Trading and Blackjack

sidinuk

Established member
624 5
In my opinion there are 3 types of blackjack player: the tourist, the amateur and the professional.

1. The tourist just sits down at the table and starts making random calls depending on how they feel. They don't know basic strategy and so stick on 16 against a 10 or double on 12 because 'they feel lucky'. They ask their mate or the bloke next to them for tips on what to do. Casino's love tourists because they have a huge edge over them and will clean them out fairly quickly.

2. The amateur has taken the time to learn basic strategy and has worked out a decent money management system to keep him playing longer. The edge that the casino has over the amateur is not very large which allows the amateur to have a few good winning streaks which fools him into believing that he might be a naturally gifted blackjack player. This hope keeps him playing long enough for the casino's edge to play out and he'll end up broke.

3. The professional knows basic strategy and money management. He has also learnt to card count effectively. He knows that in certain situations he will actually have the edge over the casino and he exploits those times by betting big. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he losses, but he knows that over time his edge will play out and he will walk away with more than he started.


Trading is exactly the same. There's the 'tourist' who doesn't really understand what he's doing, watches CNBC for tips all day, believes anyone that says they having a winning system that can make him rich, takes too much risk in trades and winds up broke pretty quickly.

There's the amateur who understands how the game works but hasn't yet developed a trading system with an edge. He'll get lucky every now and then and just put the losers down to experience. He may stay in the game long enough to become a professional with an edge, but then again he might not. It depends how lucky he is.

The professional has identified an area where he has a specific edge (which he spotted as an amateur) and now exclusively exploits this edge. He doesn't trade when he doesn't have an edge. His money management then keeps him in the game long enough for this edge to play out, and slowly but surely he takes the money from the tourist and the amateur.

So which are you a tourist, an amateur or a professional? What is your edge?
 

DaxTrader

Active member
229 2
Good post Sid

I'm a pro when I make money, but then lapse to being an amateur until I return full circle having re-learned old lessons, notably, doing trades in a marginal trading enviroment.

It is the same thing as you describe under the "Amateur" section

ie Trading when there aren't trades to do (without an edge).

Losses focus the mind, I stop trading, analyse what I am doing, then head down the pro route for a few weeks/months till I get bored again. Silly really.

These diversions are getting less frequent, but can't see them dissappearing all together. Problem is, need to be attentive to spot the trades, which tempts you to trade when you shouldn't, but doing something to occupy you when there isn't much about often makes me miss trades....
 

Splurge

Member
88 3
Sidnuk,

Ive been a pro many times then becoming an amateur when the system breaks down. I have yet to find a holy grail and for me nothing surpasses the need to constantly change with the markets moods while always sticking to a given set of rules.

I regard a system as one which yells at you to buy and then yells at you to sell again.

Im not there yet....I just make sure I make more than I lose

Splurge
 

FatCanary

Member
51 0
I stopped being a tourist when I stopped watching Bloomberg and listening to everyone's opinions.

One of my main problems stopping me progressing to amateur (and beyond :LOL:) was taking notice of 'experts' predictions. It has taken me a long while to believe that no-one knows for sure where the market is going next.

Not sure I have an edge yet but I suspect that when one has an edge coupled with sound money management they become a 'professional'.

FC
 

ZigZag

Active member
123 0
Re: Sidinuk & Fatcanary posts.
There is more pearls of wisdom in these two posts than 80% (80:20 rule) of books and courses on trading. Well done chaps.
 

madasafish

Well-known member
470 5
I still play blackjack for money occasionally. Usually make £200-£500 in a week's trading on holiday.. I am not a big gambler.

Agree iwth the comments.. sometimes even amateurs get it right.. I watched a drunk win £20,000 in a night altering bets seemingly at random , doubling where he should not have, not drawing when he should etc..

Chance plays more part in cards than trading imo....
 

stevem12

Active member
135 1
Sid
well done very good post/thread :D

I agree in the main with the comments, but would add that you need an edge over the house in blackjack, but only over tourists and amateurs in trading.

Two men are running from an escaped lion, man1 says to man2, " what makes you think you can out run the lion?"
Man2 replies "I don`t have to out run the lion, I just have to out run you" :LOL:

Steve
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
By George He's Got It

FatCanary said:
I stopped being a tourist when I stopped watching Bloomberg and listening to everyone's opinions.

One of my main problems stopping me progressing to amateur (and beyond :LOL:) was taking notice of 'experts' predictions. It has taken me a long while to believe that no-one knows for sure where the market is going next.

Not sure I have an edge yet but I suspect that when one has an edge coupled with sound money management they become a 'professional'.

FC

Very true. An excellent post.
 

Zenda

Well-known member
491 10
I agree - you must Evolve .....

