In my opinion there are 3 types of blackjack player: the tourist, the amateur and the professional.
1. The tourist just sits down at the table and starts making random calls depending on how they feel. They don't know basic strategy and so stick on 16 against a 10 or double on 12 because 'they feel lucky'. They ask their mate or the bloke next to them for tips on what to do. Casino's love tourists because they have a huge edge over them and will clean them out fairly quickly.
2. The amateur has taken the time to learn basic strategy and has worked out a decent money management system to keep him playing longer. The edge that the casino has over the amateur is not very large which allows the amateur to have a few good winning streaks which fools him into believing that he might be a naturally gifted blackjack player. This hope keeps him playing long enough for the casino's edge to play out and he'll end up broke.
3. The professional knows basic strategy and money management. He has also learnt to card count effectively. He knows that in certain situations he will actually have the edge over the casino and he exploits those times by betting big. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he losses, but he knows that over time his edge will play out and he will walk away with more than he started.
Trading is exactly the same. There's the 'tourist' who doesn't really understand what he's doing, watches CNBC for tips all day, believes anyone that says they having a winning system that can make him rich, takes too much risk in trades and winds up broke pretty quickly.
There's the amateur who understands how the game works but hasn't yet developed a trading system with an edge. He'll get lucky every now and then and just put the losers down to experience. He may stay in the game long enough to become a professional with an edge, but then again he might not. It depends how lucky he is.
The professional has identified an area where he has a specific edge (which he spotted as an amateur) and now exclusively exploits this edge. He doesn't trade when he doesn't have an edge. His money management then keeps him in the game long enough for this edge to play out, and slowly but surely he takes the money from the tourist and the amateur.
So which are you a tourist, an amateur or a professional? What is your edge?
1. The tourist just sits down at the table and starts making random calls depending on how they feel. They don't know basic strategy and so stick on 16 against a 10 or double on 12 because 'they feel lucky'. They ask their mate or the bloke next to them for tips on what to do. Casino's love tourists because they have a huge edge over them and will clean them out fairly quickly.
2. The amateur has taken the time to learn basic strategy and has worked out a decent money management system to keep him playing longer. The edge that the casino has over the amateur is not very large which allows the amateur to have a few good winning streaks which fools him into believing that he might be a naturally gifted blackjack player. This hope keeps him playing long enough for the casino's edge to play out and he'll end up broke.
3. The professional knows basic strategy and money management. He has also learnt to card count effectively. He knows that in certain situations he will actually have the edge over the casino and he exploits those times by betting big. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he losses, but he knows that over time his edge will play out and he will walk away with more than he started.
Trading is exactly the same. There's the 'tourist' who doesn't really understand what he's doing, watches CNBC for tips all day, believes anyone that says they having a winning system that can make him rich, takes too much risk in trades and winds up broke pretty quickly.
There's the amateur who understands how the game works but hasn't yet developed a trading system with an edge. He'll get lucky every now and then and just put the losers down to experience. He may stay in the game long enough to become a professional with an edge, but then again he might not. It depends how lucky he is.
The professional has identified an area where he has a specific edge (which he spotted as an amateur) and now exclusively exploits this edge. He doesn't trade when he doesn't have an edge. His money management then keeps him in the game long enough for this edge to play out, and slowly but surely he takes the money from the tourist and the amateur.
So which are you a tourist, an amateur or a professional? What is your edge?
) was taking notice of 'experts' predictions. It has taken me a long while to believe that no-one knows for sure where the market is going next.
