Trading the ES (E mini) December 2003

Not so good today

Today was a bit messy. The H&S on the ES gave clues. As I am looking for LHs in a downtrend, my signal to short would have been on the middle spoke of those three red lines.

This area of congestion on the right shoulder in the ES showed up as a HH MA and then a bit confusingly for me a LL MA and a HL ES. Therefore, the ES was showing more strength than the ES.
I am beginning to believe that when the ES does not follow the Tick that the ES takes charge. Maybe Sand and China could have a think about this. We did get a small upside move which eventually formed the right shoulder on the ES.

The beginning of the day was crappy. I think I should avoid trading those times and the end of the days congestion was made for a quick draw scalper. My tools of two screens and IG don't let me do this. That is changing, hopefully next week.
 

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Sandpiper, you have got me thinking

Chart overlay, Tick and ES.

ES above Tick. We are in an uptrend.

ES below Tick, We are in a down trend.

Tick rising but ES struggling, not a strong move.

Tick falling but ES not falling as fast, weak down move.

Look at the ES Tick cross over lads.
 

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This is getting better

Lads

Just posting a chart of yesterdays action.

My set up is 5min chart with a 2min VWMA and a close only ES super imposed on top of it.

X is long and Y is short.

The spokes are entries dictated from the Tick high or low.
My M8 marmites MACD TICK Divergence is still used however, the position on the ES is important. This is the dogs leash that is going to give us perspective. Look at the end of the day. HLs in tick MA but the ES did not follow, were as at the start of the day, the Tick and ES shadowed each. Zero Tick cross overs also make more sense.

I will Analise each individual entry this afternoon. I am also writing a paper on this system over the weekend. If you want to include anything, give me a shout.

Mark, can you do me a favour and explain your addition to all this.

Cheers
Andy
 

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stoploss,

goes without saying that I am using ES, Macd of Comp Cash, Tick and Macd of Tick screens lined up next to each other. I tend to post only Tick and Macd of Tick here on T2W since u can attach only 1 chart in a post. Tick chart without the Price Action chart right above it is totally meaningless :)
 
sorry completely forgot - hope u'll excuse me for posting another one :)

stoploss - I may hv an explanation why u find tick readings messy on Friday. Per system, on a trend-day (confirmed at all 3 snapshots at 10;30, 13:00 and 14:15) Tick is a secondary indicator and shud be used mainly for scalping. The reversal-back-to-trend point on such scalps is usually 40 ema/5min.

Tick is primary indicator (per sys) on non-trend days and on trend reversal days (or +10/-10 as some ppl call them).
 
Andy,

I'm a bit confused about some of your entries however I'll wait till you give us more details later. I'm sure it'll become clearer.

I like the perspective that superimposing the ES gives you - however dont you think you could risk maybe missing the highs or lows? I could well be wrong though - Yesterday going long at 1059.50 (LOD) would have got a maximum of 3pts and more realistically 1.5 - 2 pts so you wouldn't have missed much (by China's standards ;) ). Definitely worth keeping an eye on...

Now my view - I've been watching both the regular and reverse divergence. China has amply covered the regular with his tick/macd of tick, tick/es divergence and it was something I used successfully on thursday.
My addition would be the introduction of reverse divs for staying with the trend rather than fading it - there were about 16 pts on offer yesterday using both reg and rev divs.

For example: you enter short on a reg. tick divergence above the 1st hour upper Pivot. The market slips slightly lower then enters the chop with messy bars spiking about the place but seeing the ES not breaking the previous high as the tick goes higher and makes reverse divergence (ie yesterday 1320), you know its probably smaller cap stocks on the uptick thus making it look stronger than it actually is. All in all - safe to stay short or get short if you didn't take the original signal.

Now since yesterday I've also noticed the MACD diverging with the tick during the reverse div. Could this be giving a stronger signal (like in China's div) ? I will take a look back and see if there is anything in this...

Keep up the good work mate.

Mark

PS: China, quick question - sorry to be thick; now I know it gapped down yesterday but how did you conclude yesterday was trend day at 1030 when it was heading up and didn't break thursday's low? Thx in adv.
 
