Oil Macro Thoughts Anyone?

[jimmieo]

Newbie here.
I decided to regroup mentally today and try to write down some cogent thoughts on both sides . If anyone has further thoughts I'd like to hear them. BTW after running through this excercise I came to the conclusion that watching the price action from the sidelines is probably the safest idea given the state of the market. I would appreciate anyone's input or pointing out things I have missed. This was a hell of a move but where do folks think we go from here?

Bullish Crude
-Libyan deal appears to be a pipe dream (see nothing changed)

-NATO appears to be incoherent at the wheel of the "regime change mobile" ATM (see Sarkozy, Obama et al)

-Substantial unrest still existssee Yemen, Syria, Egypt,Bahrain, UAE)

-a pet name has been assigned to MENA mess (see The Arab Spring)

-The Saudi's don't appear to be big "Arab Spring" fans (see Tom Donilon trip to Riyadh today)

-Looking back to '08 there were several large pullbacks on the way up to the lofty heights


Bearish Crude
-Goldman announces they are selling their Easter baskets (no religious pun intended) and the futures markets puke as the elephant stomps the little guys to death

-Although Big Ben needs/wants inflation, he can't afford it to be the 'runaway train variety' therefore all govt mouthpieces are required to make bleating demand destruction noises (see IEA,IMF & other alphabet soup clubs)

-Consumer demand destruction is occurring (see mastercard or just hang out at a Costco gas line)

-Last week 80-year-old former Saudi oil minister, Shake Yermoney put out a $200 to $300 barrel price as a possibility in the context of something happening in
Saudi Arabia. (see RIP Billy Mays)

-Looking back to '08 the falling knife carved a huge hole in anyone that got under it

 

[jimmieo]

Ya I know it's lame but I'm replying to myself.

So what have we learned?

-Brent is driving the train
-Mena is still hosed
-There was potentially a bizzarre drawdown in product inventories in the US (I say potentially because I'd want to see confirmation of a downdraft continuing on this, wouldn't be the first time stats were bs).

The huge draw has me wondering just how much light crude is missing from this picture? Either the draw is BS or maybe there's more to the picture.

I know refinery utilization is down but demand should also be sputtering a bit? The thick plottens.....

 

[wackypete2]

I don't trust oil stats, drawdown, output, etc one bit. Oil is probably the most manipulated market in terms of actual product available, price, and the new releases.

Just my thoughts. I could be all wrong!

Peter

 

[jimmieo]

Agreed but as a public data point I do pay attention to try and glean the directional on the manipulations. As a former commercial I watched a lot of stats roll that were so blatantly off it was laughable.