min is below.
5min is below
So, another one bites the dust, but will it have any furher influence on prices beyond the knee-jerk ? Time will tell.
G/L
1min is below.
5min is below
B
Black Swan
<shakes head emoticon>...
trader_dante
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B
Black Swan
Thought you swung short yesterday afternoon?
trader_dante
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What are you, my broker? ;-)
bbmac
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Certainly 'a zone' isn't it? The daily previous swing hi zone (potential rbs) goes down to there too. That 4hr potential rbs zone (previous swing hi x 3) is co-existant with/in that daily potential rbs zone. Some fibs of the major 4hr/daily swing lows to the current 6277hi in abouts too. Another more immediate 4hr potential rbs zone just below it.
G/L
trader_dante
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Certainly 'a zone' isn't it? The daily previous swing hi zone (potential rbs) goes down to there too. That 4hr potential rbs zone (previous swing hi x 3) is co-existant with/in that daily potential rbs zone. Some fibs of the major 4hr/daily swing lows to the current 6277hi in abouts too. Another more immediate 4hr potential rbs zone just below it.
G/L
Yes, bro!
I'm long at 02.
DashRiprock
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hi everyone 
for one reason and others i thought id show you a little trade i made for fun after NFP.
you can see the big spike down just after the figure, and then a retrace up to yesterdays low / onight low too. then it sold off again but couldnt puncture into new territory. if you look at teh graph you can see it started to chop around and there was volumes building up from the orange bit on the bottom. this was making me think that a base was in and a long could be good from here.
then the ema turned up and the bars were white so i took a long from where the green line is showing (from open to close).
the exit was 2 blue bars and sideways ema, the high volume was also building there but wasnt anything like as obvious as it is not because the graph shows teh volume up until the picture was taken.
also theres the ticket from the account showing that it was a trade that existed in the present as well as in the past
as you can see i dont really use this account much only 4 trades this year lol.
for one reason and others i thought id show you a little trade i made for fun after NFP.
you can see the big spike down just after the figure, and then a retrace up to yesterdays low / onight low too. then it sold off again but couldnt puncture into new territory. if you look at teh graph you can see it started to chop around and there was volumes building up from the orange bit on the bottom. this was making me think that a base was in and a long could be good from here.
then the ema turned up and the bars were white so i took a long from where the green line is showing (from open to close).
the exit was 2 blue bars and sideways ema, the high volume was also building there but wasnt anything like as obvious as it is not because the graph shows teh volume up until the picture was taken.
also theres the ticket from the account showing that it was a trade that existed in the present as well as in the past
as you can see i dont really use this account much only 4 trades this year lol.
Attachments
bbmac
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U.s NFP tomorrow
Yes it's that time of the month again folks, (no not that one ) It's U.s NFP etc tomorrow. I do like the way ADP revise their previous forecast at their next forecast even though the actual number is known (!?)....speaking of ADP they say +217k headline #, forecast consensus seems to be around +180k (correct as of 8pm gmt) on the headline # with un-emp rate rising to 9.1% from 9.0% Headline number has dissapointed of late with +36k last time, although a lot of attention is now turned to private jobs growth to see if they can take up the slack of federal and stste level public job losses.
As usual it will be the headline #, priavte jobs # and un-emp rate the main focus with revisons to previous #'s also watched.
Favoured scenarios would be:
a. Strong headline number, strong private jobs number, n/c or drop in un-emp rate and upward revisions to last month's numbers...likely knee-jerk reaction = $ strength ?
b. Weak headline number, weak private jobs number, n/c or rise in un-emp rate and downward revisions to last month's numbers...likely knee-jerk reaction = $ weakness. ?
Favoured plays:
a. get involved on any hi-prob momentum plays in the immediate aftermath of the data
b. Classic news play - Buy the 1st Lo-sell 1st pullback -or- Sell the 1st Hi-buy 1st pullback if applicable set-ups develop although if very strong/weak numbers I am not concerned abouyt missing the first stage of these plays.
Whatever the case if no high probability trading opportunities develop I shall stay flat....will see how PA reacts after the data is released with the general aim of going where the money goes if I get a set-up (s)
G/L
Yes it's that time of the month again folks, (no not that one ) It's U.s NFP etc tomorrow. I do like the way ADP revise their previous forecast at their next forecast even though the actual number is known (!?)....speaking of ADP they say +217k headline #, forecast consensus seems to be around +180k (correct as of 8pm gmt) on the headline # with un-emp rate rising to 9.1% from 9.0% Headline number has dissapointed of late with +36k last time, although a lot of attention is now turned to private jobs growth to see if they can take up the slack of federal and stste level public job losses.
