U.s NFP later today

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
As usual the monthly circus of U.s NFP rolls into town @ 1230pm gmt and I wonder if the headline number comes out anything like the forecast of +530k jobs (bigged up by Goldman) wether we will see a good buy $ reaction, like the 'old days.' Reaction to NFP has afterall been somewhat muted over recent months. As usual market reaction will depend on the actual number's deviation from the forecast and deviation from last month's +290k headline as well as any revisions on last month's and of course there is manuf jobs component, un-emp rate and to an extend av hrly earnings to consider. The pre-data and immediate pre-data moves and theimmediate post data knee-jerk can be different from any move that sets-in after market participants digest all the data and implications.

With volatility comes opportunity.

G/L all.
 
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B

Black Swan

0 0
Well once all the chaff is sorted from the wheat the realisation hits that these figures are beyond dreadful, out of circa 450K jobs created 420K were created by the govt on yet another census? How many noncensus (es) is this, 3 since Obama took office? What the fook do they ask; "Hi, havn't been here since the last quarter, anything changed? Sign here please Maam.."

Can't figure out the dollar rally on the strength of these figures, usual nonsense re. Euro worries etc...quite simply the US cannot afford this and creating 30-40K jobs a month in the private sector is going to take 2 lifetimes to recover. 50% of their unemployed (the U6 figure?) is now long term - +27 weeks...

Anyhow, thankfully there are well read online publications in the US such as The Huff that tell it as it is...

Job creation by private companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year, as a wave of census hiring lifted payrolls by 431,000 in May. The unemployment rate dipped to 9.7 percent as people gave up searching for work.

The Labor Department's new employment snapshot released Friday suggested that outside of the burst of hiring of temporary census workers by the federal government many private employers are wary of bulking up their work forces.

That indicates the economic recovery may not bring relief fast enough for millions of Americans who are unemployed.

Virtually all the job creation in May came from the hiring of 411,000 census workers. Such hiring peaked in May and will begin tailing off in June.

By contrast, hiring by private employers, the backbone of the economy, slowed sharply. They added just 41,000 jobs, down from 218,000 in April and the fewest since January.

"Although the economic outlook is improving, the recovery is still pretty tepid," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

President Barack Obama acknowledged that temporary census jobs drove the overall payroll gain. But he said private sector hiring is growing. He noted five straight months of job gains after devastating losses from the recession. He said the recovery is still in its early stages, and that it will be uneven in the months ahead.

"Things never go completely in a smooth line," Obama said during a speech Friday. "This report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day."

However, the weakness in private hiring rattled Wall Street. Stock tumbled and bond prices rose, as investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasurys. The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 175 points in early trading.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/04/unemployment-rate-may-201_n_600432.html

Late on Thursday evening, Democrats were arguing on the House floor over the size of a jobs bill that was two days overdue for a vote when word started to filter through the chamber that the Senate had adjourned and was leaving for the Memorial Day break. With no Senate, there could be no bill.

"People were astounded. I mean stunned," said freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). "We're in the midst of this debate and trying to find a path to doing the right thing and they went out on recess? Without addressing these issues? Some of which have deadlines? I mean, there are going to be unemployed Americans who will not have their unemployment extended."

On June 1, several programs, including extended unemployment benefits, will expire. By the end of the week, 19,400 people will prematurely stop receiving checks, according to data from the Department of Labor. How long will it take the Senate to finish the bill? With Republicans promising to stand in the way, leadership will need to file at least one time-consuming "cloture" motion to break the filibuster and to set up a vote by the end of the week in the best-case scenario. By the end of the following week, the number of premature unemployment exhaustions will climb to 323,400. The week after that, 903,000. By the end of the month, 1.2 million.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/28/deficit-eclipses-jobs-in_n_593914.html
 
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bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
It's NFP again- Hoorah !!

Nfp bandwagon marches into town later...

Forexcrunch.com see it like this...there are 7 scenarios for the Non-Farm Payrolls and their effect on the dollar:

1.NFP at -100K, private sector +40K – exactly as expected. Choppy trading but no significant move.
2.NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +70K or better – better than expected. Dollar gains sharply.
3.NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +40K – better than expected – dollar gains.
4.NFP at -70K or better, private sector unchanged – surprising but mixed – dollar stalls.
5.NFP at -150K, private sector at +40K – disappointing but not too bad – dollar retreats.
6.NFP at -150K, private sector unchanged – disappointing – dollar falls.
7.NFP at -150K or worse, private sector at -40K or worse, a significant loss of jobs in the private sector. This is the worst case scenario that will raise the talk of a double dip recession. In this case the dollar will gain on risk aversion.


