Thoughts on Jan 31 ( Brexit)

[emery1990]

Hi,

What are people’s thoughts on the direction of cable in the last few days before the U.K. goes into the transition period?

As it’s still falling from the U.K. election results, I’m seeing if it carry’s on and breaks the 12942 area which was the last support then it could carry on falling.

But not to sure if it’s seen as a positive or negative ATM. I.e good that we’ve finally left but bad that there is 11months to get a deal through or a no deal Brexit may happen.

 

[tomorton]

I see GBP/USD doing exactly nothing unusual. A bit up, a bit down. Overall, following the same pattern as a week before and a week before that.

31/01 is a legally significant date which Parliament and the EU are unable to vary, but that day changes nothing in economic terms. I expect there will be some volatility as we start to get news and rumours concerning actual relationship arrangements for post-31/12 - and these could be wild.

 

[FXX]

Hi,

What are people’s thoughts on the direction of cable in the last few days before the U.K. goes into the transition period?

As it’s still falling from the U.K. election results, I’m seeing if it carry’s on and breaks the 12942 area which was the last support then it could carry on falling.

But not to sure if it’s seen as a positive or negative ATM. I.e good that we’ve finally left but bad that there is 11months to get a deal through or a no deal Brexit may happen.

the fall is more associated with rate cut expectations than election results. Boe is tilted towards cutting at the end of the month due to weak economic growth

 

[ffsear]

This trend-line is key. A break of this and we could see 1.2800.

On the fundamental side we just had terrible retail data last week, and BOE decision coming up next week. If they signal rate cuts then I think we will see downside.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Agreed, but as already pointed out, Sweet F A will happen at the end of January as that is just a political date -
None of the rules governing trade change at all, there is merely the entry into the transition period.

However, the end of the Year will be another matter entirely ......

 

[NVP]

Hi,

What are people’s thoughts on the direction of cable in the last few days before the U.K. goes into the transition period?

As it’s still falling from the U.K. election results, I’m seeing if it carry’s on and breaks the 12942 area which was the last support then it could carry on falling.

But not to sure if it’s seen as a positive or negative ATM. I.e good that we’ve finally left but bad that there is 11months to get a deal through or a no deal Brexit may happen.

it will go up sometimes (hint buy it)
it will go down sometimes (hint sell it)

thats what i think
N

 

[MasterOfCoin]

& a note on that end-of-year thing ...

So, the UK is set to leave the European Union (EU) in nine days, which will be followed by a transition period that will end in December 2020.
But Nausicaa Delfas, head of international at the UK Financial Conduct Authority, is now warning financial firms that they need to be ready because there could be NO trade deal with the EU by December.

"Firms still need to ensure they are prepared for a range of scenarios that may happen at the end of 2020," she said on Thursday (today at post date).

Hmmmmmm.

Average Time to negotiate + ratify an international trade deal: 7 Years.

Barmy Bonkers Brexit Timeline ~ 11 months remaining to have everything in place and ready to roll.

Anyone taking a spread bet on the outcomes ??

 

[Signalcalc]

& a note on that end-of-year thing ...

So, the UK is set to leave the European Union (EU) in nine days, which will be followed by a transition period that will end in December 2020.
But Nausicaa Delfas, head of international at the UK Financial Conduct Authority, is now warning financial firms that they need to be ready because there could be NO trade deal with the EU by December.

"Firms still need to ensure they are prepared for a range of scenarios that may happen at the end of 2020," she said on Thursday (today at post date).

Hmmmmmm.

Average Time to negotiate + ratify an international trade deal: 7 Years.

Barmy Bonkers Brexit Timeline ~ 11 months remaining to have everything in place and ready to roll.

Anyone taking a spread bet on the outcomes ??

+3.5 years of moronic MPs attempting to stop the process, another 11 months is bonus time.

 

[tomorton]

+3.5 years of moronic MPs attempting to stop the process, another 11 months is bonus time.

Last time I ever bother voting in a referendum......

 

[counter_violent]

Last time I ever bother voting in a referendum......

Just as well you did....I doubt we will be having any more anytime soon.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Indeed, indeed.

I've no interest in what the Moronic Persons want or don't want to do.

The choice was very simple: Stay in or get out

The Sheeple voted LEAVE.

So they should get the Flip on with Flopping, exit with all due speed and sort out the rest from there.

If they didn't want the result, then more fool them for holding a vote.

All the rest is pointless damaging dither and delay.


It matters not whether it's a good decision, the right decision or even a completely crazy decision.

The decision was taken.

End of.

Get on with it.

 

[Signalcalc]

Indeed, indeed.

I've no interest in what the Moronic Persons want or don't want to do.

The choice was very simple: Stay in or get out

The Sheeple voted LEAVE.

So they should get the Flip on with Flopping, exit with all due speed and sort out the rest from there.

If they didn't want the result, then more fool them for holding a vote.

All the rest is pointless damaging dither and delay.


It matters not whether it's a good decision, the right decision or even a completely crazy decision.

The decision was taken.

End of.

Get on with it.

Careful now, talking up democracy in the UK might start a whole new thread in which to participate

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Commemoration coin being released into circulation on 31 January.


"Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations." * ** ***


* (except nations remaining in the EU).
** Oxford comma omitted by design.
*** Prospering perhaps from the million coins melted down, previously bearing this slogan.

 

[trendie]

Is anybody going to trade Friday and the following Monday?
Do you anticipate any shenanigans on Friday, price-spikes, fake-outs, dealing-desk delays, etc.
Are you likely to hold any positions onto the weekend?

I am inclined to scale down and close on Thursday, and even let Monday pass to see any consequences. I know you're supposed to use this an opp to make loads, but I feel staying out is best, as its not a normal and repeatable event. (I rely on repeatable patterns).

Others?

 

[tomorton]

I hadn't thought anything unusual would happen Friday or Monday. Are you picking up any signs of anything?

 

[trendie]

I hadn't thought anything unusual would happen Friday or Monday. Are you picking up any signs of anything?

Nope.
In the same way I stay away from NFP afternoons.
These rareish events are difficult to make a plan for, and test for.

I have a terrible Swiss "drop off a cliff" Franc vibe to this.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Brits MEPs booted out the EU parliament to the tune of 'Auld Lang Syne'

 

[trendie]

So, are we all still here?
Sun still rose today. Lights are still on, so I guess we made it through.

Although I did get an email from Prince Boris Johnson, who had £350million he wanted to give me.
There was a small handling fee, so he wanted my bank account and sort code.

Does that seem legit?

 

[barjon]

 

[counter_violent]

View attachment 273913

View attachment 273913

There will be a whole raft of those soon. Will the last one out turn out the lights.