Mark_m

naz < -1% naz/comp > 2:1, sox lagging comp (% wise and with regard to all key averages), and comp and ndx below 240 and 600 ema/5min but spx below 240 but above its 600 ema/5min. trend down day with neg divs across indices. ESSENTIALLY higher beta beating lower beta on the down side.

thez definitely something in yr Rev Divs. i am also combing thru past data here trying to formalise the conclusions. let's keep in touch on that. brilliant work mate, many thx!
 
btw mate - u right - 2 pts on a scalp is stretching it too far with front-end volatilities at about 17%. I usually go for 1.5 pts with a tight 1.5 pts stoploss of coz. Arithmetical payout on such a scalp is obviously zero, but since the odds r skewed in your favour, Expected payout on such scalps is, I'd say, somewhere btwn 12 and 16 teenies.
 
Hi all,
Still wading thru the posts from a couple of weeks ago.
Can someone please explain what is meant by sox leading naz,
naz leading dow and bix leading spx.
Is naz the comp or the 100 and what does 'leading' refer to.
Will have a charting package with the appropriate settings for Monday so at last I'll be looking at the system in real time rather than hindsight.
Thanks for all the info,
hampy
 
hampy

hello mate. naz is comp. ndx is 100. sorry if i confused u :)

let me explain what I mean by leadership when i determine a trend day.

say ndx beta aginst spx is X - some number > 1.

STRICTEST VERSION: if ndx-spx cross at 10:30 time tivot is showing internals greater than X, we get advanced move in high-beta index, call it "head's up" or "all'armi" - trend at that time pivot.

MILDER VERSION (which I am using): internals must be indicative enuff, but the key is ndx-spx behaviour with respect to their key averages. Say on Friday, ndx well below ITS 240 and 600 emas/5min whilst spx below ITS 240 ema, but above ITS 600 ema.
With more than 2:1 internals - it's a trend day with neg divs across indices.
 
Mark

I have changed it a bit more today so not all the X and Ys will be there tomorrow. The overlaying ability in 7.5 is going to come in useful but I will explain more tomorrow.

Need a kebab and my bed.
Andy
 
lads btw - totally off-topic - any1 up to see the New Yr in in Mexico? let me know - looks like me and me better 'alf :) r gonna be in Mexico City on Xmas and down south on Yukatan peninsula for the N.Y. wud b wicked to meet up and get up to no good :)
 
Here it is

Good morning to you all. I hope you all had a great week end so far.

Thanks to Sand pointing out the over laying ability in 7.5, I have been looking at Fridays ranging messy action on Friday. China only made 5 points on Friday. Mate, if you carry on like the, you will be ending up selling the Big Issue soon.

Mexico for NY. Sounds good mate but I can't make it this time round. Tell you what Rodders, if this system works, this time next year, will be millionaires so will def be coming over. :cheesy:

Right, down to business. Here is the first chart of the ES. The ES is the important one because we can't trade the Tick. Have a look what I have attached and in my next posting, I will relate Tick to ES.

A quick correction YG is YF, YH is YG and so on.
 

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The New Tick Set Up

First of all, let me give you the set up.

5 minute Tick chart
2 minute VWMA OHLC
Overlays
ES, white line OHLC
SOX, red line OHLC

China, you may disagree with these beta being used. Lets see if you agree with where I am going with this. We can talk about this on messenger. If anyone else, wants to discuss this, we could organise an online meeting.

What are we trying to do here. Make money and not draw pretty charts. How do we want to do it. Buy low, sell high, sell high, buy low. In an up trend, we are buying the dips and scalping the tops if we are nimble enough and have the right equipment and plan. In down trend we are selling the lower highs and again scalp if we can. How about consolidations. We are told assume that they will break in the direction of the present trend. Does this always happen. No. So what do we need. First of all to understand the set ups on the ES such as chart patterns and secondly, some sort of filter that will stop us getting Roger Moored.

To the action.