Re scenario 7 above--surely not before some knee-jerk $ weakness to such a scenario??

Anything can happen

G/L
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,501
My opinion is that we are in for better than expected numbers & we'll get a lift out of it - stocks/futures wise.

I have no real evidence for this & I'll not be placing a trade before the numbers. I'll be at a party tonight and then drive to the beach, so I'll not be trading at all.

It does seem there's been a lot of pessimism released lately and the last few days have been a bit more rosy in terms of economic news. I suspect pessimism has impacted the forecasts and so I expect to beat.

Also – I’m a bit suspect of this whole economic release cycle business. Whilst I don’t think the govt is purposely massaging the released numbers to cause market gyrations, I do think the estimates are managed to do that.
 

N Rothschild

Legendary member
5,296 603
1.30pm. if you cant get the time right, what hope is there..
 
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JDTRADER

Experienced member
1,462 24
Re: It's NFP again- Hoorah !!

2.NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +70K or better – better than expected. Dollar gains sharply.
3.NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +40K – better than expected – dollar gains.

Anything can happen

G/L

I'm short EUR/USD so come on option 2 & 3 :sneaky:
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
Good news IMO in relation to the -100k forecast. WRT ES, reckon people got positioned during the base that was formed over the end of last week. Look at the OI rise 6% in 6 days and then subsequent shorts got squeezed earlier this week. ES now positioned to challenge 1100 area and the continued fight with the bears loitering above that level. Congested quite badly between there and 1120 IMO.

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say initial reaction down on news and then it will be recovered and surpassed in RTH as people realise it's actually about par for the course.

Anyway, been long since Monday night so if it wobbles around a bit, should be ok.
 
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robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
LOL - exactly the opposite - better numbers.......
 

redart

Established member
890 248
lots of people on elitetrader posted long ES trades a few mins before the number release. That must have been some obvious , 'free money' that I missed out on!
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
Of those 7 scenarios posted earlier (source forexcrunch.com )...opposite of no 2 or 3 played out so far:

1. NFP at -100K, private sector +40K – exactly as expected. Choppy trading but no significant move.
2. NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +70K or better – better than expected. Dollar gains sharply.
3. NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +40K – better than expected – dollar gains.
4. NFP at -70K or better, private sector unchanged – surprising but mixed – dollar stalls.
5. NFP at -150K, private sector at +40K – disappointing but not too bad – dollar retreats.
6. NFP at -150K, private sector unchanged – disappointing – dollar falls.
7. NFP at -150K or worse, private sector at -40K or worse, a significant loss of jobs in the private sector. This is the worst case scenario that will raise the talk of a double dip recession. In this case the dollar will gain on risk aversion.
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2 x high probability plays garnishes good pip gain on the lower t/f's ...1335pm - the 1330pm 5min candle closes bullish above recent 5min congestion afetr rejecting lows at point X....Then Price sells off an overbought read at the 5460/75 offers and then tests the said previous congestion range top on 5min where a 1min hidden divergence set-up develops to get long again.

G/L

2ptq73s.gif


 
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JDTRADER

Experienced member
1,462 24
Eur/usd

Well at this point I'm right no pop above 1.2900 with no clear direction.

So maybe not today which means I will have to hold over the weekend, (I'm not a big fan of that) but from Monday a slow drop down again I think.

No more for me to do so have a good weekend and see you all Monday.
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
Snatching here and there on the lower t/f's even on NFP..what happened to the days of 300pip knee-jerk moves in a straight ,line and then some...I dunno...barmy summaer afternoons, jumpers for goalposts, marvellous - isn't it ?

G/L
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
Headline number comes in better than expected (-54k -vs- -100 to -130k forecast consensus) Private pyrolls also come in above expectations and a positive revision to last month's number revised to -54k from -131k..av hrly earnings above forecast and last month's- @ +0.3% but un-emp rate climbs to 9.6% from 9.5% as widely forecast...So make of that what you will...I am glad I am a tech trader Lol!!

G/L
 
 
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