As usual it will be the headline #, priavte jobs # and un-emp rate the main focus with revisons to previous #'s also watched.
Favoured scenarios would be:
a. Strong headline number, strong private jobs number, n/c or drop in un-emp rate and upward revisions to last month's numbers...likely knee-jerk reaction = $ strength ?
b. Weak headline number, weak private jobs number, n/c or rise in un-emp rate and downward revisions to last month's numbers...likely knee-jerk reaction = $ weakness. ?
Favoured plays:
a. get involved on any hi-prob momentum plays in the immediate aftermath of the data
b. Classic news play - Buy the 1st Lo-sell 1st pullback -or- Sell the 1st Hi-buy 1st pullback if applicable set-ups develop although if very strong/weak numbers I am not concerned abouyt missing the first stage of these plays.
Whatever the case if no high probability trading opportunities develop I shall stay flat....will see how PA reacts after the data is released with the general aim of going where the money goes if I get a set-up (s)
G/L
bbmac
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some commentary
From ForexCrunch.com http://www.forexcrunch.com/unemployment-rate-under-9-non-farm-payrolls-preview/
Expectations are high once again for February’s Non-Farm Payrolls. We’re likely to see a gain in jobs that will catch up with the falling unemployment rate. Will this reverse the dollar’s losses? Non-Farm Payrolls preview.
There are many positive signs in the US economy: weekly unemployment claims fell under 400K once again, and the 4-week moving average continues to drop. We’ll get another hint on Thursday.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI continues to show strong growth in this sector. The rise upwards to 61.4 points that was reported now is a very positive sign. The Chicago PMI is at 71.2 points. Not only was this a great surprise, but the index is at its highest level since 1988.
Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show a gain of nearly 200K jobs, and compensate for the modest gains seen in previous months, that were also due to the snow. In the past three months, the gain in jobs was significantly weaker than expected, but was later revised to the upside. An outcome of over 220K will boost the dollar, while a result of under 120K will weaken.
But last month’s small gain of 36K was accompanied by a positive surprise from the unemployment rate – it dropped to 9%. It’s also important to look at the real unemployment rate – U-6. This figure, which counts also the people that are discouraged and aren’t searching for a job, dropped nicely from 16.7% to 16.1%. This sure helped the US dollar.
The unemployment rate returns to the center stage. It’s expected to rise to 9.1%. A drop under 9% will provide a psychological boost to the dollar, while a rise to 9.4% or higher will convince the skeptics that last month’s drop was a one-time event. A drop of the “real unemployment rate” under 16% will also be greeted by the dollar.
The US dollar is falling – this is mainly due the rising price of oil – a result of the turmoil in the Middle East. While the situation in Libya is relatively stable, the Arab peninsula is warming up with trouble in Bahrain, Yemen and even in Saudi Arabia. But around the release of the NFP, the market will focus on the US economy, and the release will be in the limelight.
From ForexCrunch.com http://www.forexcrunch.com/unemployment-rate-under-9-non-farm-payrolls-preview/
Expectations are high once again for February’s Non-Farm Payrolls. We’re likely to see a gain in jobs that will catch up with the falling unemployment rate. Will this reverse the dollar’s losses? Non-Farm Payrolls preview.
There are many positive signs in the US economy: weekly unemployment claims fell under 400K once again, and the 4-week moving average continues to drop. We’ll get another hint on Thursday.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI continues to show strong growth in this sector. The rise upwards to 61.4 points that was reported now is a very positive sign. The Chicago PMI is at 71.2 points. Not only was this a great surprise, but the index is at its highest level since 1988.
Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show a gain of nearly 200K jobs, and compensate for the modest gains seen in previous months, that were also due to the snow. In the past three months, the gain in jobs was significantly weaker than expected, but was later revised to the upside. An outcome of over 220K will boost the dollar, while a result of under 120K will weaken.
But last month’s small gain of 36K was accompanied by a positive surprise from the unemployment rate – it dropped to 9%. It’s also important to look at the real unemployment rate – U-6. This figure, which counts also the people that are discouraged and aren’t searching for a job, dropped nicely from 16.7% to 16.1%. This sure helped the US dollar.
The unemployment rate returns to the center stage. It’s expected to rise to 9.1%. A drop under 9% will provide a psychological boost to the dollar, while a rise to 9.4% or higher will convince the skeptics that last month’s drop was a one-time event. A drop of the “real unemployment rate” under 16% will also be greeted by the dollar.
The US dollar is falling – this is mainly due the rising price of oil – a result of the turmoil in the Middle East. While the situation in Libya is relatively stable, the Arab peninsula is warming up with trouble in Bahrain, Yemen and even in Saudi Arabia. But around the release of the NFP, the market will focus on the US economy, and the release will be in the limelight.