XA
The ES gapped down so we expect that it will attempt to fill this gap. We are now looking for a HL ES long entry. On the Tick, ES is above the SOX which is above the 2 minute VWMA and we are hugging the zero line.. I would have preferred that the SOX would be above the ES. This tells me that we I will try a long but the up side may be limited. The trigger is the break of the Tick bar above the ES line.

XB
Similar set up again on ES. This time, the SOX is above the ES which is above the VWMA. The long trigger is the penetration of the Tick bar above the SOX or the ES. This depends how aggressive you are. The text book entry on the ES corresponds to the the Tick/ES break. One more thing to mention is that between XA and XB,we have HLs in and the SOX made HH.

YC
On the ES, the pivot was broken but did not hold as support. Straight away, we have alarm bells going off. What is our Tick chart doing. A question for Sand here, The ES is above the VWMA and the SOX is beneath them all. Would you call this a weak futures move as per the Prem. The way I see it, the SOX was weak and it dragged the ES down.

XD
A HL in the ES. Do we go long. I suppose we do. Would it be a strong move and a possible an other attempt at the pivot that would at least make a double top. Back to the Tick. VWMA below zero, SOX above ES. We did have a rising Tick but no confirmation in MACD. A long with an exit at the first sign of negativity. Knowing what I know now, yes.

?
Is this a right shoulder short. I thought so. It was a bit hasty. The SOX was by now beneath the ES but the VWMA is above zero. It did not work. Why not. I suppose it just didn't. We are playing the odds. Skim, what do ou think of this move.

XE
Are we going long here. HL ES, rising Tick but look at the SOX beneath the ES and VWMA zero. The MACD looks ****e too. Thanks but no thanks.

YF
LHs and LLs across the board on Tick chart and SOX was looking very ill. This is our right shoulder.

YG
ES makes LH and look at the SOX, ES VWMA set up. Add shorts.

YH,
VWMA is making HLS. The Tick is rising and the MACD is looking positive. Are you buying the bottom. Look at the position on ES and SOX, especially the SOX on the Tick chart. Here we are selling tops near resistance. One thing I did not mention. Have you noticed how I have positioned the spokes on the red bars. It is when the Tick breaks beneath the VWMA we short.

YI
YI man. Sorry, I had to say that. Same short method.

YJ
This is the best short. Why, we are shorting at Thursdays low.

In summation we have, Chinas MACD Tick method. We support and Resistance on the VWMA. We have relative strength and beta set ups and finally we a reverse ES, Tick divergence.

I hope all this makes sense.
Andy

Correction, there is a yellow line at the bottom. Not sure why I put it there.
 

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I have just noticed one more thing on this chart. We failed the tick failed to penetrate the ES or SOX at XD or XE.
 
China, Sand,

If this is doable, we need discuss tic tacs concerning Tick cross overs across VWMA, SOX and ES. That is the only area that I have identified that needs some fine tuning.
 
matey now I c what u mean.

this is actually potentially a big thing. Sadly, my QCharts does not allow such overlaying - that is why I need to run several windows at the same time.

One Q tho if I may. When u overlay, say streaming quotes, say ES and SOX, how do u "normalise" them? R u taking mrkt kick-off at 9:30 as 100%, where they r pegged to each other, and then display their % values to the open? If that is the case, how wud u "normalise" Tick on such a chart? IMO the opening value of Tick is quite meaningless. I am probably missing something here.

Also, if u stream several quotes on 1 chart, how do u go about displaying their key averages? U may recall that I tend to compare indices not just %wise, but also in relation to their respective key averages. Your interface will perhaps allow u to display all those things on 1 chart, but don't u reckon it'll be a bit messy?

matey slap me with a big trout if I am missing something here :) I am still a bit jaded here after last night's tequila-fest :)
 
Slp, As you know I am a couple of weeks behind, still reading and studying all the posts.
With your latest version of the system are you going to be looking at the 'prem', or have you discounted it.
cheers,
hampy
 
Hampy

I just want to see how perfect we can get this Tick. What I must emphasize is the action in the ES dictates how we read what is going on. The PREM is going to be another monster. Lets do one thing at the time.

China

Mailing yo know.
 
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