Time to chat

[nero1]

After 5 years i decided to open a thread to discuss my view about markets. I have more than 30000 hours of research now,so i decided to correct some of the things i said, if it needs to be done. The point of this thread is not to make you rich,since i am not going to share a special indicator,or whatever, but to give you insights about trading.
If you have a guestion that i can answer i will be happy to do that. If there is not a question however this thread will be closed since i am opening it just for a chat, and i have no interest in anything more.

 

[tomorton]

That sounds great nero1. There's always something to learn from experienced traders.

For a kick-off, what about something which I personally find just the most tricky issue. What would be your favourite technique for deciding when/where to exit a winning trade?

 

[nero1]

i know tens of techniques of where to enter or exit,unfotunately i can only use one,which should be the best or propably a combination of those. To answer your question more efficiently if you want to exit a trade you should do it when you realize that the trend has finished, you can enter in different timeframe and exit in another timeframe.
Its not a good idea to exit in targets since there are hundrends of techniques for targets.
You should know a combination of overpriced methods together with targets to exit efficiently at the exact top,and in non volatile markets,it doesht work very well

 

[nero1]

I cannot tell you my favorite technique becouse i know tens of technigues and my favourite technique could be a complicated system that you cannot use, if you realize that, like most traders, you dont have the knowledge to find the exact top, then you can easily find a SIMPLE technique to exit.

 

[nero1]

Since you have publicly stated in a post some day your method,i will have to tell you that you have found the right solution, you dont need to try to find the exact top ,as in the long term your method as it is,or modified, will give better results.
Although i dont really know the success of it, i imagine it may be better than many pro hedge funds results.

 

[nero1]

To my friend BATSONAR, although i dont watch your posts,or your thread, in order to save you time and effort,i will tell you that simple indicators,like what you have find, dont work in markets except you already know the trend, that means that your indicator CANNOT find the trend, except if your indicator is already used by big hedge funds,which i doubt.
So you better close this thread and stop waisting your time,i have done what you do, more than a decade ago

 

[barneydunn]

I haven't found an indicator yet that takes up a new window at the bottom of the chart that merits that space. I'd rather see the chart itself bigger with just a few moving averages and wait for the right looking price action to get me into a trade.

As for exits I asked a question a while ago about the best exit methods and got some interesting replies. If I'm trading a whole trend, maybe on a 1 minute chart then I just like to trail behind the 100 sma until I get stopped out. That sometimes works really well and keeps you in for longer than you would normally hold open but of course sometimes it gets you out halfway through a good trend that just took an extended pause. You can of course always reenter if it looks right. On a 4 hour or daily chart I'm more inclined to just trade the swings and trail behind the previous candle. My view is that on a good momentum run the price shouldn't break the top or bottom of the previous candle (depending on your trade direction). As soon as it does then banking your profit isn't a bad idea.

I don't know how well that fits in with your views?

 

[nero1]

I agree with everything you said, if i used price action i would prefer to close the position if a candlestck closed under the previous candle.

 

[barneydunn]

I agree with everything you said, if i used price action i would prefer to close the position if a candlestck closed under the previous candle.

I'm a bit tighter than that and just move the stop up a few pips behind the last candle.

 

[nero1]

I dont trade forex and i wouldht advise people to trade through buckeshops,i think whatever you do the outcome will be negative anyway in the long run

 

[barneydunn]

What markets do you trade and why are they that much better?

 

[nero1]

I trade the stock market in my country,and i will start trading DAX soon.
Cfds are not a real market,you trade against your broker,the platform is just a videogame,
etfs,stocks and futures are a real market, with micro contracts you can trade small in a real market.
With stocks you can trade or invest in thousand of stocks.

 

[barneydunn]

Honestly though the difference between the "real" market and a cfd is minimal because any differences get arbitraged very quickly. I find that if you trade the chart you've got you can still make money. I know someone who trades dax and nasdaq through a UK based "bucket shop" broker and averages £2000 a week. I can never seem to replicate what he does even though I have his exact system drummed into my head. He is a machine. I can make money on 1 min charts of forex or more often indices but it's more hit and miss and I tend to do well for a while and then start dropping back, maybe just my own psychology. I tend to do a lot better on 4 hour, daily and weekly charts where I have more time to consider things and fundamentals come into play more. I have never found trading stocks to be very easy on lower timeframes just because of the spread and transaction costs, even with very liquid stocks. Each to their own though.

 

[nero1]

Brokers would prefer to copy your friends trades,than take his money .Bucketshops in general dont interfere since they know that 99% of traders will lose their money anyway so they dont need to do sth,the moment you give them the money,they know its theirs.

 

[barneydunn]

Well you have to give them your money through poor trading, they don't steal it, you go in with your eyes wide open. Or at least you'd hope most people know what they are getting into when they take this thing on. There are always going to be gamblers who don't want to work and just want to put in a few hundred to make a few thousand. They are almost always going to lose. A patient trader with experience can trade most instruments through most brokers and still come out ahead. It's a question of preparation, determination, discipline and lots of other things. If you don't want to do the work you are likely to lose. If you are prepared to put the work in you can do it. I think the instrument, broker, etc are largely not important. Of course you need the best broker you can find but if that's a "bucket shop" then so be it. I think a lot of people like to make excuses and say it was the broker who caused them to lose money. Chances are they just don't know what they are doing. My own experience is mostly UK traders trading through spread bet companies for the tax free income and I know plenty of people who make money so it's not the platform, broker or anything else that makes the other whatever percent lose.

 

[nero1]

The people who make money now can be bankrupt in a year,very few make money(LOTS OF MONEY) consistenly,.
How do you know they make money, you have their account number?
Markets are in bull maket 13 years,even a monkey can make money.

 

[barneydunn]

I don't know for an absolute fact what most of them make but yes I have seen the accounts of one and he is making lots of money consistently and has been for 15 years just scalping 1 min charts. I don't have any reason to doubt the others, they've given me plenty of solid advice over the years. A bull market doesn't make much difference to a scalper.

 

[nero1]

Only if someone can buy and sell in both directions is consistent,only in one direction is no an edge,not either comsistency,,whether is 1'' or hourly,i have my doubts for your friends.
If someone tells you he is a pro tell him to give you evidence he can gain money in both sides, anything else is only words.

 

[barneydunn]

I'm not desperate to gain confirmation of what they are telling me. The main person I get my advice from has shown me his accounts and traded live in front of me more than a few days so I have no doubt about what he does. I also have no doubts that I can't easily do what he does which is a shame. I can do my own thing reasonably well though and that's all that matters. Just as you can do your own thing well.

 

[barneydunn]

You also seem very knowledgeable and willing to pass on some wisdom to less experienced traders which is admirable.