I've been trading for a number of years - for my little contribution :- I agree that as a trader you can be influenced in the early years by what you see on these Bulletin Boards and also By Newspapers journalists and Bloomberg - No matter how hard you try whatever you read see or hear - it does influence you.

The only thing that has really helped my trading has been the continued development of trading software and platforms,
from when I started. I must have tried all the Forex & Trading Platforms introduced over the period eliminating most as ineffective or at least lacking in sophistication in one or more areas. In spreadbetting Platforms I've tried Cantor, IG, Deal4Free (the worse) tradindex and ended up with what I consider the Best of a bad bunch finspreads.

I really need to be at one Visually with the Charts I like too see clearly where I am - so many are rubbish but there are some excellent ones - The latest (forex platform) which is totally trading from a chart - is perhaps the most complete one available today, far in advanced of every other system (my personal opinion) is the Visual Trader from www.cms-forex.com you can download a demo.

Only experience and a very long time scale, learning the mistakes and controlling your emotions - coupled with money management make you stay in trading, however a good platform helps.

But I am in complete agreement with the above posts Novices amateurs and survivors are how I classify them ! Forget the theories expounded on these boards even today people who are admitted failures on these boards are now plunging into seminars at over £250 a time - This frightens me - and I do feel for all those mugs who sign up!! But if Vince & Darren can make a killing - its worth a try neither of them have any credibility but constantly get away with it because of the toothless FSA -

Over 7,500 members on these boards - I wonder how many who tried trading have not continued - If they follow 95% of the rubbish I read here from so called experienced traders expounding their theories systems and seminars - Read them for a laugh most are a constant source of amusement to me :LOL:

FTSE Beater & Chartman - You probably and genuinly think you can impart your knowledge (??) for the benefit of new and experienced traders- thats rather sad - you could be teaching them all your bad habits as you have yet to show your proven successful credentials on these boards but 4 or 5 grand is not bad for a saturday! boys!!- you may be very good at contributing to trade2win posts - but teaching trading systems (Dow) we need you to explain your success with it to the people on these boards - You decide!! but Laurel And Hardy springs to mind - My continued amusement is assured. :cool: Incidently FTSE beater looks too young!! is it an old photo ??
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
stevem12 said:
Two men are running from an escaped lion, man1 says to man2, " what makes you think you can out run the lion?"
Man2 replies "I don`t have to out run the lion, I just have to out run you"

Spot on. I made a post (god know's where) the other day about the 5% winning traders and the 95% losing traders. A ratio of 1:20. But you don't have to be 20X smarter than the average punter (tourist/amateur) to consistently make money - just that little bit smarter.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,604 1,742
judging from today's :eek: :eek: trading, I'm an amateur who thinks
he's a professional but just proved he's a tourist :rolleyes:
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
Well BJ sorry to hear that, but some days you're hot, some you're not!

Good point about 'are we at the level we think we are' though.

Reminds me of the transition we all go through in anything we set out to master (like driving a car, trading, etc.)

From Unconscious Incompetence to Conscious Incompetence then to Conscious Competence and finally to Unconscious Competence.

I think that's about right...
 

Naz

Experienced member
1,391 22
sidinuk said:


The professional has identified an area where he has a specific edge and now exclusively exploits this edge. He doesn't trade when he doesn't have an edge. His money management then keeps him in the game long enough for this edge to play out, and slowly but surely he takes the money from the tourist and the amateur.

What is your edge?

Nasdaq level 2 direct access.

I can see whats going to happen before the tourist and the amateur can from from their intraday charts.That edge gets me in a trade before they see the move coming and gives me the same edge when getting out.
 

wisestguy

Well-known member
471 0
BJ as a game has a corelation to trading but nobody as usual has outlined what are the relevent points .

To win a BJ you must count cards , ie ) give big point values to big cards 10 to ace , neutral value to medium cards and none to small ones .

the bigger the score , the more you bet , the less the score , little or nothing that you bet.

that 's it generally . But as with anything that makes you win , it takes a lot of discpline and time , with small to medium pots , you may have to spend hours at a casino playing non stop .

I find that you can 2x your money , but you will be watched and if the house does not like what you are up to - you'll be banned.

a game more closely related is poker.

cue someone , as always - start a thread inspired by a WS article . nah just joking ... or am I ?
 

Windlesham1

Well-known member
443 35
Cards have sod all to do with trading. 2 types of people gamble-1.the house or bookie,and 2. the loser-anything else is urban myth/statistical anomoly/laser scanner. Most methods of trading work,as does a martingale at the casino or betting shop-you just need a big enough pot not to get blown up,and the ability to manage losses.
I know you're thinking what about LTCM?-well they could have weathered the loss with enough funds.
Contentious,moi?
 
 
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